Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Ethiopia gives us time

The Egyptian public diplomatic delegation made a fantastic achievement Yesterday in Ethiopia as the Nile upstream leading country has decided to halt the construction of renaissance dam and the Nile river treaty till our parliamentary and presidential elections. This is a huge achievement considering the damage made by the Mubarak regime all those years and the the short time given to the public diplomatic delegation.
The Ethiopians also agreed that we form a delegation of experts from Egypt , Ethiopia , Sudan , Africa and also other countries to check the renaissance dam in order to make sure that it will not affect Egypt and Sudan.
The delegation visit the Ethiopian church 
The public diplomatic delegation made from public Egyptian personalities like included :
  • Presidential candidates like Bouthina Kamel , Hamdeen Sabhi and Hisham El Bastawisis
  • Public personalities like Abdel Hakim Abdel Nasser.
  • Partisan personalities like Siyad Badawy , Mustafa El-Gundy of El Wafd , Osama Ghazli Harb of democratic front and Hussein Ibrahim of Muslim brotherhood
  • Political activists like Karima Hifny and Dr. Mohamed Abu El- Gar
  • Representatives from the January 25th revolutionary youth.
How can a delegation like that succeed in what the Mubarak regime failed to do ? Well may be the Mubarak regime did not want to solve the conflict over the Nile river !!  That regime needed to create some sort of an enemy to justify its policies and why we are in need for Mubarak.
The Ethiopians told the delegation that the former regime was overshadowing the the Egyptian Ethiopian relations creating these tensions .
PM Sharaf is going to visit Ethiopia next May 13th insh Allah.
This is a fantastic start despite all the fears and speculations on what will happen after the presidential and parliamentary elections. It is great start and seriously thank all the members of the delegation and also the Egyptian ministry of foreign affairs and SCAF for thinking out side the box.


  1. Ethiopia would have stopped working on the dam over the summer anyway as it is the rainy season there.

    But I do sense the Ethiopians are genuinely seeking a constructive relationship with the new Egyptian government, which they expect will approve the project. While the dam gives Ethiopia the potential to temporarily block Nile water, it has a lower evaporation rate than Lake Nasser. If water storage can be coordinated, it will be beneficial for everyone.

  2. Sudanese Observer5/04/2011 03:07:00 AM

    Well done.

    This type of constructive engagement will lead everyone forward.

    Ethiopia has agreed to pause the ratification process of the Entebbe Agreement but not to halt construction of the Millennium Dam...

    It is interesting to note that this delegation 'has not' visited Sudan and when PM Sharaf visited Khartoum he very notably did not meet with Sudan's opposition ~ whereas President Bashir met with Ghazali Harb and the Muslim Brotherhood and Wafd leadership.

    A delegation of the Egyptian revolution youth visited but they were very lacklustre.

    So...we are awaiting this type of constructive engagement in Khartoum.

  3. Best make it Juba or the lake Victoria countries .Khartoum wont be running anything shortly mr observer S asian construction have brochures guarantee staggered 5 year turn-key dam complexes on cheque signing. If the Egyptians fumble the yanks might even fund it

  4. Sudanese Observer5/04/2011 04:34:00 PM

    have brochures guarantee staggered 5 year turn-key dam complexes on cheque signing


    Khartoum is building two dams on the Blue Nile Basin - the Upper Atbara and the Siteit...

    And it turns out the delegation is visiting Khartoum - minus Al-Gindy - no one will miss him - but most significantly Ayman Nour is visiting - for the first time ever I think...

    I hope they meet civil society and the opposition and not just the ruling party.

  5. God damn it!! your blog ate my long comment.
    Okay short version Sudan obs egypt + n. sudan should be charged a small amount( a couple billion) for the goodwill, nothing personal

  6. Sudanese Observer5/05/2011 02:09:00 AM

    I still don't follow...

  7. Tell me why do not you write about the fact that the city turns into a big dump or is it the conquest of the revolution? "Strange how something like that would all like to live well, and it turns the other hand, transform Egypt into a big trash! On long enough excitement Revolutionary cleaning? Lawns trees wither as they are not watered, garbage dumped along the roads! "People come to your senses this is your country!" You, the representatives of the revolutionary youth, how are you proudly call look around! or live in the mud is something that you like??
    ListenRead phonetically

  8. Such problems can be solved by politicians, environmentalists, hydrologists but not a bunch of people unknown education do not understand anything in this matter, but considered the people's representatives Egipta.It is senility? Revolutionaries trying to participate in all areas of life, without knowing what they want, not with representation in many areas of ecology, economy, politic.Egypt goes to the abyss ..... Egypt ruled by a crowd ....

