Cablegate And Egypt : Mubarak’s Profile

Update : For some reason this post does not look right in Firefox
According to Wikileaks  there are 4000 cables originating from the U.S embassy in Cairo , only 9 of them have been released so far. The latest cable released was a media sensational worldwide “Mubarak , president for life”. Some of you have read about it or have read it fully still it is never too late to discuss here.
This cable is a profile for Mubarak through the eyes of the American diplomats in the U.S embassy in Cairo. All embassies are required to do so in the world , to gather information and make these profiles about politicians in the host country so the decision makers back home can understand how to deal with that country. There is no doubt that we will find a twin cable with Sadat profile in mid 1970s
The secret cable was sent on May 19th , 2009 to the staff of the state secretary as Mubarak had requested to meet with President Obama. Mubarak had not visited Washington as he used annually since 2004. Scobey was presenting the old man of the Mideast to the New president and his staff. Mubarak and his staff were encouraged with the new administration reaction and thought it was the time to return the annual tradition which Scobey highly encouraged as :

The Egyptians want the visit to demonstrate that Egypt remains America’s “indispensible Arab ally,” and that bilateral tensions have abated.

Obama should understand that fact unlike Bush where new powers in the region began to rise in his time like Qatar.

President Mubarak is the proud leader of a proud nation.

It is good to know that we are still regarded as a proud nation.

He draws heavily from his own long experience in regional politics and governance as he assesses new proposals and recommendations for change.

Well for sure it is a long experience , after all he has been ruling for 29 years now since President Reagan !!

Mubarak is 81 years old and in reasonably good health; his most notable problem is a hearing deficit in his left ear.

That was sent before his big surgery. We know about his left ear from a long time , it was noticeable.

He responds well to respect for Egypt and for his position, but is not swayed by personal flattery.

Is not swayed by personal flattery !!?? So what is that we see in our mainstream media day and night !!??

Mubarak peppers his observations with anecdotes that demonstrate both his long experience and his sense of humor.

We know that too.

During his 28 year tenure, he survived at least three assassination attempts, maintained peace with Israel, weathered two wars in Iraq and post-2003 regional instability, intermittent economic downturns, and a manageable but chronic internal terrorist threat.

Of course as he has been ruling for nearly 3 decades !! Some people are surprised that Scobey was speaking about at least three assassination attempts Mubarak survived, well do not be surprised but I knew that Mubarak has survived no fewer than 6 assassination attempts according to the BBC country profile !! Officially Mubarak survived two assassination attempts : Sadat assassination and that attempt in Ethiopia “real attempts , that incident in Port Said does not count as it was not real”

He is a tried and true realist, innately cautious and conservative, and has little time for idealistic goals.

After 29 years of his rule I can say that he is conservative in keeping the chair and money , he is more of reactive than a true realist. True leaders who want to be remembered in the history must have idealistic and visionary goals for their nation while being realistic seizing opportunities … original realists do not wait for 29 years and then promise the people with new leap in the coming 5 years when they are over 82 years old !!

Mubarak viewed President Bush (43) as naive

Even Mubarak considered Bush JR as naïve !!

On several occasions Mubarak has lamented the U.S. invasion of Iraq and the downfall of Saddam. He routinely notes that Egypt did not like Saddam and does not mourn him, but at least he held the country together and countered Iran.

I think this part proves the innocence of Mubarak from what Bush claimed in his autobiography.

Mubarak continues to state that in his view Iraq needs a “tough, strong military officer who is fair” as leader. This telling observation, we believe, describes Mubarak’s own view of himself as someone who is tough but fair, who ensures the basic needs of his people.

The just dictator theory again , I find the Scobey and her diplomats’ explanation to his view interesting because accordingly Mubarak knows that he is a dictator who just ensures the basic needs of his people even if he is speaking subconsciously. The coming paragraph is interesting because it speaks how Mubarak reacts when the Americans speak about democratic reforms in Egypt.

