Ok enough of the side talk and let’s concentrate on things that really matter , what next will be for Gaza??
The bombing of the sector is still going on on a daily basis for the 5th day in a role. Israel is using its IAF and INF to bomb the city and its IDF is waiting outside the sector to start its land operations against Hamas.
There will be a land operation sooner or later , the Israelis planned for it and Hamas knows despite the fears that Hamas may stand against this ground attack in the same way Hezbollah stood.
Still there is still difference between Hamas and Hezbollah and I think Israeli is counting on this difference. There is difference between South Lebanon and the Gaza sector from the geography that gave advantage to Hezbollah fighters. Still the crowded Sector can give advantage for the Hamas fighters too.
Hezbollah has much stronger and sophisticated intelligence and logistics than Hamas. Not to mention the direct support of countries like Iran and Syria also Hezbollah is a state inside the state. Israel thinks that the siege of Gaza has weakened Hamas and the Gazans despite the rockets of the Palestinian militias.
FYI these rockets are not advanced or powerful like Hezbollah’s.
Israel knows that its legendary IDF won’t be able to win a guerrilla war , no organized army can conquer easily a guerrilla war especially that now the Gazans have more reasons to fight back ,I believe it is something in our psychology as Arabs.
Olmert said that it was not going to be a long war and he is true. He does not want to raise the public opinion in Israel against him. Already the rockets are still falling down in Israel and it is expected that there will be human losses in the IDF as soon as the land operations starts , any realistic army should put in its mind its expected human loses and the fact it may not achieve all. This can be bad for him in time of the elections. Everyone agrees that all this war is used to score votes in the Israeli elections. If Olmert fails this time , the Israelis will remember his fiascos in the Lebanon war 2006 and add to it Gaza 2009.
of course Obama is going to swear soon in the White soon and so there is no need to continue this operation up till he starts his work at the oval office. Obama sooner or later must prove he is real change from Bush. His position is very critical. He wants to win the Islamic and Arab world at the same time he does not want to lose the AIPAC’s support.
By the way there is a change in the tune of the Israeli officials towards Hamas elimination. Livni said that this operation was not for eliminating Hamas !!?? She knows very well that this is an impossible target but on the other hand I wonder what that operation is about if it is not about Hamas elimination !!??
Another thing the Egyptian Regime along with the other so-called moderate regimes like the Saudi Regime will look so bad if Hamas wins this in the same way Hezbollah did regardless of the victims number.
I think the Israelis will bet on a very long term truce. The more they destroy and the more they show their wrath and willing to push violence further, the longer and more stable the next truce will be. I think now, Olmert cabinet are trying to maneuver a little bit politically to prepare the Israelis for the next truce instead of wiping out Hamas. Both sides will be happy with that truce. But they will continue showing their unshaken will till the last bullet before ceasefire. The next truce will be stronger simply for the same reason Hezbollah will think twice before attacking Israel after 2006 war. People of Lebanon suffered a severe destruction such that they won't give much support for any further violence (Plus the "moderation front"-backed propaganda factor which tries to convince them more). The problem now in Gaza, that Egypt have no longer credibility in Hamas. Who will mediate? The credibility of the mediator will reflect upon the credibility of the truce, IMHO. Qatar is one option. They are doing so much work *way* bigger than it's real size. Syria is *not* an option. Jordan might be an option. Who is credible now? That's a big question..
ReplyDeletethere will be truce but not for fear especially with the Israeli losses,why do not you think in the other way , the Israeli state does not want more tough lessons
ReplyDeleteIsraelis & tough lessons?!
ReplyDelete500(+/- 10) vs 5(+/- 10)?!
Gazans learned the toughest lessons ever in terms of mass causalities & destruction while Israeli causalities among civilians and IDF forces are still very quite few. I have support and sympathy for resistance but I don't buy much of Hamas propaganda about IDF losses. We experienced *centuries* of defeats, so we tend to exaggerate.
The key to understand what is going on & what's is next is: "Israel strategic depth". Regardless of Israeli propaganda and varying tones of aggression. They execute "carpet bombing" on Gaza & Hamas and whoever act/want/will to resist. They do understand that they can't wipe out Hamas. They have lessons from PLO in Jordan 1970 (by proxy), PLO Lebanon 1982 and PLO in Tunisia 1985, and Hezbollah in Lebanon 2006. That is why they utilize the temporal US cover and "punish", violently as possible via carpet bombing, the people of Gaza until the internal and international pressure start to put the operation to an end.
From the moment of ceasefire, every supporter of Hamas, IMHO, whether in Gaza or in Arab world will ask Hamas to protect it as much as possible. We will accept the truce.
Nevertheless, few months later Israel will air strike assassinate a Hamas leader and a new cycle will start and so on... or what mathematicians call "ad infinitum".
What we really should do it to support people of Gaza. Reliefing of Gazans is a direct support of Hamas and Arabs should pursue that.