Friday, May 31, 2013

#Nile Crisis : Dear Egyptians We Are in Deep Water !!

It seems that we are in deep water when it comes to the Nile crisis , we are in this alone. We counted on Sudan but it seems that surprisingly the Islamist Pro-MB regime in Khartoum is playing for its own gains.
Together for the Nile Valley Renaissance
After officially denying that Sudan will head to the Arab league seeking help against Ethiopia , the Official Spokesperson of the Sudanese government , the minister of culture Ahmed Belal Othman stated that Sudan supported the dam. Othman also added of course the whole thing depends on coordination between the three countries.
Now I do not understand the Sudanese government position considering their so-close relations with the Muslim brotherhood after all the International organization of MB held its annual meeting in Khartoum last year.
Turkish news agency Andolu says that Sudanese experts say that the relations with Addis Abba were better than Cairo and that Khartoum may use the water card with Egypt in order to claim Hala’ib triangle. In other words the unnamed experts say that Khartoum may or is actually blackmailing Egypt.
Amazingly Sudan will be harmed from that dam badly and according to experts if this dam collapses while it is being operated in its full capacity many parts of  Sudan will be drowned.
The trilateral commission report has not been issued , it is delayed. It should have been issued  yesterday but it is delayed. According to Ahram Newspaper the report is delayed because Ethiopia is pressing to omit "any part condemning or harming the current Ethiopian policies". In other words the Ethiopian government does not want anything negative about the dam.
Already there have been leaks about the report say the Ethiopian government did not cooperate as it should hiding information about the dam.
Officially despite the military choice talk was brought up in the Egyptian mainstream and social media, the Egyptian Presidency says it clearly that the military choice is not option. I believe that it is not option but the Egyptian Presidency and government have not told us the other options available.
What I see clearly now that our southern neighbors are taking advantage of political DSC02698woes. It is not the first time this happen in our long history. Also I see clearly Morsi's administration seems to be lost , I do not know if the Muslim brotherhood believes that Ethiopia is part of their future MB caliphate like Sudan so the dam issue is not a big deal or what. 
We are paying the price of Mubarak’s bad policies in that critical file yet it seems that Morsi and his MB administration are not even willing to try to stop us from paying that price. Anyhow Morsi will pay even more as his support in the street at least in Cairo in the past 72 hours thanks to the Nile Crisis. In shops and taxis people are mad at him and how the Ethiopians are belittling him and belittling Egypt to the level of diverting the Nile course without Egypt’s approval.
I do not understand why the ministry of foreign affairs or even the Egyptian Presidency summoned the Italian and Chinese ambassadors to have talks with them and express Egypt’s official rejection. Of course I am totally against using the Suez canal against them like what Hamdeen Sabbahi suggested but I am with the idea of using our cards with them. We are not a small or weak or insignificant country.
I think we should learn from the past and God we have a very long full of lessons history. We can learn from Suez crisis on how we can have a diplomatic confrontation without losing the world’s support.
We should learn from the Pre-1967 six days war defeat lesson and start to amend our relations with other Arab countries like Gulf states in order to find a support and coordination.


  1. I read your interesting article. I find it very funny you said Ethiopia is belittling Mursi and Egypt by diverting the blue nile without seeking his approval. Why the hell do you think Ethiopia needs anyone's approval to use her own resources in her own land? Do you know that Ethiopia is the source of 85% of the nile water? Do you know that Egypt has been using direct and proxy wars against Ethiopia, so that we remain weak and poor and can't use the resource. Do you know that Egypt has unfairly monopolized the nile for over 3000 years. This era is over. Wake up and smell the roses, it is a different day today. Ethiopia is strong now and can build the dam by herself now. If you think war is the option, bring it on. We won't lift a finger to fire a gun.We will just pour radioactive substances in the river and it will be useless forever. Once you know this, it is time for all of us to sit down and talk about equitable share of the resource. After all, we are people of the same river. You drink our water.All we are saying is lets drink together or none of us will drink it...

    1. As if you have any credit in creating water. It is geography and you have nothing to do to produce it. The Nile is not your nor ours. It is a natural resource. Live with it

    2. @Anonymous 5/31/2013 08:17:00 PM "The Nile is not your nor ours. It is a natural resource."

