Israeli DEBKA and American Wall Street have published two interesting reports yet unfortunately they are for the premium subscribers only and so if any WSJ subscriber or DEBKA care to share the summary of these reports with many Egyptians include me , we will be very very thankful.
The first report is from Israeli DEBKA and it is about that war between Omar Soliman Suzanne Mubarak :
This is what I found about it in the Google reader :
Egypt's first lady does not want her son to succeed his father as president. Because of their spat and other squabbles at the top, the general election was a shambles and Intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman emerged as leading contender for the presidency.
The second report is from American Wall Street Journal and it is about a new contender to Hosni Mubarak and Gamal Mubarak :
CAIRO—A new face has emerged as a possible contender to follow Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak as leader of the Arab world's most populous country.
Mr. Mubarak, 82 years old and recently recovered from gall-bladder surgery, hasn't named a successor, refusing even to appoint a vice president, ahead of presidential elections slated for next fall. For nearly a decade, there have been two presumed candidates in line to succeed him: Gamal Mubarak, the younger of his two sons, and Omar Suleiman, the country's powerful intelligence chief.
But some Western diplomats, senior members of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party and political analysts .
Is Charles Levinson speaking about Mohamed ElBaradei a the new contender !!?
seriously Z you still believe in Elbaradei after he declared he will not run as if he can with an 80%NDP house. Baradei is a great twitter opposition voice but sadly that's about all.
ReplyDeletePart 1:
CAIRO—A new face has emerged as a possible contender to follow Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak as leader of the Arab world's most populous country.
Mr. Mubarak, 82 years old and recently recovered from gall-bladder surgery, hasn't named a successor, refusing even to appoint a vice president, ahead of presidential elections slated for next fall. For nearly a decade, there have been two presumed candidates in line to succeed him: Gamal Mubarak, the younger of his two sons, and Omar Suleiman, the country's powerful intelligence chief.
But some Western diplomats, senior members of Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party and political analysts in Cairo say a new contender has emerged: Ahmed Shafiq, the minister of civil aviation and a former commander of Egypt's air force, who spearheaded a turnaround begun in 2002 at the country's flagship carrier, Egypt Air.
"Shafiq has a good reputation. He's tough, honest, and low-key," a senior official in Egypt's ruling party said. "His name is definitely out there."
Diplomats cited a recent column by the editor-in-chief of the progovernment, state-controlled Mussawar magazine touting Mr. Shafiq's merits as a sign of his rise. Mr. Shafiq declined to comment for this article.
Mr. Mubarak, in power nearly three decades, hasn't said whether he will seek another term. If he doesn't, he could pick a successor to run at the top of the NDP ticket, making his choice the favorite to become Egypt's next president.
Rivals from outside the party, such as the former head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, have generated some enthusiasm, but currently appear to have little hope of posing a meaningful challenge to the political regime.
Mr. ElBaradei has said he views himself as a symbol for change and not a political leader. In a video posted on his Facebook page Wednesday, he called for a boycott of the election and for mass demonstrations.
Amid persistent questions about Mr. Mubarak's health, the lack of a known successor has worried Western diplomats and Egyptian officials.
"Everyone expected to have some clarity by now," said a Western military official in Cairo who works closely with Egypt's military, which has been the key power broker in Egyptian politics. "At any time, we can see a sudden power vacuum."
A vacuum would increase the chance of a protracted power struggle in the ruling party. Rivalries reach up to Mr. Mubarak's inner circle, according to officials in Cairo. That circle of military commanders, security and intelligence officials and party bosses would likely decide Egypt's next ruler if Mr. Mubarak dies or becomes incapacitated without naming a successor.
Part2:
ReplyDeleteThe succession prospects of Gamal Mubarak, 47-year-old head of the ruling party's policy committee, were once almost unquestionable, but appear to have faded in recent years, as a series of policy initiatives, including economic overhauls, have been stymied. He and his allies have long appeared locked in a power struggle with an old guard that has maintained a tight hold on Egypt military and security apparatus. Mr. Mubarak declined requests to be interviewed.
Many observers say Mr. Suleiman is the most likely successor. He is President Mubarak's closest aide, charged with handling the country's most sensitive issues. He also has close working relations with the U.S. and a lifetime of experience inside Egypt's military and intelligence apparatus.
But in recent months, his public profile has diminished, triggering speculation his star also may have faded. And his age, 74, could be an obstacle.
Mr. Shafiq, meanwhile, appears to be able to navigate between the two power centers inside the NDP. The 69-year-old is a former Air Force commander, as President Mubarak was, and served under Mr. Mubarak's command. He comes from a relatively limited cadre of powerful retired generals serving in influential civilian roles. He is a trusted Mubarak-family confidant, according to Western and Egyptian officials.
