Monday, August 14, 2006

Why I consider Hezbollah won the battle ?

1701 came to light and yet the battle doesn't stop in fact it became more and more hotter , something expected especially if we considered that Israel did n't achieve what it wanted from this war from political or military objectives.

Some why will say no ! how come ? Israel won the battle !! Hezbollah is the loser ....see what Israel did to Lebanon ?? "Hey Tsellah :)"

I will answer in these specific points so I won't forget a thing

1. What is the first objective Israeli declared to the whole world ,and promised its own people with since the beginning of this war?

  • The freedom of its two captured soldiers

2. Did they free them from Hezbollah by war ?

  • No, they didn't , in fact only today Olmert decided to appoint someone to see if there is a peaceful way to free the two officers!!!

3.are there any other objectives ?

  • Yes , there are , Olmert promised his people to get rid from Hezbollah once and for all , whether by complete destruction to their Hezbollah infrastructure or force Hezbollah to withdraw from South of Lebanon or make Hassan Nasrallah leave Lebanon , this objective is always changing , there is also another objective to teach both Syria and Iran lesson .

4.Any other objectives?

  • Yes the Americans want a new middle East

5. did any of the other objectives happened?

  • Well let me see

    • Concerning getting rid of Hezbollah , well it didn't happen at all , in fact Hezbollah appeared it is much powerful than it was thought , the IDF can't get more deeper in the Lebanese land except by more dead and injured

    • Syria and Iran still there

    • NO middle East

OK enough to the questions it was just an introduction ,silly one I made

I can't consider the destruction of another weak country infrastructure a kind of a victory , destroying bridges and bombing civilian areas like Southern Suburb and so on is not a victory , blockading any human help , using forbidden weapons are all kinds of victory , Ladies and Gentlemen I can't consider it a victory

Some say this destruction Israel wants from it the following : The Lebanese people get angry from Hezbollah so much that they themselves destroy it , and thus the peaceful country is back again to civil war , you see the Shiites in Lebanon are following Hezbollah and Amal resistance group and they will stand with them against the other three parts of the Lebanese society : The Christians , The Muslim and the Dorooz , got the idea

Other say "mostly from experts" that this destruction is a proof on the Israeli intelligence failure. The IAF destroyed most if not all bridges in Lebanon that connect the south with North and all the roads to Syria , to make sure that there is no supply of weapons what so ever reached to Hezbollah but this didn't weaken the rocket supply for Hezbollah , the rockets before ceasing the fire on Israel reached between 150-200 rockets per day

But minority and I am with them say that this is an intelligence failure , the Mossad is losing its touch ,they don't know where the places of Hezbollah party except what is known to everyone , that Hezbollah in Beirut is centralised in the Security square in Southern Suburb , any Lebanese can know this , they hit the rest of the suburb thinking the rest of the suburb belongs on Hezbollah simply because the suburb is a Shiite area !!

For a whole month the Israeli army officials were speaking about the Rocket supply of Hezbollah that is being destroyed despite the facts that this supply didn't seem to end . Also we won't forget the failure of embarking operations of the Israeli commandos in Tyre and its glorious operation in capturing the grocer "Hassan Nasrallah" !!

The intelligence failure extended to the limits of arresting a big spy ring for Spies in Lebanon working for the Mossad for over ten years. It started with one spy arrested in the south and end to the discover of this big spy ring , which also proved to be another failure , because simply for a decade they didn't gather enough or correct information about Hezbollah.It turned out that one of the missions of those spies as I heard of some Lebanese was to mark the buildings in the southern suburb which they suspect to include Hezbollah facilities by planting some sort of electronic devices that send signals to the Air fighters"i know it sounds a bit of a sci-fi " . Most if not all the buildings were entirely civilians

This intelligence failure made the mossad and the army leaders in Israel throw charges on each. but I believe if I were Israeli I would accuse Mossad for not having accurate intelligence information , this information is the backbone of any war planing . The Israelis didn't have knowledge about the Rocket supply capacity , or their kinds , for example this didn't know Hezbollah can reach to their warships or their inner cities few kilometres away of Tel Aviv in other words ,they underestimate it

The intelligence failure of one side means an intelligence success from another side , it seems to me that the small resistance group got a great intelligence more powerful than the Lebanese intelligence itself

From the intelligence failure to the military failure, the second military failure after 1973, despite it is unfair to compare between the two wars of 1973 and 2006 ,as the first was between countries while the second is between a country and militant group . There are many factors why the Israeli army had to fail military

  1. The intelligence failure "already discussed it"

  2. Hezbollah is fighting a guerrilla war "something known as clear as sun , they don't stick by any military rule like IDF, in fact this gives them two points of strength no one can predict their moves while they can predict their enemy easily as it moves by the book famous techniques

  3. Guerrilla fighters depend upon light weaponry from rockets ,missiles and direct combat , make them light in moving from place to another and hiding especially this land , the south of Lebanon is their lands , most of the Hezbollah fighters are the southerns , so they know it very well.

  4. The nature of the are is not that easy to make a comfort invasion for the south like in 1982 especially with the existence of the Hezbollah fighters

  5. There are no allies in the south like in 1982 , only them and Hezbollah.

  6. The Israeli army didn't engage in a real combat with another force for a long time as it seems , most of the operations the IDF engaged in before the July war was with the Palestinian groups and they are so weak compared to Hezbollah and so we can say when Hezbollah is making itself ready , on the other hand the IDF was resting , this can be related to the intelligence failure and underestimating Hezbollah

  7. The fighting spirit of Hezbollah fighters is much greater than the one the IDF soldiers have , and this goes to many factors ,

    • They are defending their land

    • Their Islamic belief that dying in the battle field is a ticket to heaven " I believe in this belief and please I don't want anyone to discuss with me"

    • Their Shiite belief concerning also about war and sacrifice give them more strength , "I would like to hint to the War of Iraq and Iran , Iran considered it a holy war "

    • If we compared between the IDF and Hezbollah fighters , we will find the later are tougher , because I believe and please respect this thinking , they are southerns ,not to the children of the modern city and civilisation.

When over a month Hezbollah didn't surrender , didn't give up , didn't weaken , When over a month the IDF can advance more than 6 km in south Lebanon

When the commander of the Northern Military area is changed in time of war to another one

When Mofaz says that Israel lost this war himself

What I need more to know

then who will be the winner??

I don't need to prove that the Israelis failed this time , it is enough to know that Olmert decided to go for negotiations to free the captured soldiers in exchange with the Lebanese P.O.W , is n't this what Hezbollah wanted from the day one

Another sign of winning is the popularity of Hezbollah , I won't speak about it in this post

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