Two weeks ago, US President Joe Biden's National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said confidently in a public think tank meeting in Washington that the Middle East is quieter today than it has been in two decades.
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| Jake Sullivan |
I do not know if he was serious, in denial, or demonstrating the US's true intent to leave the Middle East to deal with "its own shit." Whatever the case may be, I know that the Middle East is not quieter today than it has been in two decades. In fact, things are getting from bad to worse.
Let’s see the Middle East’s map and I will exclude the Palestinian territories.
We have the situation in Syria, we have the El-Assad regime backed by Iran and Russia still in power creating what is considered the second biggest and longest refugee crisis the world has seen since WWII. “The first biggest and longest refugee crisis is the Palestinian refugee crisis.”
According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), there are currently 6.8 million Syrian refugees registered with the UNHCR worldwide. This number does not include Syrian refugees who have not registered with the UNHCR or those who have been internally displaced within Syria.
El-Assad regime also created a huge drug problem in the Middle East.
We also have the North of Syria which is outside El-Assad's control and is currently under attacks from the El-Assad regime using prohibited weapons as well as Turkey which can't stomach the Kurdish forces backed by the Americans FYI.
We have the situation in Lebanon, a country that is already on the verge of bankruptcy while being ruled by the seventh richest Arab man alive according to Forbes list in 2023 aka Prime Minister Najib Mikati.
We have also corrupted Lebanese political powers and bank cartels. We got Hezbollah, the true army with experience in Lebanon realistically speaking.
Lebanon continues to be a living field of another proxy war for regional powers.
Then we have Iraq which is also under Iranian control thanks to a failed US invasion. Iraq suffers economically. The land of Tigris and Euphrates is on the verge of drought thanks to Turkey and Iran’s dams.
Then Yemen, which is also under the control of a radical religious group affiliated with Iran aka the Houthis.
According to the UNHCR, there are currently 4.3 million Yemeni refugees registered with the UNHCR worldwide because of the Saudi-led war. This number does not include Yemeni refugees who have not registered with the UNHCR or those who have been internally displaced within Yemen.
Currently, there is another quieter fight in Yemen as its United Arab Emirates aka Sparta of Arabia wants to divide Yemen once again into South Yemen and Yemen again. Yes, Saudi Arabia reached a truce agreement with Houthis as well as Iran but many fear that it is a weak truce.
To Sudan, the ongoing fight between Sudanese armed forces and Sudanese Rapid Support Forces entered its sixth month. As of September 2023, more than 1.1 million people have fled Sudan due to the conflict. Most of these civilians entered the neighbouring country of Chad, but thousands more moved to other countries.
The fight continues till this moment sending the country to the abyss for real. I won’t speak about human rights violations.
To Libya where we got a lot of oil, no unified government nor a single army. We have governments in the East and West. We also got mercenaries from Russia. Elections should be held soon but then we got a natural catastrophe that up till we do not know how big its impact.
To Egypt, my beloved country and I will quote my favourite singer of all time legendary Abdel Halim Hafez when he sang Where should I begin the story?"
Egypt, the largest recipient of US aid as well as the most populous Arab is facing its worst economic crisis in years with a breaking record inflation.
I won’t speak about the political situation in Egypt because you probably know. Now add to this the situation of Egypt’s neighbours on its borders. We got wars in Sudan and Palestine while Libya can blow up at any moment.
Shall I speak about Tunisia, or it is under French influence and the US does not care much for it!?
I mean this is the Middle East now!! I did not include Palestine as you can see because it seems that what the US administration cares for now is the naturalization of relations agreement between Saudi Arabia and Israel above all. I think the agreement will be delayed now.
Maybe I know nothing. After all, we are speaking about the National Security Advisor of the US President with access to information I will never know.
Maybe Sullivan believes it is quieter because the Americans left the Middle East and thus it feels quieter for them as there is a huge ocean between the New World and Old World!!
Either way, I think he knows he was so wrong. Those three days proved it.
Actually there is a lot of oil money quietly sloshing around Iraq. I know Sunnis who go back every so often to bring money out. Iraq was always rich except when Saddam Hussein made some ill-judged invasions (Iran,Kuwait). But yes it’s by no means a paradise. And you are correct the Middle East has rarely been such a mess. Saudi has a young psycho (no telling what he will do when he gets a brainstorm). Syria has another psycho. Libya, Tunisia, Dubai, Yemen, Lebanon all have different problems. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you don’t like them) the US wants to disengage. It is oil self-sufficient now due to fracking. Bush should never have invaded Iraq. But I don’t believe Clinton or Obama can be blamed for the Taliban in Afghanistan (that’s Pakistan) or ISIS in the Levant (Assad emptied his jails so they could attack the American occupiers in Iraq). Obama did make a speech about freedom at Cairo University (which he never should have done). Clinton did try to promote the two-state solution (which he never should have done).
ReplyDeleteJake Sullivan, like Joe Biden, is a moron.
ReplyDeleteYou won't discuss what went on in Israel because you can't possibly defend the actions of your beloved freedom fighters. Yet if I did a search on your blog I'd find hundreds of posts critical of Israel and Jews.
ReplyDeleteThanks for writing this blog post, Z. Emotions are raw right now. I expect there to be angry discussion here.
ReplyDeleteUS administrations have been trying to speak a tranquil SW Asia/N Africa into being for many years, hoping to "pivot to Asia" or some variation on that theme, without being willing to adjust policies in any way that would promote peace and stability. Yours is an excellent summary of just the main challenges in the region. If we include the Horn of Africa as well we see even more chronic instability and human suffering in the neighborhood. It is hard to remain hopeful but important not to pretend none of this is going on.
ReplyDelete