First of all as a disclaimer , I am not a political analyst and this is my blog aka my space where I think and rant loudly as I want. Second I support Syrian revolution since day one since it started as small protests in Daraa. Third I do not support any of the fighting groups now in the war torn misfortunate country whether Al Assad regime or FSA or Al Qaeda.
All what I care for the Syrians now are their rights in dignified life , democracy and justice based on human rights and diversity that suite one of the greatest and most ethnic and religious diversified nations in the Arab world.
Here is what I think :
- Based on all the official statements and unofficial leaks from United States, UK, France and Israel it seem that there will be some sort of a military action in the upcoming 48 hours or 72 hours.
- It will not be a direct intervention like in Iraq or Afghanistan at least for the United States as the majority of the public opinion is against military intervention in Syria. Most possibly air strikes in Al Assad strongholds in the country to cripple him.
- I believe both Salim Idris and Manaf Tlass “especially the later as he is KSA’s favorite option” will play some roles in the upcoming days. Latest thing I read in Arabic news websites recently that Tlass would lead a rebel army that gets rid from both Al Assad and Al Qaeda”
- I believe also there are 24 hours leaders’ telephone calls now in the neighbor countries of Syria :Turkey , Iraq , Lebanon , Jordan and of course Israel.
- I fear sorry for Lebanon because it will be dragged to hell either ways. Hezbollah can attack Israel and Israel made it clear today that it will not stand still against any attack. Israel is also concerned about that Jihadists heaven next to its door step !! For God sake AIPAC supported what happened in Egypt just to get rid from the Muslim brotherhood and Jihadists in Sinai.
- Iraq , Iran’s ally and thus Al Assad’s ally said earlier today that it will not allow anyone to use its skies.
- Turkey got two things to care about in this crisis : The Kurds and the Jihadists who are using the country as a gate.
- Jordan is in Saudi Arabia team.
- I do not see Qatar playing a strong role now as it seems that the fall of the Muslim brotherhood in Cairo with the help of its rival Saudi Arabia turned things around. KSA’s princes are playing a bigger role in the current crisis more than Qatar as it seems.
- Yes it was not a US Vs. Russia or US Vs. Iran thing only but it was also Saudi Arabia Vs. Qatar and it seems that the elder Kingdom won that round thanks to the fall of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt
- By the way many people were shocked by Russia’s stance on how it will not go to war for Al Assad. Well dear friends Russia will not start a world war for Al Assad , it did not do for Serbia for God sake.
- Egypt’s stance is officially clear : It supports Syrian revolution as well Jihadists there and against chemical weapons too as well against military intervention in Syria.
- Egypt’s stance is clearly opposite to Saudi Arabia’s stance. It is one of the enigmas in the Middle East.
- Egypt supports political solution in Syria. “yes it is an irony that the Egyptian government now does not support political solution in Egypt itself !!”
- Egypt also calls for another round of Geneva talks. Sadly I remember ElBaradei declared that he was preparing for this meeting. Now I see that there is a war council held in Jordan and Egypt was not even there. “At it was not announced officially”
- Egypt or rather Egypt’s army is now busy with the internal issues woes.
- Now I wonder what the FSA ,especially its Conservative groups think or do regarding the military intervention from the US and UK. Of course the important is what Al Qaeda’s Islamic State Iraq and Syria will do in front of this Western military intervention.
God bless Syria and Syrians.