Wednesday, August 28, 2013

My two Cents on The Military intervention in #Syria and Its impact on #Egypt

So it seems that there will be a foreign military intervention in Syria so soon , may be with in days or even days.
I believe that a direct foreign military intervention in Syria is the last thing Egypt really needs now. Oh yes the direct foreign military intervention in Syria will make the public demand a military rule willingly to protect Egypt from the foreign conspiracy going after the strong Arab armies in the region. “Yes there is a deliberate misleading info in the media that the Syrian Arab army is extremely strong army and that it is the second strongest Arab army in the region after Egypt”
Thanks to the Egyptian media people began to support Al Assad and his regime as well his army against the Islamists above them the Muslim brotherhood and Al Qaeda. There is a deliberate misinformation when it comes to what is said and how it is said about Syria in the Egyptian mainstream media.
The Nasserites already support El Assad despite their idol Nasser used to curse his father and Baathist altogether. Of course these are the Neo-Nasserites.
The Egyptian people believe that Egypt will be the next after Syria and Iraq. Simply Now Egypt has got the true remaining army in the Arab world thus it will be the target after Syria and Iraq. General El Sisi seems to be the upcoming president of Egypt  with no competition what so ever now as a military man can protect the country in that critical time in the eyes of many Egyptians especially with the fiascoes of the first elected civilian president aka Morsi.
With the rising nationalism in Egypt and how the majority of people believe conspiracy theories now just like their belief in God , I fear that the military intervention will make them believe that the whole world especially the West is truly plotting against Egypt
The latest conspiracy theory supported by the state “through its official newspaper Al Ahram” now is how the West or the US was planning to divide Egypt starting with the independence of Upper Egypt through the Muslim brotherhood. The military action and what will follow in Syria will support this theory.
Anyhow what alarms me not only the rise of Nationalism/military rule in Egypt but the fact that Egypt is facing a challenge in Sinai called Jihadists and we may find ourselves in front of another wave of Jihadists who fought in Syria and want to return back will find no welcome from the regime or the public.
Informed sources once told that the army had to move against Morsi and Muslim brotherhood when he stood in June 2013 and declared that Jihad was OK in Syria. It was and is still a national security nightmare for Egypt because Jihadists are more radical and dangerous than the Muslim brotherhood.
This scenario of course depends mainly on the possibility that the military intervention succeeds in bringing not only Al Assad’s regime down but also the Jihadists. "So far all sources speak about short strikes to cripple Al Assad only"
 It will be like Afghanistan déjà vu once again. It will be like living a mix of the 1960s and 1990s at the same time !!
As I said above those Jihadists will not be received as heroes from the public or the army and now the Islamists or Jihadists can not stomach the army after happened in June 30th thus I fear the army will not face Jihadists only in Sinai but rather will face them from the West , from Libya. It is worth to mention that mainly Jihadists that fought in Libya went to Syria to fight there including Al Qaeda militants.
Anyhow I wonder many times why God made Egypt in the middle of the Middle East. It is as if fate and all forces of nature are just against having a true democratic transition in Egypt like any other country. Internal factors are not only against having a true democratic transition but also external factors.
I am sorry if I am seemed to be selfish and speaking about my country now.

6 comments:

  1. It seems to me the main responsiblity lies with the countries in the region, but they have done nothing so far. Except for helping the refugees of course. So now the eyes of the world look at US and EU, and if they will react they will be damned in in the ME. If they do not they will be damned in the ME.
    There will not be an intervention, just airstrikes, I suppose.
    It is a mystery to me why many Egyptians do not pity the victims of the gasattacks. Of course, they have a lot on their sleeves, but still...

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    1. It is amazing how many educated Egyptians believe in conspiracy theory. Particularly when demagogues like Sabahi declare that the Syrian strike is a prelude to attacking and dismembering Egypt which America and the west has been planning for centuries. And The United States is the strategic ally of the MB. These are facts for most Egyptians.

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  2. Didn't Hamdeen Sabahi oppose and condemn Assad in the past? Do the Neo-Nasserites want to create a detente with Iran? Interestingly, that would put them even further at odds with Saudi Arabia.

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  3. The 25th January 2011 Revolution Is Against The Old Regime And The WEST. It Will Take Long Time To FREE Egypt (And The Arab World) From Occupation.

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  4. What has the Mickey Mouse 'Arab League' ever done to help resolve conflicts between Arab countries.....nothing, they leave the dirty work for western countries, then they turn around and criticize the west!

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  5. US soldiers will not go into Syria.

    Many more people (Arabs, mostly Sunni) are going to die in Syria. This is going to be a test for the Arab world.

    US and Israel and the West will not be responsible for those deaths but Iran, China, Russia and Hezbollah will be. And Arab nations will be standing by watching, helpless except for the jihadists who will be heroes until they start blowing up everyone in sight, chopping off hands and shooting school girls in the head.

    Why can't 200 million Arabs enforce peace in Syria? Because their minds are still occupied when the occupation is over. They blame all misfortune on the occupier who is long gone. Its never the Arabs responsibility, its always someone else.

    It was Erdogan who said "Muslims are not capable of genocide" when he welcomed the other Bashir- indicted war criminal Omar Bashir of Sudan. I certainly hope he is right.

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