The Minister of industry and trade announced yesterday in a press conference that our own wheat reserve is enough for 4 months only and we will have a wheat crisis coming thanks to the fires currently in Russia.
As you know the fires in Russia have destroyed 1/5 of its crops forcing the country to ban wheat exports and pushing up the prices of grains worldwide.
First of all I will respect the decision of minister Rashid Mohamed Rashid to address the matter directly in a press conference , he did not wait till it reaches to the press. Of course he knew that it would only take hours or even days when our press ,at least the independent and opposition press make the connection between the ban decision and our imports from Russia.
Second of all until when we will depend on foreign wheat imports like that when we have got Nasser lake , Sinai and Hala'ib that can be reclaimed and help Egypt to regain its position as the world's grain basket !!?? Until when we will depend upon foreign wheat imports that do not meet international or even human standards sabotaging any promising project from the agricultural researches center in Egypt that can solve our wheat deficiency using genetic engineering !!?? 1
The wheat problem in Egypt is not the result of the rapid increase of population only , in fact if you search for other reasons you will find even before the increasing population there are three decades of wrong agricultural policies or to be accurate three decades of wrong agricultural strategies that are murdering our agricultural wealth while we are watching in dismay . The Egyptian farmer now is fought by the government and its policies leading him to leave farming altogether !!
Our water is being lost in swimming polls and golf courts where as our agricultural land is diminishing every month thanks to corruption.
We have put hopes that Toshka project would solve the wheat problem of Egypt but it turned out to be Mubarak's biggest fiascos thanks also to the corruption of the regime that gave hundreds of thousands of acres there to Al Walid for nearly nothing and in return he only reclaimed 10,000 acres !! I still believe that we can gain something from the Toshka project despite all the the criticism , we can gain something from it of course not in the time of that corrupted regime.
We are heading to hard days indeed !!!
Last century we used to have a Wheat day in our national calendar and Mohamed Abdel Wahab sang for it from the lyrics of Hussein El-Siyad in year 1947.
Notes
1. I have heard it by my own ears that there was a very promising project that can solve our wheat problem from our agricultural researches center using genetic engineering and after early field experiments that proved its success , the project had to be ended by orders from above and do not ask me why or how.
It doesn't help that the vast bulk of Egyptian agriculture is dedicated to cash crops that use a lot of water like cotton. Also, not all of Egypt's water reserves can or should be used for irrigation - it's dangerous business tapping into that too much.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all we got a huge reservoir from under ground water , we can desalinate water from two seas using nuclear energy
ReplyDeleteSecond of all if you have proper irrigation policies , if you do not waste your water on swimming pools and golf courts
It is not dangerous if you planned for it wisely , it is worth to try instead of welcoming a food starvation and political blackmail from other countries
@Zeinobia,
ReplyDelete"Second of all until when we will depend on foreign wheat imports like that when we have got Nasser lake , Sinai and Hala'ib that can be reclaimed and help Egypt to regain its position as the world's grain basket !!??"
Z, if you talk about growing wheat in Hala'ib, Africanist and Sudanese Observer are going to show up and pummel you.
"I have heard it by my own ears that there was a very promising project that can solve our wheat problem from our agricultural researches center using genetic engineering and after early field experiments that proved its success , the project had to be ended by orders from above and do not ask me why or how."
I can tell you exactly why and how. It comes down to Luddism, self-absorbed hand wringing, and squeamishness about taking genes from here and putting them there. It makes genetic engineering detractors feel good about themselves. Bla bla Frankenfood bla bla bla. The needless death and suffering they inflict upon the world bother them not a bit.
Good for your good sense regarding improvement of crops through genetic engineering. It is a minority position, unfortunately, in most of the world. In 2002, Zambia refused to accept genetically modified maize, starving millions. Western Europeans are just as bad in their own preening Luddite refusals of genetically modified food, but unlike the Zambians they avoid starving to death; the damage is limited to their pocketbooks. Golden rice could save millions of children every year from xerophthalmia, but the daffodil genes offend aesthetic sensibilities, so the children will just have to go blind. Tough luck, kids.
America is the leader in genetically modified food, but even here it's not that popular.
Mr. Rashid is sending a very disturbing forecast that will affect the main staple of low income Egyptians in 3-5 months.
ReplyDeleteAnticipate another increase in the price of bread which constitutes the main staple for the survival of 60% Egyptians.
