The damned dam: No, Trump Did Not Stop a War Between Egypt and Ethiopia

Egypt issued a new statement last week warning that Ethiopia’s latest unilateral and unregulated operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has caused sharp fluctuations in water flows along the Blue Nile.

This unexpected surge has forced the Egyptian government to open the Toshka spillway to safely absorb the excess water.

This is the second—or perhaps even the third—such warning Egypt has issued within a span of three months. Honestly, I’ve lost count.

Now, I am seizing this moment to clarify a recurring claim: Donald Trump did not stop a war between Egypt and Ethiopia.

There was no war between Egypt and Ethiopia to begin with.

I will acknowledge that real progress was indeed achieved during Trump’s first term. In February 2020, the parties were genuinely on the verge of signing an agreement before Ethiopia backed away at the last moment.
Still, there was no war, nor any military confrontation, for Trump to “stop” in his previous or current term.

The only time Egypt and Ethiopia were actually at war was in the 19th century, when Khedive Ismail attempted to follow in the footsteps of his grandfather, Mohamed Ali Pasha, in Sudan.

Seeking to secure the Nile’s sources and extend Egyptian influence to the Red Sea in the south, Ismail made the reckless decision to invade Ethiopia.

In 1874, he sent Egyptian forces from the Red Sea port of Massawa, successfully occupying parts of modern-day Eritrea before suffering defeats at Gundet in 1875.
Ismail later deployed a larger, better-armed modern army—complete with European officers and modern rifles—but Egypt was defeated again at the Battle of Gura in 1876, one of Ethiopia’s significant historic victories.

This was the only war between Egypt and Ethiopia in both modern and ancient times.

It is worth noting that Egypt and Ethiopia were both independent states at the time and were not under Western colonial occupation.

Between 1874 and 1876, Egypt—though formally under Ottoman suzerainty according to the 1840 Treaty—functioned as a semi-independent state with its own administration, army, and foreign policy.

The British military occupation came nearly a decade later, following yet another series of disastrous decisions under Khedive Ismail.

Fast forward to the 21st century: Egypt, for the most part, has forgotten this chapter in its history.

Most Egyptians are unaware of Ismail’s failed “Equatorial Directorate” project. Only a few recall that era—such as prominent Egyptian demarcation expert and cartophile Heidi Farouk, who once claimed she had documents and contracts showing that Ismail allegedly acquired the land on which the GERD now stands back in the 1860s in some irony.

Ethiopia, for its part, accuses Egypt of supporting Eritrea during its war of independence since the 1950s.

It is no secret that Egyptian–Ethiopian relations deteriorated sharply after the Ethiopian Revolution as the Derg Junta took control of the country, with Egypt later supporting both Eritrea and Somalia against Ethiopia. Then came the attempted assassination of Hosni Mubarak in Addis Ababa in 1995, which made relations even worse.

From a moral standpoint, I believe Egypt was—and remains—on the right side in supporting Eritrea and Somalia against Ethiopian pressures. 

Even though pragmatically it may have been in Egypt’s best interest to side with Ethiopia to secure its water share, the historical and ethical dimensions were more complex.

In the end, I do not know which “wars” Trump is being credited with stopping, but I am certain he did not stop any war between Egypt and Ethiopia—because there isn’t one.
From day one, Egypt has clearly chosen the diplomatic path, rejecting any military solution. And at this stage, any military gamble would be both impractical and too late.