  9. Sudanese Observer5/05/2011 04:38:00 PM

    You're right, the specialists are the ones who need to ultimately make the decisions but this action is still significant.

    You cannot imagine the level of antagonism that Ethiopians from all walks of life had due to the arrogant attitudes of Egyptians (both specialists and politicians) towards legitimate Ethiopian rights.

    Obviously AbdelHakim knows nothing about Hydro-Engineering or International Water Law, nor does Buthaina, but I still see their visit as an important ice-breaker.

    Let's see how the next visit on Friday to Sudan goes...

  10. Hydrologist and specialists from Egypt and n.Sudan will say one thing and those from the nile basin will say another they have differing interests. For instance why tighten pollution controls for the sake of downstream countries while costing in-house industry, why not build a hydraulic lever that can be sold to the west, Asians when they want to apply pressure, why not charge the downstream guys for the water they have no other alternative, why not diver water for large scale irrigation....
    There is rightly little sympathy in the south and their politicians realize this ergo the current treaty

  11. you got it wrong.

    ethiopia postponed the "ratification" of the document, not the construction of the dam.

    the dam was started before the ratification of the document.

    the dam is UNDER CONSTRUCTION as of i am typing.

    the only promise given by the Ethiopian government was, just give time to the delegations, so that they will win their election and come back and sign what Mubarak regime refused to do so.

    so if you interpret it wrongly, that's ok because you can correct your self, but if you just want to hear news like that, it's unfair and it wont happen.

  12. It would look weird if the other signatories ratify and Ethiopia which is a prime mover does not. They might loath Mubarak but over the years through his connections with the west they dissuade the WB/IMF/IBRD and western eng. firms not to fund hydraulic projects they did not like. IF the MB win or are strong which is inevitable we shall see reduced westerns support and major rivine projects down the road. N. Sudan will also be losing basically all its entire arable land and oil come June and gaining a strongly Islamic anti-west government. This is my understanding of current dynamics.

  13. Sudanese Observer5/08/2011 01:04:00 PM

    North Sudan will lose 75% of upstream oil production but 100% of the downstream industry is in the North.

    What you said about North Sudan losing its arable land is wrong, the vast majority of current and planned production is in the North - do some reseach...

    Western donors don't matter as much as they did - China's Exim Bank funds Sudan's and Ethiopia's dams.

    It's not about 'who' governs Egypt it's about 'how' they govern and what their vision and attitude is.

    Nasser constructed the Dam that benefited Egypt and harmed Sudan.

    Sadat threatened to attack Ethiopia.

    Mubarak was a master of delay tactics.

    The whole basin has changed and is moving on, it's time for Egypt to join the others.

    Yesterday in Sudan the leader of the opposition Umma Party Imam Sadiq Al-Mahdi stated during a speech to the visiting Egyptian delegation (including Wafd, Nasserist, Ghad, Copts and Academics) that Egypt...should sign up to the Entebbe Agreement...

  14. This project could benefit Sudan and Egypt more than Ethiopia in the long run.
    1. The Sam is to be built at narrow deep gorge and cold climate to be the ideal place to conserve water from evaporation compared to Aswan Dam.

    2. The dam hat to produce about 6000 MW power. That means the water has to be realised 24 hrs a day, 7 days a week to make use of this investment. That means high rate of flow of water to the down stream country 12 month a year than now 3 months of flood and trickle down in non the dry seasons.

    3. The place the dam is built is a deep gorge to be suitable for irrigation use. So no reasonable fear that the water would be reduced.

    4. Egypt and Sudan could benefit from cheap and surainable electric supply. In fact if Egypt and Sudan buy the electricity and make the turbine run at the full capacity the water would be released at full capacity.

    4. High silt and mud being deposited in Sudanies and Egyptian dams would be retained in Erhiopia, passing the problem to Ethiopia. Which in effect would reduce water retaintion of the dam in the long run.

    5. What most Egyptian do not know is there is no 1929 and 1959 treaty with Ethippia. Ethiopia is not signatory of the treaty and yet 85% of the Nile water come from Ethiopia. So there is no binding international low or moral right that could stop Ethiopia from using the water. So it is a good opportunity to engage with Ethiopia to reach on win win situation rather than what Mubarke had been doing, which is sponsoring and financing Eritrean independence for 30 years to wage a civil war and recently backing al-shebab (al-Qaeda) in Somalia to destabilise Erhiopia.

    So Egypt has to response to Ethiopia's desire to engage to resolve this unnecessary paranoia. It is technically impossible to reduce or stop the flow of Abay. If one tries it has to flood a province for no apparent Economic benefit. So it is also in the best interest for Ethiopia to use the energy and release the water.