      Saudi Arabia profits by selling the oil from her own wells despite the fact that petroleum is a natural resource needed by the whole world. Let Ethiopia do whatever the hell she wants with her own water, from her own territory. Egypt has been getting a free ride on Ethiopia's back for thousands of years. Time for that injustice to end.

  2. The dam is a fact you should learn to live with it. It is your backward policy and greed of thinking of using all alone that triggered Ethiopia to build it. I know its international water for communal share, it is the first step to build dam then next follows. Forget the colonial treaty, it doesn't work. Its like for it to work, Egypt gotta be under British...that is nonsense I suppose.

  3. ...surprisingly the Islamist Pro-MB regime in Khartoum is playing for its own gains.

    I guess being pro-MB isn't trending as much as it used to be. Have you checked twitter feeds out of Libya or Tunisia, lately?

    What I see clearly now that our southern neighbors are taking advantage of political woes.

    Does Egypt deserve better? Again, check twitter feeds out of Libya or Tunisia. Muslim Brotherhood isn't very popular these days, is it?

    We are paying the price of Mubarak’s bad policies in that critical file yet it seems that Morsi and his MB administration are not even willing to try to stop us from paying that price.

    You're paying the price of treating your superpower sponsor like a servant. Even you, Zeinobia, have believed for years that the US owed Egypt something and that Americans had no choice but to support Egypt. Guess what? You were wrong. As usual.

    (China and Italy) Of course I am totally against using the Suez canal against them like what Hamdeen Sabbahi suggested but I am with the idea of using our cards with them.

    Good luck with that.

    We are not a small or weak or insignificant country.

    Actually, by any objective measure you are all three of those things. In addition, your country is on the brink of collapsing into a failed state.

  4. Mr. First Anonymous,

    Do you know that Egypt, a nation of 90 millions, depend on the Nile as the sole source for drinking, irrigation and industrial water needs? Do you know that average precipitation in Egypt is under 20mm of rain? Do you know the the wettest place in Egypt, Alexandria, doesn't get enough rain to put it out of the aridity index? Do you know that the already existing supply of water from the Nile, 55km3, is not enough for national consumption? Do you know that any reduction below that would simple choke the country and cause death of the people? Do you understand that with the reduced river flow, the soil in the valley will deteriorate, buildings may even suffer from drier conditions? The Nile is the only reason for the rise of an Egyptian civilization!

    It is not about monopolizing the water of the Nile. Ethiopia has enough precipitation for agriculture. It has a lengthy rainy season. Your country suffers from poverty, famines and ignorance due to the first colonial powers and then incompetent dictatorships just as our country. At least 40 million Egyptians are no better than millions in Ethiopia. If you think of mentality of controlling the upstream and poisoning us downstream it just shows that you as a person in your thinking is no better than the likes of tyrants in history as in Adolf Hitler. It will only backfire at you. You never know what is the future hiding with all these global climate change.

    Just remember, 6000 years ago, the Sahara desert was a vast wet savannah and pasture field. Vengeance against ill acts can come from Nature, not Egypt. Instead of Ethiopia killing Egypt, both nations can die together of thirst because of all climate change. Also if you think that you can control the river and that we would bring war, not only Egypt will suffer, but also Ethiopia would greatly do as well.

    1. May be Egypt will suffer, or may be not. we should be honest to ourselves, that we know about the water crisis since a long time already. However, we did not change our irrigation methods. We do not save water. We do not modernize our agriculture. We are offering water at ridiculous low prices and we are wasting it to a large extent by growing rice, bananas and many other highly water-dependent fruits and crops.

      We do not invest in desalination, but we are happily threatening our neighbors, who have any right to develop, too.

    2. Desalination is out of question as it is very energy intensive. We already suffer from major fuel shortages in transportation and electricity production. Before that we should be aware of the government visions and outlook for national energy demands that will match provisioned economic growths!!!!

      I totally agree with the need to improve irrigation and farming methods, which are deteriorating thanks to Abdel Nasser's Land reform policy. I think the high dam itself was short-sighted project, more a political propaganda than developmental need.

