Saturday, January 25, 2025

#Jan25 : A rant about a revolution that lives on in one way or another

"Today, I Saw"
Today, I saw the picture from afar,
And I said, Hussein will die again.

Today, I saw—through a revolutionary’s eyes—
Hussein, surrounded by soldiers atop his lifeless form.
They beat him with batons…
Every time he tries to rise.

And the people just stood there,
Weeping, instead of stepping in.

The flag, a sieve,
Pierced by bayonets and bullets.

The path stretched before us,
Paved with blood to the very end.

Today, I saw blood on bread.
And I realized, Hussein is us…
No matter how many times he’s killed,
He lives on.

Mostafa Ibrahim in his book “Manifesto”

   It is the anniversary of the January 25 Revolution—our “Karbala moment.” This anniversary arrives amid yet another period of economic and political hardship.

Egypt's economic woes are no secret. The threat of instability and uprisings due to economic crises and soaring inflation is ever-present. However, 2025 is not 2011. Circumstances, both domestic and regional, are markedly different.

Egyptian girls with the Egyptian flag on their faces at Tahrir square
From the faces I saw in Tahrir square in January 2012 
when there were very high hopes 

For regional political reasons, I do not believe Egyptians will rise up now, especially with the Israeli army in Gaza or its attention fixed on Gaza. “Not to mention,” some sectors of Israeli society still cast their eyes on Sinai—whether as an alternative homeland for Palestinians or as part of a grand vision of Greater Israel.

However, the one scenario that could compel Egyptians to take to the streets is the loss of Sinai again—heavens forbid. This remains the true red line for the Egyptian president and military. It is a generational lesson and fear rooted in the memory of the devastating moment of June 5, 1967.

Another hard-learned lesson from history is: “Do not send our army to wars or conflicts beyond our borders—remember Yemen.”

Fortunately, the current Egyptian administration and American and Qatari mediation have managed to broker a ceasefire in Gaza. We pray that it holds and that Israel does not break it as it did in November 2023.

The anniversary of the January 25 Revolution comes as Syria's sudden regime change has brought memories of the Arab Spring rushing back. This has struck a chord in Egypt, evoking both hope and despair.

Regime change in Syria has created a complicated mix of optimism and disappointment. The arrest of Egyptian poet and activist Abdel Rahman Youssef in Lebanon after his visit to Syria exemplifies this. Youssef went to Damascus, delivering a video message from the Umayyad Mosque warning Syrians about the Saudi, Emirati, and Egyptian governments.

His mistake? Failing to recognize that the Umayyad Mosque is not Tahrir Square. Freedom of speech in the "new Syria" has strict limits when it involves criticism of Gulf states.

"So-called liberal Saudi Journalist Dawood Al-Shirian praises the decision of the new Syrian administration to deport Abdel Rahman Youssef al-Qaradawi and detain Ahmed al-Mansour adding that decision means that the Syrian revolution is not a gun for hire, and that the Umayyad Mosque square will not be a platform in Tahrir Square.I feel honored already that he is slamming Tahrir square and underestimating it"

Meanwhile, Saudi journalists close to Mohammed bin Salman—those who deride the Arab Spring as chaos and dismiss the events of Egypt in 2011—have begun hailing Ahmed El-Sharea as “Syria’s Bismarck.”

Youssef was arrested in Beirut and subsequently extradited from Lebanon to the UAE, with plans for further extradition to Egypt.

Personally, I am acutely aware that this is 2025, not 2011.

The Syrian Revolution Flag in Cairo's Tahrir square
The Syrian Revolution/Independence Flag moment in Tahrir square 
in the second anniversiary of #Jan25 Revolution , the famous shot but not from above

This is a post-war Syria under Golani’s leadership, not the Egypt of Tahrir Square, where freedom once welcomed all. Unfortunately, many others did not realize this harsh reality until it was too late, driven by the rekindled yet misplaced hope of another Arab Spring.

Then came the failed “25 January Revolutionaries Movement,” spearheaded by former Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) fighter Ahmed El-Mansour. His ill-fated attempt to topple the Egyptian regime from Syria was doomed from the start.

El-Mansour was arrested by the Syrian administration following videos attacking Abdel El-Fattah El-Sisi and launching what he called the “25 January Revolutionaries Movement”.

