Sunday, July 14, 2013

An Attempt to Explain #Egypt

 Many people are trying to understand what is happening in Egypt including Egyptians themselves.
This was Farag Foda , the late Egyptian thinker and writer believed. Foda was assassinated by radical religious groups in the 1990s by the way. He got it right.
It is an empty cycle , in the absence of the civil opposition a military rule will lead to a religious rule and the religious rule will be ousted only through a military coup then after sooner or later it will lead to another religious rule. Some times this cycle is shortened and we find a hybrid between Islamists and military like in Sudan
The late thinker got it right.
Personally I believe since Ancient Egypt had been ruled by the army's commander who would start a dynasty followed by a short rule of a priest that would take over the rule when that dynasty would go down the drain.
It is also worth to mention that the pharaoh backed up by strong army usually took over the after what was known as dark age hit the country when the centralized state collapsed.That pharaoh and his army then would restore the power of the centralized state to start a new dynasty. Jumping in to the Modern Egypt time , its founder Mohamed Ali was a military commander who founded the modern Egyptian army. His dynasty , the Ali Royal Family was then brought down by a military coup in 1952.
I believe when Farag Fouda wrote the above about Egypt , it was in 1980s when the Islamists began to rise in the Egyptian society. When the civil non Religious opposition began to lose power and start to be isolated from the public thanks to the Mubarak regime.
Now to our modern time. It seems that we are not going to have a direct military rule but rather a civilian rule backed up by the military. But the main fact we have and deal with in Egypt is that the two main forces in the country are the military and the Islamists. To break the cycle you must have a strong civilian Non Religious Non Military opposition like the one you had pre-23 July 1952.

Unfortunately you do not have despite the attempts of some in Egypt and despite the need of Egyptians as well. Egyptians are looking for the alternatives but could not find none.This is why they had no problem what so ever to remove Morsi and the Muslim brotherhood through the army.
"How can we remove Morsi and the Muslim brotherhood from rule without the army especially we do not have another alternative ??" This question was the answer I got from several Egyptians "who oppose the military rule" and yet supported the military intervention and refused to recognize it as a coup.
What worries , What alarms me that if we fail in those 6 months and if we return back to the days of 24 January 2011 with the police state and corruption  then it will be a matter of time Egyptians will return back to the religious rule willingly.
Of course what really scares me is having a Sudanese scenario , an Islamist army. Several officers told me that there is no chance that our army turns to be an Islamist. It is true that after the assassination of president Sadat where several army officers including Aboud El Zomor and Khaled El Islambouli were involved directly , the army is paying extreme attention to its officers' religious activity. Still I am concerned about the soldiers and low ranking officers because after all they are the children of their own society. The Egyptian army is not secularist as the Turkish.
Unfortunately the parties of the cycle whether the military or the Islamists do not want a strong civil opposition. A Weak civil opposition is easy to control and to defame as the same time. At the same time in time I also believe that both need each other. 
I will still have hope that Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei manages to break the cycle. I am realistic so I will not have high hopes because I know that the opposition as usual is not united behind Dr.ElBaradei as it should. Let's pray for a miracle in the holy month of Ramadan because of Egypt really needs a miracle to break that eternal cycle.

In this post I can not ignore this video.
Some American young man tried to explain Egypt for the rest of the world and some how he manages to explain some parts in 7 minutes. He got it right in some parts and got it wrong in other parts.

9 comments:

  1. This analysis doesn't hold water because their hasn't actually been a period of "islamic rule". You can hardly count Morsi's one year as islamic as, for one reason or another, nothing was achieved.

    Sadly what is more true for the recent period is secular rule backed up more or less by a monarchy of the army.

    Sadly these elements have undemocratically held back an islamic rule and are continuing to do so.

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    1. You may be right that Morsi's year can not be called an "islamic rule", but it seems that it was his goal to lead Egypt into such a period. And many people did not want that. That was not what their revolution was about. So the "military coup on popular demand" (as Z. likes to call it) prevented such an islamic period. You find that sad, and many people think like you do. But count the numbers - you are not the majority.

      Morsi and his team failed in many ways: they failed to use the big chance, which after years of suppression fate had granted them, to make the MB the most important political party in Egypt and earn the respect of everybody (not only their supporters), they failed to be a government for ALL Egyptians, they misinterpreted the support in the second ballot as support for their religious beliefs, and they failed to lead the country to a better future, to economic growth, to unity instead of separation. They even failed to give the people their basic needs, like work and food and gas.

      No, the Egyptian people had EVERY right to protest against a failing government. And since Morsi was not smart enough to read the signs and adjust his path, he had to go.
      For me the ouster of Morsi was not "undemocratic". Democracy means "rule of the people", and it was the will of the majority of the Egyptian people that he had to go.

      Democracy does not mean, you vote every 4 or 5 years and in the meantime you have to accept everything that happens.
      You choose the ship and his captain and then go on 4 year journey, but if you see, the ship is going to sink, you don't have to stay on it until you drown!

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    2. you can dress the coup up whatever way you want. It is certainly a sad fact Egypt is such a divided country. However democracy is not a coup and big as the demonstrations where they were the 49% that didnt vote for Morsi Made up of some revolutionaries, tired old liberals, old mubarak supporters etc etc. In any elections they will not support each other except to prevent islamists and in a fair vote islamists will win again So will you support another coup.

      What we need is strong egyptians like Aboul fotouh neither pro military and corrupt businessmen nor pro mb

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    3. A Camel with lipstick is still a Camel.

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  2. For the interim period it might be right to have "strong Egyptians" who are not pro military, pro revolution or pro MB, as you put it. But after the next elections you need something different: you need a coalition!

    For any democracy it is bad, when only one party has the absolute majority. In Europe we have that problem in Hungary right now. The president changes the constitution, the judicary, the media-laws, ond so on. Im am glad, that Hungary is part of something bigger, the European Union, so that other European countries can have some influence to prevent dictatorship.

    You say the opposition will not support each other in the next elections. Well they don't have to! You can have 5 or 10 different political parties in your new parliament. The only important thing is: No party must have the absolute majority!
    What Egypt needs is a coalition government, where different political parties have to sit down and talk, and argue, and find decisions that they all can support.
    You don't need politicians who are "pro-nothing" – you need politicians who respect each other and are able to make compromises!

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  3. No for me I'm optimistic that time. I don't know why. I feel something will break and move this stagnant cycle. I know that our history is not encouraging "full of dictatorships , military interventions, and religious priests controlling ppl's mind like in middle Ages". The thing is 2 forces are trying to restore its grip on power "the old regime "felool" and the Islamists represented in Ikhwan. Though this seems horrific but relieving at the same time. In my opinion that will create a balance in power , the conflicts between them will consume the power of the two parties. As for the alliance between the military and islamists, I don't see it viable. Ass you said, officers are the progeny of society and people now do despise Islamic rule -the intermingling of politics and religion- so not in million years. And even if the military allied with islamist , this will bring its doom this time ( divisions and schisms in the army will pursue). Just let's hope that things this time will turn fine.

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  4. for gods sake the mb even offered sawaris governorship of cairo. a vp post to sabbahi. they tried to be inclusive but the plan all slong was to leave them idolated while sawaris and his cabal plotted and used the ministries to stall the countries infrastructure while funding tamarod and baradei behind the scenes. them and the army never wanted the country to find a real cooperative atmosphere

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    1. Right, not to forget that they were super competent. For God's sake their capabilities and decision making and policies was at best pathetic.

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  5. Ah I forgot to add s.th. The fear now is from the military to take over power but Military rule trend is done in the newly world order so there will be pressures on the military to not even venture to intervene.

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