      Aside from Ethiopia's threats, I personally see a major problem with the current population growth rates. This is another critical issue. We even need more water resources, not only conserve existing amounts. I can't imagine how much life will collapse in Egypt after 15-20 years when we reach 120 million, just by maintaining status quo!!

  5. well i would like to hear more from our angry anonymous , its seems like more than just ignored policy from previous decades as we have thought

    1. That, plus loss of your patron who would have in the past provided your douchebag leadership with diplomatic cover. Now Zeinobia wants to get the mighty Italians to step up on behalf of Egypt, instead :D

  6. Uh oh. Off-topic in this post, but important.

    U.S. Warns Against Pyramids Tourism

    Memorable quotes:

    "...the Pyramids, that repository for all of Egypt’s most villainous swindlers..."

    "Most of the attacks, according to human rights advocates, are being conducted by supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood."

  7. "...sexually harassing female foreigners quite openly, even those who are obviously accompanied by their husbands."

    "...don’t even think of going to the Pyramids unless you’re on a large organized bus tour."

    1. Hardly seems like Egyptian police sexually abusing female tourists in front of their husbands and kids should be used as an excuse to discourage tourists from visiting Egypt. You some kind of Islamophobe or something?

  8. Zeinobia: Morsi is a poor leader and a very poor politician. His local Egyptian as well world view are very flawed. Even his followers tell us that: Toz masr! How despicable and they even have this bizarre idea that their goal is to see that the whole world Egypt and Sudan and Ethiopia included should be under the control of a new caliphate and when this happens then things will fall in place! Just amazing poor thinking

    There is no doubt that Herodotus was correct that Egypt is the gift of the Nile but the problem is the Nile is water that comes down stream from Ethiopia via Sudan.

    Now I hope that Morsi gets it that we all live in the short term which means that he needs to negotiate, and learn to give and take, with both Ethiopia and Sudan a share of the Nile waters now and not wait until the world has this caliphate thing!

    So what can Morsi do? he should learn how to negotiate on behalf of Egypt and he should try to get international support from the UN members for the rights of Egypt in regard to the Nile water and he should also use the likes of the offices of the Coptic Pope (many Ethiopian Christians follow the Coptic Church and do what Mobarak did and that was to get the late Pope Shenouda) to talk to the Ethiopians. He also should use the offices of Sheikh al-Azhar to talk to the Muslims in Ethiopia and both the Coptic Pope and Sheikh al-Azhar can advance the case for Egypt

    Can Morsi do this? I doubt it very much because he is a poor leader

  9. I wonder when will Egyptians realize that the world doesn't revolve around them!!

    The bottom line is: Egypt's current share of Nile's water is neither fair nor reasonable. Ethiopia has EVERY right to develop and prosper. They don't owe us, Egyptians, anything!

    Try to think objectively for once. As far as the Ethiopians are concerned, we are just a racist country that's denying them the chance to use THEIR OWN resources to develop and prosper. We've been taking advantage of an unfair treaty that belongs to the colonization era.

    Here's a thought that might help you open your mind a bit: Ethiopia today is trying to do what we did in 1956, i.e; using our resources despite of an unreasonable and unfair treaty. We are to Ethiopia today what the UK has been to us in 1956.

    1. Nicely said, We use selective logic as we wish. Does any nation have the right to tell us to build, or not build a dam ? We are telling the Ethiopians to use a dam only to generate electricity but don't you dare use it for agriculture. To start with, if Ethiopia has enough fertile land from the rain they will never use that water for agriculture because it is more complicated and expensive. But if they need it, do we have the right to tell them no?

  10. If Saudi Arabia can claim the oil in its country as its own resource and sell it for billions then Egypt needs to pay for the water it receives from the Nile to Ethiopia. Egypt has had a free ride so far while the people of Ethiopia has been starving. Should Egypt choose the military option to deal with he Nile issue, I'm afraid it would be a very big and costly mistake as the Ethiopian army is one of the best trained and disciplined military in Africa. Besides, don't forget their is a big US military base in southern Ethiopia.....and US would be more than happy to teach the Muslim brotherhood a lesson or two. Egypt has no other choice than to negotiate with the Ethiopians, any other talk is simply for domestic consumption. There is a saying " don't throw a stone when you live in a glass house" is perfect fit for the MB leadership.


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