  15. Cart before the horse, without d. strm u. strm is dead-weight, apparently new u. strm will be thru an enthusiastic kenya and not Sudapet and it revenue will surely decline + from what Ive read undiscovered reserves will probably be in the south rather than n. Sudan selling at 150+ pbl
    Srsly S. obs casual inspection show most agric potential is in the south especially toward the Congo border its a thick green jungle carpet very rainy if you have flown over it . Makes Konyi had to find. n Sudan is basically a narrow strip following the Nile
    very illustrative: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-12115013
    Now allowing for climate change, desertification, up Nile diversions and usual mismanagement n. Sudan will probably be a net food importer and border conflict increase if s. Sudan denies access to grazing lands, probably will.
    Egypt and n. sudan will probably remain deeply ebmroiled in the mid east by the time they look back the ill will and damage will be irreparable. the old boys in the Umma party will probably trigger conflict within n. Sudan to begin with unless they have srsly changed their ways.
    Hope for a secular n. Sudan gvt with heavy pull in the west and sophistication to break or negotiate with a tentative alliance of black Christians with alot of anti-Arab western and Asian friends framing this as an Arab vs Black cold war

  16. YHM please separate comments on Sudan from those on Egypt.

    Sudan has always stated that it would benefit from the Millennium Dam - it's Egypt that has a problem with it.

    Both sides need to cooperate for the foreseeable future for the oil to continue pumping...

    North Sudan's economy is far more diversified than the south's.

    Analysis isn't made my casual observation or the naked eye...

    Do some research on the irrigated projects in North Sudan and the expansion that has taken place these past couple of years...

    North Sudan is not Egypt, it is actively 'engaged' in East Africa, nor 'embroiled' in the Middle East.
    North Sudan is part and parcel of both East Africa and the Sahel - whilst Egypt isn't - different realities...

    Heavy pull in the West?
    Which African country has a heavy pull in the West?
    And that's not about to change and Asians do not frame Sudan's conflicts as Arab vs. Black - if you hadn't noticed 99.999999999999999999% of Sudanese people 'are' black - Egyptian portrayals of Sudanese people in Egyptian media will affirm that.

  17. "99.999999999999999999% of Sudanese people 'are' black " -This is an odd statement. Most blacks don't consider n. Sudanese anymore black than Egyptians or Lebanese Zol, based on their physical appearance + culture and lingua Egyptian(who wish they were white) discrimination aside n. Sudanese have more in common with them. on the other handd s. Sudanese are the blackest of the black
    Now if you look carefully most of the capital that funded econ diversification, dams, irrigation pjts' military plus 90%+ of FDI accrued from all time high price of oil sourced from the south soon to be lost add sanctions and you see investment will drop in n.s. and rise in s.s.
    The fact that irrigation is needed is bad, massive tracts of s. Sudan do not even need that to begin with, I've seen massive virgin forest deep south, your in the plane and it stretches into the horizon window to window, floods is a problem. There is no competition in potential,maybe Congo itself
    Pull in the west is relative, i generally consider E.A a branch of the Anglo-west(pro-west xtians),commonwealth,GWOT western armed and trained isn't Obama accused of being Kenyan.In contrast n.Sudan is accused of genocide+terror true or not, sanctioned + bombed from time to time and the president has a warrant. Who would have more pull ?
    When i say alliance am srs, EA arms, trains an supplies.s. Sudan with heavy weapons by the shipload(Faina +others) + diplomatic cover. There are EA bases and forces within s. Sudan supported by the west targeted at n. Sudan supporting LRA, OLF, Shababa... the active"engagement" srsly antagonized them.
    Unless stopped they will integrate s. Sudan into EA roads, cement, cellphones, oil, agriculture, security their firms are already in Juba n. Sudanese are being ejected. I still believe only a secular n gvt. can stop the slide and negotiate, but the guys in khtm still sing the same song. Without s Sudan n. will retain only its Arab xter the Africa part will be gone for good.

  18. j
    Being one, I think I'm more informed as to what Northern Sudanese people are.

    People in the Gulf and Egypt consider us to be blacks - not as black as the Southern Sudanese - but still black.

    And people in the West smartly consider us to be both Arab and black.

    Are Ethiopians, Eritreans, Djiboutians and Somalis black?
    We are just as black as them.
    In fact, we look more like them than we look like Egyptians or other Arabic speakers.

    And North Sudanese have more in common with the Lebanese than with who..?!

    And which blacks don't consider the Northern Sudanese to be black?