The original January 25 Revolution activists almost unanimously rejected his call, insisting that the revolution was a peaceful, non-militant movement.

The famous shot from above
Tahrir Square in January 2012

His online followers, who refer to him as “commander,” claim that he did not advocate for a militant uprising. However, in nearly all his videos following the fall of Al-Assad’s regime, he appeared wearing military camouflage—a striking contradiction.

From the outset, his movement was doomed to fail. Nevertheless, a group of Egyptian Islamists continues to live in their own bubble, refusing to confront reality. This is yet another reminder of why the Islamists failed in Egypt.

It is astonishing to see someone like Abu Mohammad al-Golani, a former Al-Qaeda/Daesh figure who never completed his university education, exhibit more political pragmatism and realism than the Islamists in Egypt.

The arrest of Ahmed El-Mansour by Golani’s forces has already sent shockwaves through certain circles of Egyptian Islamists, who cannot reconcile how Golani—himself a militant leader—would take such a step.

El-Mansour inadvertently delivered a million-dollar favour to the Egyptian administration by embodying their worst fears in the wake of Syria’s regime change. He became a living example of Cairo’s concerns about Egyptian militants in Syria and their potential plans for the Egyptian regime.

Interestingly, the fact that some still invoke the words “January 25” is a testament to the revolution’s enduring popularity, despite all claims to the contrary.

Syria’s developments have indeed awakened many thoughts and emotions. 

Yet, as history shows, military takeovers are the easiest path in the Middle East. The real challenge lies in building a democracy with a peaceful transfer of power that avoids abuse. It is the quest the Egyptians have long yearned for since 1952 

Bashar Al Assad Graffiti at Tahrir square
El-Assad Hitler Graffiti on the Walls of Tahrir Complex in September 2011 

Ironically, some Syrians have been reclaiming their Umayyad heritage in a desperate attempt to counter Iran’s Shia influence. I find this deeply unfortunate because, in many ways, the Umayyads dismantled Islam’s early democratic tradition of choosing a caliph through the Shura council in Medina, replacing it with the Byzantine-style hereditary monarchy.

Don’t get me wrong—I am glad Al-Assad is gone, and I always knew his regime would eventually fall. I am happy to see Syrians in exile returning home and detainees finally freed.

As an Egyptian, I have a soft spot for Syria. Despite Nasser’s failed political union with Syria—an adventure doomed by its own missteps—Egyptians have always held a deep connection to Syrians.

Given what happened in Egypt and the heavy price Syrians have paid, I feel concerned, though I completely understand. Syrians simply want to rid themselves of Al-Assad, reopen their country to the world, and rebuild their lives. Democracy can come later.

And I will end with what Alaa Abdel Fattah and Ahmed Douma had once written from behind bars. “One of them is free while the other one has not been released yet and his mother is on hunger strike for his release”

“Hope, like despair, is treason. But also, like despair, it’s a normal human weakness. Here in my cell I wrestle with my dreams and my nightmares, and I don’t know which hurts most. Despair and hope pull at me — but I am never a traitor.”

3 comments:

  1. Arbel Yehud.. Starved, gaunt, fearful. Traumatized. I've watched hundreds of hours of Arab TV online. The Arabs are clean, groomed, healthy and the kids are chubby cheeked and smiling and playing. You are fucking lying animals. Israel is right to bomb you and Trump will be right to expel. Fuck you.

    ReplyDelete

  2. The only revolution coming will be the one where you stop writing positively about wanting to kill all the Jews. Arabs are invaders from Arabia. Colonialist, killers, rapists, thieves and liars.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Seventy members of Hamas released from Israeli prisons as part of the hostage agreement are currently stranded in a hotel in Cairo, with the countries that had committed to hosting them not yet formally agreeing to do so.

    "To date, no Arab country has agreed to receive even a single released and expelled Palestinian prisoner," a source from the Palestinian Prisoner Authority told Ynet.

    The ex-prisoners, who are not allowed to leave their hotel, describe their situation as moving "from an Israeli prison to an Egyptian prison." The source reports that they had to stay for a long time with their prison clothes and sandals, adding that "the Egyptians do not treat them warmly."

    ReplyDelete

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