Guinea's President Lansana Conte has passed after 25 years of rule leaving Guinea to unknown future.Just after hours from the announcement of his death the news came from the capital that there was a coup and a group of army officers has ruled the country with huge reception from the people.
This is well known scenario for third world dictatorship countries.
Anyhow I look to Conte and then I look to Mubarak and I see what has happened in Guinea can be repeated in Egypt if Mubarak dies. It is possible scenario that the army will move and some group of officers will lead a coup against the NDP and Gamal Mubarak.
I would predict if this happens people welcome this coup despite all what they suffered from the consequences of the military rule just because they can’t take any more from Gamal Mubarak and the NDP gang.
I do not have to bet that GM is taking in to consideration this fearful scenario especially he is not a military or even served in the army and for sure he is taking his precautions. Still if we take Guinea as an example or even if we look to our modern near history ,the free officers were not generals or commanders but rather small ranked officers , they were the one who brought the real change regardless of its consequences afterwards.
This is why GM is trying to go in in his plan in his father’s life time. Because he knew it won’t be easy if Mubarak dies and he is not the President already.
But again what makes him so sure that the people or the army will accept him as the President in his father’s life time !!
To tell you the truth I do not know what lies in the future for us the Egyptians and Egypt. I do not know if we are going to be like Syria or like Guinea.
We have many scenarios from the most optimistic to the worst pessimistic but only God knows what it will be :)
p.s as far as I read late Conte had a son who is or rather involved in Politics and strangely he was a captain in the army too !! Also late Conte planned to stay in rule till 2010 !!
You forget that Egypt is now run by the Police not the army. The army presence is barely felt there.
ReplyDeleteI could see someone try to usurp Jimmy's position if they were from the interior ministry or the Secret Service. But the army? Highly unlikely. The Egyptians are a very passive people used to being ruled by a dictator. Pharoahs were nothing more than that. I think the odds that Jimmy will rule are great, especially when the consequences of his not ruling are an alternative of the bogeyman MB.
It really all depends on what Israel wants in the end anyways. A MB government may serve their purposes more than Jimmy, the police or the secret service running the country. While Egypt has been emasculated and no longer leads the rest of the Arabs, it still is geographically important and it's population is massive and frightening to its Israeli neighbors.
The Israelis know that the general population still hates their presence despite almost 20 yrs of peace.
@anonymous, do not forget also in 1952 there was no army but rather secret service and police. The police generals do not have usually this idea of changing the regime ,even the young officers do not want to change the regime ,they are connected to the people ,do not forget they get their power from the regime.
ReplyDeleteStill the secret service represented in the Intelligence can lead the coup and Tunisia is the best example
The intelligence is related to the army and has more power.
It does not depend on what Israel wants in the end because Israel and America till now do not know exactly how things will be after Mubarak.