Wednesday, May 29, 2013

#Nile Crisis in #Cairo Thanks to Renaissance Dam

The Nile in Aswan
Whether the Muslim brotherhood likes it or not , the current Nile crisis with Ethiopia is the biggest challenge facing President Mohamed Morsi, the biggest for real. This is the Nile Challenge.
It is now his true capabilities as a President are being tested. This is not Gaza where Hamas, the MB branch in Palestine is , this is Egypt’s national security and future we are speaking about.
For those who do not know what I am speaking , today in a provoking move the Ethiopian government diverted the course of the Blue Nile preparing for a new stage in building the Grand renaissance Dam.It is provoking because the diversion of the Blue Nile was supposed to take place after the trilateral commission’s report in September 2013.
The trilateral commission is made of experts from Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia as well foreign experts who are studying the effects of the dam on the downstream countries “Egypt and Sudan. The commission’s report was already going to be issued by the end of this month. The last meeting in Cairo , this month. Update : On Wednesday the report will be issued and the Egyptian presidency will declare its position accordingly. Leaks in the report say that Ethiopia did not fully cooperate with the commission and withheld information about the dam.
According to this report we will know if the dam is truly a threat to Egypt and Sudan. If it is a threat , there will be supposedly negotiations and so. After all this is an international river.
The diversion of the Blue Nile was supposed to take place in September 2013 if the dam  gets an ok after the Nile flood.
I believe Ethiopia did this move to twist Egypt’s arm like we say in Arabic , to make us face the reality seizing the opportunity of Egypt’s internal woes and weaknesses as well. I can not blame them , I will blame the current Egyptian administration starting with the President , his aides, his advisers , the intelligence and the ministry of foreign affairs.
The high dam in Aswan
The Mubarak administration as well Omar Suleiman had gone with the wind , they are from the past now. All those months some had to pay attentions to our Upstream neighbors especially Ethiopia. Yes Morsi was the first President to visit Ethiopia but as I see that there is no big impact for his visit now.
China is sponsoring this dam and yet this was not raised in the Egyptian Chinese talks during President Morsi’s visit !! The Turks and Iranians got investments in Ethiopia , we can use them. For God sake Mubarak used the Arab Gulf relations in his fight with Ethiopia over the dams.
I do not need to tell you that many Egyptians believe that the military choice is the best one but I am afraid that the military choice is not an option whether from diplomatic view or technical view. Diplomatically you will start a war in hard times. Yes technically we can not afford air strikes to go to the heart of Ethiopia except with the help of neighbors and I do not think that neighbor countries will be welcoming to join us in war !!
I think EGYPT can pull some cards for its once sake but it seems these cards do not appear except for the Muslim brotherhood branches in other countries !! I am sorry to say that. By the way I hope the Muslim brotherhood supporters stop saying “Hey you and other speakers as well the the opposition , what will you do or what are you going to do !?”
I am sorry but I am not the President for God sake. The President and his administration are in trouble. Already the Egyptian ambassador in Ethiopia said that Morsi was informed by the decision to divert the Blue Nile course 12 hours prior his return to Egypt while the Presidency's spokesperson is denying this and belittling the whole matter.
People are praising the Sudanese official reaction from expression rejection and anger as well heading to the Arab League. Of course I wonder what the Arab League will do !!
Of course now all the night talk shows got nothing to speak about it except the Nile crisis and the Renaissance dam.
Now some will say why Egyptians are so angry and do not want this dam to exist at all. Well it has nothing to do with , well I would like to share with you this online study “unfortunately in Arabic” about the dam. This report details the pros and cons of the dam, there are 6 pros fro 9 cons.
I will focus here on the cons :
  1. Extreme high cost of building this dam
  2. Forest land and irrigated land “extreme rare in Blue Nile” will be dumped and drowned in the dam’s
    An illustration for the Renaissance dam
    lake , no other land available for irrigation in nearby area.
  3. Mining areas with minerals like Gold and iron as well quarries will be drowned.
  4. Nearly 30,000 Ethiopians will be forced to be displaced.
  5. The dam’s age is short “between 25-50 years” due to sedimentation that will affect its efficiency.
  6. There is high chance that the dam can collapse due to geological factors and the high speed of water current in the Blue Nile , if it collapses  , this may create a tsunami that can drown Sudanese villages and towns.
  7. High chances for earthquakes.
  8. Egypt and Sudan will lose lots and lots of water share starting from the first year, in fact the first year of operating this dam we will lose huge quantity of water.
  9. Political tensions with Egypt and Ethiopia.  
I was planning to write something different tonight ,but important things should not be ignored.
Ironically it comes at the same time the Muslim brotherhood is preparing huge celebration for his first anniversary as a President.


  1. "I do not need to tell you that many Egyptians believe that the military choice is the best one" Ethiopia is not Tahrir square.and it seems Egyptians must forgot history please read The Ethiopian- Egyptian War between 1874 –1876. One other thing Israel is on our side. bu bu bu

    1. I really laughed at the writer of this ' Innocent, selfish and unrealistic ideas". I think his desire is "let we only eat and others die". You should know that a veto-power or the Nile river should belong to Ethiopia since 86% of the river originates from us. You also put as pros and cons of technical issues that may arise on the dam; how do you think that Ethiopia can invest a huge money on the dam without detail feasibility studies done? Most of the things you put there is not your matter especially the capacities of Ethiopia to build the dam. Ethiopia is not denying the others country to use the water, but you and your country think of using the water without the intervention of others.

  2. The only important issue is #8, the water share of Sudan & Egypt.

    According to Wikipedia, this water loss is only temporary for 1 year due to the filling of the dam reservoir. Since the dam is used for electricity, it will not consume water from the river.