    Do any blacks consider the Tutsis to not be blacks?

    Or is the conflict in Darfur not black on black?

    So - visit North Sudan and then make a judgement.

    Investment will rise in s.s.?

    Are you aware of the private equity from the Gulf that's going into North Sudan in non-oil sectors?

    Are you aware of the insecurity and lack of capacity in the South that impedes investment..? Not to mention the corruption..?
    South Sudan's biggest non-oil investment has been a a SAB Miller beer factory and British American tobacco is thinking of making forays into it...

    South Sudan might become a geo-stragetic pawn, but it will remain...just a pawn.

    As for the EAC guess what...?

    Khartoum is joining - and Khartoum has organic, strategic relations with neighbouring Eritrea and Ethiopia whereby stability and prosperity in North Sudan is theirs and vice-versa.
    I'm sorry but you seem to know nothing about the history of Sudan, the history of the peoples of Sudan or respective viewpoints.

    Was religion an issue between the Eritreans and the Ethiopians who chose to spilt?


    The Southern Sudanese have a historical promise to rule themselves for themselves by themselves and they have achieved it.
    We Northern Sudanese have accepted this at too high a price - human lives.

    Don't pontificate about something that remains hypothetical to you and that has not impacted you directly in any way.

  19. Only Juba has applied to EAC and has observer status n.Sudan will not make it.Their next target is eastern Congo i believe +Although they deny it they are quite racist and If you observe media in EA n.Sudanese are called Arabs it is subjective.n.s generally speak Arabic Arab culture, dress customs ie part of pan Arab MENA originally from ME .Yes Tutsi are considered black ditto Ethiopians, Somalis and Eritreans n. Sudanese are not, like it or not the core question is who is indigenous or not ? Europeans originated in europe, Asians in Asia Blacks in Africa, Arabs the ME. The narrative on Dafur is Arab janjaweed liquidating indigenous balck on racial grounds true or not. Most global media CNN, BBC Alj,RT ,political leaders, Academia, blacks, Arabs, Asians understand it as such it as such
    Srsly Zol Khtm is at loggerhead with addis and its Yankee ally thnks to financing ORL Shabab et al Nile treaty and ant-eritrianism . Eritrea has warmer rltn but is a brutal police state(forced conscription, killing opponents censured by AU, US,UN,EU,alleged terror links)add famine and a collapsing economy might cause more problems for Khartoum
    SAB couldn't sell in EA competition is cut-throat and well connected, if done well 90% of beer market s. Sudan in the next decade is theirs ditto BAT in cigarettes, Bamburi in cement,MTN in mobile add elec grids, power stations,dams, gvt buildings and you see money will be made none by n. Sudan firms. corruption serves to strengthen monopolies ditto n.s. Where else is local competition so weak
    Basically s.s is now their pawn going forward benefiting them any new mkts, resources,the banks, companies,deals opportunity will be theirs in future effectively colonization. The International community, port access will also have to go through them rather than n.s
    The difference in capital source in n & s is Arabs will want their money back + interest or as lever(no free lunch) and are generally shaky partners were as oil is not owed.Riyadh will want to order khtm around

  20. You obviously don't know much about North Sudan.

    I'm a Northern Sudanese Nubian who also happens to have ancestry from the Hejaz.

    I speak Nubian and my Nubian culture is 7500 years old.

    That is indigenous.

    You obviously don't know anything about Northern Sudanese 'culture' which originated in *Sudan's* Niles and not the deserts of Arabia.

    Northern Sudanese are as black as the Ethiopians, Eritreans, Djiboutians and Somalis.

    *Khartoum* as opposed to Juba, recently appointed an envoy to the EAC, a step towards joining.

    South Sudan's membership is being fast-tracked, but Khartoum is also joining.

    You obviously don't know anything about Sudanese-Ethiopian relations.

    Sudan does not support the OLF or the Shabab - Sudan supports Ethiopia's Millennium Dam...
    Somalia's President Sheikh Sharief Ahmad was in Khartoum last week...
    North Sudan's indicted President was in Djibouti as a guest of honour of President Guelli in his inauguration...
    North Sudan is part and parcel of East Africa - Egypt isn't.

    Yes Darfur is pitted in the media as a dichotomous ethnic conflict, but it's still black on black - when Colin Powell visited he asked 'where are the Arabs'?

    It might suit you to on one hand poke fun at the skin tone of the Northern Sudanese and on the other hand try and allege that they aren't black - but whether you like it or, we are black.

    Seriously, if you don't know what you're talking about, don't bother.

  21. YHM has superb understanding of the matter and posted good examples. Let's hope all will go peacefuly.


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