He can harken back to the Shah of Iran: the U.S. encouraged him to accept reforms, only to watch the country fall into the hands of revolutionary religious extremists. Wherever he has seen these U.S. efforts, he can point to the chaos and loss of stability that ensued. In addition to Iraq, he also reminds us that he warned against Palestinian elections in 2006 that brought Hamas (Iran) to his doorstep. Now, we understand he fears that Pakistan is on the brink of falling into the hands of the Taliban, and he puts some of the blame on U.S. insistence on steps that ultimately weakened Musharraf.

Democracy in the Islamic World means chaos for Mubarak , well Scobey should have summarized paragraph in few words “ Mubarak is using the Muslim extremists bogyman  to scare us from what the democracy can bring to the chair”. Does he know about the Turks and AKP !!?
The next line is about Sudan and I wonder if our Sudanese friends can help us in explaining this !!?

While he knows that Bashir in Sudan has made multiple major mistakes, he cannot work to support his removal from power

So the Americans want to remove Bashir but Mubarak is standing against this !!?? It is very interesting because I have always thought that Bashir was doing a big favor for the Americans and all those who want to harm Sudan and Egypt with his crimes. Now Sudan is on the verge of splitting in to several countries not only two thanks to his policies. Also I have not understood yet why Mubarak supports Bashir that much to the level of lobbying against the ICC in Africa despite that that is the same man who gave refugee to those allegedly tried to assassinate him in Ethiopia !!?? Does Mubarak know that any other man will much worse than Bashir !!?

Mubarak has no single confidante or advisor who can truly speak for him,and he has prevented any of his main advisors from operating outside their strictly circumscribed spheres of power.

What about Zakaria Azmi !!? Ok Azmi is not his advisor , sorry for that mistake. What about Omar Soliman !!?? Anyhow that paragraph also confirms something I heard and read about Mubarak that he does not listen to one person only or speak through one person only. The alleged fight over the throne between Soliman and Gamal is a sign , his alleged refusal to the succession plan ..etc. It is a bless and curse at the same time for any president actually , it is a curse more in Mubarak’s case because there is no direct reason why he got rid from an advisor called Osama El-Baz.
And what is really insulting to Mubarak in the cable , up till  now nothing is considered insulting but that will change :

Defense Minister Tantawi keeps the Armed Forces appearing reasonably sharp and the officers satisfied with their perks and privileges, and Mubarak does not appear concerned that these forces are not well prepared to face 21st century external threats.

Ok there is nothing about the first part , Mubarak is keeping the army satisfied with couple of privileges “clubs, resorts and discounts” for fear some crazy officer leads a Coup d'état but the new is that “our Egyptian forces are not well prepared to face 21st century external threats !!” Well may be it is not new because many people expected this but again if we are not prepared to face 21st why we spend that big amount on money on weapons. According to that cable our army is not ready for 21st war !!
Next you will find a small but summarized description for Mubarak regime and the role of his men in controlling the country.

EGIS Chief Omar Soliman and Interior Minister al Adly keep the domestic beasts at bay, and Mubarak is not one to lose sleep over their tactics. Gamal Mubarak and a handful of economic ministers have input on economic and trade matters, but Mubarak will likely resist further economic reform if he views it as potentially harmful to public order and stability. Dr. Zakaria Azmi and a few other senior NDP leaders manage the parliament and public politics.

Should not Omar Soliman be busy keeping the external beats at sea !!?? This is another blow to Omar Soliman whose supporters portrayed him as an angel who does not interfere in local politics unlike the bad Habib Al-Adly. This claim from the American embassy makes you wonder on the role of the EGIS in the last 13 years of Omar Soliman’s leadership. “Again Soliman has served as the head of the EGIS more than any other Spy chief in the history of Egypt since the founding the apparatus in early 1950s”

Mubarak is a classic Egyptian secularist who hates religious extremism and interference in politics.

Mubarak is not a classic Secularist !! He is a classic regime man who was raised upon the hate of anyone with popularity in the street.

Mubarak, seeks to avoid conflict and spare his people from the violence he predicts would emerge from unleashed personal and civil liberties. In Mubarak,s mind, it is far better to let a few individuals suffer than risk chaos for society as a whole.

Well guess what the majority of the country is currently suffering !!

