Sunday, May 20, 2012

#Egyelections : The upper Egyptian vote

It is only matter of hours and the first real presidential elections will start in Egypt , it is only matter of hours and honestly we do not know who will be the next president of Egypt.

Now I wrote before about the Christian vote in Egypt and tonight I believe I should write another important voting bloc in Egypt : The Upper Egyptian vote.

Quick facts :
  • Upper Egypt consists of the following governorates : Fayoum, Bani Sawif, Sohag , Al Mania, Assuit , Qena ,Red Sea, Luxor and Aswan. "They are Upper Egyptians who live in Aswan along with the Nubian"
  • The main tribes in Upper Egypt are : Al Hawara , Al Arab, Al Ashraf , Gowhina, Bani Helal, Tamim,Harab and Al Rashida.
  • Upper Egypt suffers from poverty , illness and unemployment more than area in the country.
  • Upper Egypt got tons of social problems when it comes to customs and traditions that are against religion and law.
  • Upper Egypt has got a bitter history with the state because of illegal arms trade and the bloody past of Jihadi militant groups in 1980s and 1990s
  • Upper Egypt has got huge economic potentials if it is reached in the right way.
When it comes to the Islamist vote in Upper Egypt , we are speaking here about Al Gama'a Al Islamiyaa and it's political arm "The development and building party" more than the Muslim brotherhood. Al Gama'a Al Islamiyaa endorses Abdel Moneim Abu El Fotouh yet we should not forget that the MB and its political arm " The freedom and justice party" scored several seats in Upper Egypt.

Still regardless of what you may think , when it comes to the presidential elections , the tribal vote and the tribal choice play important role above anything. This is why only those who know the key of Upper Egypt for real is the tribes that should be reached from long time.

According to my dear friend "Biso" , my trusted source on Upper Egypt the tribal vote there at least in three governorates including Qana and Sohag leans towards Amr Moussa. I am not surprised because from a year ago Moussa was roaming Upper Egypt and Sinai more than any presidential candidate. Of course according to Biso and his very trusted sources members of the former regime in Upper Egypt who contacts and influence with the tribes support his campaign.

Reuters published a Report about Sohag in Upper Egypt where allegedly the people still support Mohamed Hosni Mubarak !! Based on that report we can predict that Shafik may got those Mubarak's sympathizers.

Inside the Upper Egyptian vote bloc , we got a very important "The Christian Upper Egyptian vote". From what I understand the Church made it clear that it will not recommend any specific presidential candidate leaving the freedom of choice. Some say that the Christians in Upper Egypt will choose either Amr Moussa or Shafik but fear to say it officially thanks to the Islamist presence there. Well it does not need a wild guess to know that the Christian vote will lean to non Islamist presidential candidates regardless they are revolutionaries or not.

Now this does not mean Moussa or Shafik not will get for sure the votes in Upper Egypt ,it is still estimation.


  1. Upper Egypt is below Lower Egypt on the map... WTF... hahaha

  2. Just for the record, my in-laws in Upper Egypt have decided to vote for Hamdeen Sabbahi. They are not Christians, but don't want to support the islamists - or anyone that been close to Mubarak's regime.

    From what they say, more have been swaying towards Sabbahi lately - but as you say, it's just hours away before we start to know (or not) ...

  3. Hamdeen Sabbahi video with English subtitles provided by MEMRI. His statements about the West show him to be a parochial ethnocentric bigot -- the Egyptian equivalent of an American redneck.

    "They are wealthy today because their forefathers robbed mine. If not for my forefathers there could be no modern civilization. This would have been impossible. Without the civilization led by the Arabs and the Muslims, at a time when the Europeans did not even know how to bathe themselves. They did not even have toilets in their homes back then."

    He's an asshole and a loser.

    Really, Egypt, I wish you the best and hope you find someone who understands what Egypt's problems are and who's to blame for them (hint: Not Americans, Europeans or Jews), but the fact that you have people like Hamdeen Sabbahi as serious candidates does not give one great hope.

  4. My parents and our family will be voting for Sabbahi. The fact that the west calls him a bigot and equivalent to an American redneck is proof that they are scared of someone who won't bow down to their every demand. I do not agree with all of his views but there is no doubting his political experience and opposition to the regime that drove us backwards for years.

    Abo El Fotoh is ok, and has recruited good people around him but tries to please everyone and I can't shake off the view that he is an Islamist by nature and more conservative than he likes to make out. I will only vote for him if he made it to the run off against Morsi, or the felool candidates (Moussa/Shafik).

  5. Does Upper Egypt have more Islamist presence than Lower Egypt / Delta ?

    Are Upper Egyptians more or less religious ( I mean Salafi type) than Lower Egyptians ?

  6. Typical really how you lump Nubians and Aswan with other sa3ayda to dilute their past, present and future, their specific grievances concerns, history and culture.

    One day soon Nubians will be dealing with Nubian affairs.

    What about the vote in the open air prison that Mubarak created when he illegally occupied Halayeb?


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