He has also proved his managerial skills, dragging Egypt's commercial air sector into the 21st century. He spearheaded massive upgrades to Cairo International Airport and transformed the country's once-rickety national air carrier.
"He's a very stable person, very balanced, and very quiet," says Osama Ghazali Harb, a former NDP official and ally of Gamal Mubarak, who broke with the regime in 2005 and now edits an influential political journal. "But most important, he's very trusted by Mubarak himself."
according to amendments to the constitution, the PM takes over if the President passes away or becomes incapable of ruling. My money is on Mubarak changing PMs after he had secured his new presidential term and installing someone he sees as fit to take over. Shafik's name isnt new or anything, he is respected, esp after the good job he did w the new airport terminal and his name was repeated several times in whispers every time there were speculations about changes in the PM position. Now the trick is will Mubarak live long enough? will the ppl be patient enough? what do other strong men of the regime think of Shafik or whomever appears to have some favour and what is their individual ambition? is the army that controlled to agree to whomever the regime wants to install or do they share the feeling many Egyptians have that enough with the NDP and its men? Only time will tell and I do believe God has his way of mocking the plans of those rulers who believe they got it all under control. Also, Shafik in the end is one of them, and for me none of them top figures has clean hands.
ReplyDeleteMore and more this reminds me of how Egypt ended up with an empty throne when all the Mamluk leaders killed each other off.
@anonymous , Dr. ElBaradei made it clear since day one that he will not seek presidency and does not seek it as long as the 7 demands required by the NAC are not met
ReplyDeleteAnyhow moving to Mohamed Shafik , well this is the first his name is mentioned internationally in that way considering that the WSJ, the bible of Wall Street.
For sure the name of Shafik is mentioned but again just like Soliman he can't be 100% by Gamal Mubarak and his mom that he would leave the chair or keep for the son after his dad departure
Sorry Ahmed Shafik , I confused
ReplyDeleteSome notes about Shafiq's mangement skills in saving Egyptair.
ReplyDeleteIn 2004 Lufthansa needed a regional hub to expand operations for its StarAlliance group, since Emirates and Qatar airlines rejected previous offers from the German carrier(probably not feasible to them), the Germans decided that CAI would make a perfect regional hub to tackle the ever increasing competition by other mideast airlines and naturally CAI location served them better anyways due to proximity to Europe and being on the African continent which will ease line sharing with their other staralliance member in SA.
Lufthansa approached EgyptAir with a starallaince membership and the latter naturally accepted because of its mediocre state, lousy reputation and still suffering from the alleged Batouty suicide(flight 990). A new terminal was needed for star allaiance memebers in CAI and because of the fiasco construction of terminal2(Arab Contractors Co.) and its inoperable shuttles, Lufthansa insisted that any future upgrades to existing terminals and the new terminal must be under German supervision and construction must be granted to another German subsidiary without any Egyptian subcontractor. Mangement in Terminal 3 after its completion was still undecided whether to be left with the Airport authority but after it was built and Lufthansa observed how the Egyptian airport co ran terminals 2 and 1, it decided to give management to another German company(Fraport). Fraport is also expected to take over terminal2 after upgrades.
All upgrades to the 2 terminals and construction of 3 were fully paid by Star alliance(i.e. Lufthansa)
Lufthansa also played a major part in revamping Egyptair, its catering and ground services.
There you have it.. Shafiq's skills: designed, built and supervised by Germany.. but of course all this could not have been possible if it weren't for the grace of president shithead.
@Last Anon: thanks for this info. I just want to add that ppl need to look at the simple actions of those considered better in the regime, to be able to judge them properly. For me, someone with excellent management skills or clean hands but exploited his connections to get a piece of land or property here or there, or to push his kids into a particular job here or there, is also corrupt. We need ppl who have proper principles and are living by them. Look at the naive reaction of readers at youm7 commenting on news of Alaa Mubarak's TV segment (who allowed this and why host him and his wife of all ppl) about the NGO he made named after his dead child and comments about Hisham Tallat. Some ppl think that any person doing charity work is an angel even when that same person has conspired to control businesses in the country, along with his father in law closed down entire sectors to proper competition or forced ppl to split their shares with them, or even when that person exploited his connections to get vast lands for almost nothing, depriving the ppl from more than $200 million pounds, while selling houses and apartments in the desert for so much money. I wish ppl would look closer and learn that a person who cheats in an exam, exploits his connections to unfairly get a job or acquire property, cant be clean, its the small things that count.
ReplyDeleteIt's a shame to see the fate of 80 million people decided by a handful.
ReplyDeleteWho is the real shithead, the president or the people?
at least we got a nice german airport it seems :)
ReplyDelete