Mrs. Mubarak has been given a great deal of room to maneuver to advance women’s and children’s rights and to confront some traditional practices that have been championed by the Islamists, such as FGM, child labor, and restrictive personal status laws.

This was the first mention for Susan Mubarak in the cables. The conservatives in Egypt will use this paragraph to attack the laws against FGM , child labor and personal status laws thanks to the “maneuver” !! Anyhow we are back to the first lady’s husband and son again.

The next presidential elections are scheduled for 2011, and if Mubarak is still alive it is likely he will run again, and, inevitably, win.

I did not stop at the part that he will run again or win but I stopped at “If Mubarak is still alive” , the Americans are also aware that he can die at any moment leaving Egypt to the unknown and that he meant when he said that he would rule till the last breathe.

no one in Egypt has any certainty about who will eventually succeed Mubarak nor under what circumstances.

Mubarak’s ideal of a strong but fair leader would seem to discount GamalMubarak to some degree, given Gamal’s lack of military experience, and may explain Mubarak’s hands off approach to the succession question.

And this is why the father does not welcome the succession.
The following part in description to Egypt under the Mubarak rule from 1982 to 2009 :

However, economic problems have frustrated many Egyptians. Egypt’s per capita GDP was on par with South Korea’s 30 years ago; today it is comparable to Indonesia’s. There were bread riots in 2008 for the first time since 1977.

We know that bitter sad fact.

Economic reform momentum has slowed and high GDP growth rates of recent years have failed to lift Egypt’s lower classes out of poverty. High inflation, coupled with the impact of the global recession, has resulted in an increase in extreme poverty, job losses, a growing budget deficit and projected 2009 GDP growth of 3.5% - half last year’s rate.

I want to see Ahmed Ezz standing against Scobey and telling her that she is a liar !!The following paragraph deals with the US aid to Egypt , Scobey believes it should be directed to the education. The following section deals with Mubarak’s regional policies.
It was great to see that the Americans admit that we paid from our position as leading force in the Pan Arabism force due because of the peace with Israel and following the American directives.

For example, during the 2006 Lebanon war, the Bush Administration asked Egypt to side against Hizballah; at the same time Egyptian protestors demanded the peace treaty with Israel be vacated. The Egyptians were frozen, and relegated to waiting for the situation to stabilize.

Interestingly enough Mubarak seemed to be harmed from the direct talks between the Palestinians and Israelis as he was no longer the mediator.

At the outset of the Abbas era, Egypt,s role was unclear as the Israelisand Palestinians communicated directly, and Mubarak for a time was left with no deliverable either to the West or his public.

Coming next the intr-Arab conflicts , team “Egypt&KSA” Vs. team “Syria&Qatar”. Mubarak blamed the invasion of Iraq for the increasing Iranian influence and he believes a confrontation through isolation will be the perfect to weaken Tahran. The Sudanese issue comes next.

Egypt views the stability and unity of Sudan as essential to its national security because of concern over its access to Nile waters and the potential for increased Sudanese refugee flows. The GOE is using development assistance in South Sudan to encourage unity.

Yet we are back to Qatar again :

Here too, the Egyptians are jealous and sensitive to the Qatari foray into resolving Darfur, a crisis squarely in Egypt’s backyard.

and final what Mubarak would talk about with President Obama :

• Israeli Arab peace :

He will press for concrete action on settlements and resist Arab gestures to Israel until the Arabs can see whether or not Netanyahu is credible.

• Sudan

He will highlight Egypt’s role as provider of humanitarian and military assistance, and stress the need to maintain stability.

• Intra-Arab strife “Our dirty laundry”

He may criticize Qatar, and perhaps Syria, as Iranian surrogates.

• Iraq

He may be circumspect, but harbors continuing doubts about Maliki and his Iranian ties.

I do not think that that cable was too explosive , on the contrary if you read it twice you will find it portrays Mubarak in a positive way despite being a third world president who has been in rule for 30 years.
You can check the previous cables related to Egypt :

• Part 1
• Part 2
• Part 3
• Part 4
• Part 5

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