    1. The Los Angeles Times reports that Egypt is experiencing daily power outages, so perhaps Ethiopia can get a good price for electricity sold to Egypt.

  3. Ethiopia is over 60% Christian and only 30% Muslim. They should tell that troglodyte Morsi to go pound sand. Look on the bright side, Egypt will be able to buy electricity from Ethiopia in a few years, which will allow marxist Egyptian elites to run their air-conditioning more.

    1. the issue is not religion, I am sure you are not Ethiopian because we Ethiopians know how to respect each other. I think you are trying to spread hatred or division b/n Muslims and Christians. for your information even our own government tried to create conflict b/n these two community for its own political agenda but it fail. if u think u will succeed don't west your time it wont happen in Ethiopia. let me tell u again "we Ethiopian know how to respect each other"

    2. well said. and as an egyptian muslim icongratulate you on the dam. it wont solve all the problems and as an expert in this field i favour a series of small dams. but big business was never going to support that. legally upstream users do have rights. and interestingly islamic law also gives certain rights to upstream users. historical use is also pertinent but ultimately islam calls for consensus and equity as does int law. zeinoubia is wide of the mark here and her 9 cons are not all valid. again she just wants to bash the mb. the secular liberals will be happy to pull egypt apart over anything. i dont see much hope for the country sandwiched between illiberal
      sore losers and obscurantist salafis. may God forgive us

  4. I, 100% believe that Ethiopia has the right to build the dam without affecting the down stream nations! Most of the issues you raised ( no 1 to 5) do not hold water in-terms of Egypt and Sudan interest! the rest of the issues also are not based on genuine investigation of the project! You are simply opposing the construction of the dam for the sake of opposing!

  5. I'm really sorry to read such provocative and pointless Blog. You create a channel for hatreed, anger,...between Egyptian and Ethiopian people.
    The war you seek will not happen at all. Both nations understand the cost of war. So please, if you have a respect for Allah , don't write such negative things.

  6. Ethiopia is not over 60% Christian land . It is totally fabricated history told by the current regime. The current regime since it is a minority and tried to tell the wrong figure to stay in power. There is no reliable statistics that tells the right figure. What you wrote here provided to you by the Weyane regime. The number of the Muslims is more than 50%.

    1. You wrote

      >There is no reliable statistics that tells the right figure

      Wa menkum nastafeed

      Then you wrote

      >The number of the Muslims is more than 50%.

      Now you tell me why should we believe you? It is either there are no reliable figures or 50% of the population is Muslims and it cannot be both!

      You must pardon me but you should read what you write before you post it

  7. No panic man. If water scarcity happens, we will let you know to come and drink in Ethiopia.


  8. What would Egypt had done if it were to exchange its geographic location with Ethiopia? Answer: the Egyptians wouldn't have never shared the Nile Waters with Ethiopia.

  9. Zenobia,
    One more detail. If the army goes to war, Morsi will win in terms of time and other aspects because the one power that could stand up to him would be occupied fighting in Ethiopia. I doubt there will be a war. But let's hope for the best for the people of both countries

  10. Was Morsy the first Eg president to visit Ethiopia? Didn't Mubarak go and Omar Suleiman proposed the bullet-proof vehicle (checked luggage) that saved his life??

    Some different perspectives on the dam...hmmm

  11. Egypt can use the majority muslim population in Ethiopia to serve its own strategic interest. Ethiopian muslims trust more their muslim brothers in Egypt than the minority christians in their country.

    1. Did I read a sentence that says "Minority Christians",
      we all know who represents the minority plus Ethiopians will not help outside enemies, be it Muslim or christian.

  12. Morsy knows that Egypt is about to face a water crisis with and without the dam. The whole matter is just a ruse to divert the public attention from his failures at home and to build the usual "enemy from the outside"-image for the future, so that he can blame Ethiopia when the water becomes scarce.

  13. Excuse me, you said minority Christians? that is what you dream plus Ethiopians always stand together during hard times, no matter their differences in ideology and religion, Ethiopia always comes first.
    I really don't understand why Egyptians are bragging, they are saying a country who supplies more than 85% of the water shouldn't use any of her resources while the people are under poverty and shortage of electricity.
    Anyway its better if Egyptians start living in the 21 century.

  14. 1. Thank you for the concern-let us build together it is helpful for all of us
    2. Thank you for the concern too but i am happy that you made it clear that we don't use for irrigation and one of the serious problem solved
    3. For now our problem is energy and unless we have that we cannot efficiently utilize other resources
    4. It is better to move 30,000 people than always talking about a million death due to drought
    5. We will work seriously on that within 50 years a lot to do
    6 and 7 let us work together
    8.Let us not be selfish and think on mutual benefit
    9.No need for that and hope Win Win situation will ease that( at least )

  15. It is the time to negociate and dell with" the door is open"toresolve the conflict

  16. to use the nile water in its max. potential needs to think rationally as a man of the time, as leader of the time. not the greedy and arrogant worn out thoughts of the Egyptian politicians. So my friend you need to have to think out of the box, we Ethiopians could not tolerate of your stupidities. nothing can stop our renaissance to have and change our destiny, neither you Egyptians nor the Arab league. Therefore not try to fool yourself. GOD BLESS ETHIOPIA AND ITS RENAISSANCE..!!!!

  17. to use the nile water in its max. potential needs to think rationally as a man of the time, as leader of the time. not the greedy and arrogant worn out thoughts of the Egyptian politicians. So my friend you need to have to think out of the box, we Ethiopians could not tolerate of your stupidities. nothing can stop our renaissance to have and change our destiny, neither you Egyptians nor the Arab league. Therefore not try to fool yourself. GOD BLESS ETHIOPIA AND ITS RENAISSANCE..!!!!

  18. we will pay the price of this dam,by money or blood.we have no any other choice,egypt can go to hell.


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