The Arabic word for bread is 'khobz' whereas Egyptians refer to it as 'Aeish' or life.
A major food crisis is developing in Eurasia and Africa caused by a 50% increase in wheat prices over the last month due to severe drought conditions in Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan.
ReplyDeleteThe European wheat price jumped 8% in one day, the biggest one-day jump in three decades. It is feared that the price could reach the proportions of the 2007-08 food crisis, when wheat prices reached EU300 a ton. Prices have not increased this fast since the collapse of the Soviet harvest in 1972-73, due then to drought conditions.
Listed below in descending order are the top 10 wheat producers in the world.
China
India
United States of America
Russian Federation
Canada
Pakistan
Ukraine
Australia
Turkey
Kazakhstan
OK I'm staring to see the logic, or lack thereof here...
ReplyDeleteThe same logic that claims sovereignty over Halayeb through illegal military annexation think that wheat can be grown large-scale in that occupied area!
This proves the ignorance of the author on all matters related to Halayeb, which is extremely water scarce.
Egypt's groundwater reserves are non-recharging since Egypt receives such little rainfall and desalination is expensive.
So you might want to do something about your burgeoning population and start living in the present without the glories of the past.
All objective analyses lead to the conclusion that Egypt will continue to import food just like Libya and Saudi Arabia (although they are far wealthier) - after all most Egyptian territory is desert and the consumptive uses of the Nile's waters upstream and midstream in Sudan will continue.
@Sudanese Observer 4:26 AM
ReplyDelete'So you might want to do something about your burgeoning population...'
One of the main root causes for Egypt's poverty is its rate of population increase over the past 45 years.
Time and time again the government has failed to educate, change and control the causes of this problem, instead they chose to ignore it as usual hoping it will go away.
Population control solutions are well known and abundant throughout the world and has worked in several countries who took the task seriously.
The population of a country is considered a resource and as such it has to be controlled wisely.
The Canadian.
Zeinobia you might want to reconsider your stance re: occupied Halayeb since Egypt's policy-makers consider Sudan to be the 'solution' to its food security problems...
ReplyDeleteSufi Abu Taleb said on an interview on Sudan tv that without Sudan fulfilling its promise of securing Egypt's food security - Egyptians would end up eating each other.
Either way that doesn't affect myself and many other Sudanese who view Halayeb as being under illegal military occupation - just like the Golan in Syria - and who view Sudan's hierarchy of objectives as having to be targeted towards the Sudanese citizen, whether in the North or South.
Egypt has been doing its own thing with the QIZ and other international strategies and its problems are not ours.
@Zol: I wish you guys do and read on the issue of halayeb from the public int law perspective. Its considered a disputed land clearly so, its no way like Gulan which is considered clearly occupied territory by US resolutions. Again its insulting to compare the two issues in the first place. Second, The very fact that Sudan unilaterally withdrew its forces and any other Sudanese existence is strong evidence of conceding to Egyptian sovereignty over the area BTW. Last but not least, you only remembered Halayieb when there were predictions of oil there and when Egypt spoke out and made it clear to the companies your criminal president contracted with these companies cancelled the contracts and only then you remembered Halyaieb. Despite the fact that our gov had done so little to our ppl in general, they have done way more than you have ever done to the ppl there. I recommend that instead of looking for a fight w Egypt you make sure u wont end up killing each other again. As for our food supplies you arent our only option and mark my words any time you represent a threat to us we will defend our interests like any other country will react to any threat to its interests so, stop threatening us you wont force us to give back whats not your in the first place by water and food threats from a country on the verge of breaking up. Its so sad what you have done to your own country and your own ppl to make it impossible to stay as one
ReplyDeletemark my words any time you represent a threat to us we will defend our interests like any other country will react to any threat to its interests so, stop threatening us you wont force us to give back whats not your in the first place by water and food threats from a country on the verge of breaking up
ReplyDeleteYeah, yeah - Ethiopia is building dams and Egypt can do nothing to stop it.
Our consumptive uses of water are increasing and will do so exponentially - whilst your over-reliance on the Nile and burgeoning population and inability to desalinate are serious problems.
Do you know when the dispute over Halayeb first flared up?
Did oil have anything to do with it in the 50's? No.
So your point about oil or any other type of natural resources is defunct.
The Nimeiri-Sadat agreement was actually to let Egypt keep whatever minerals were found in Halayeb, as long as Sudan continued to exercise its administrative sovereignty which is what the peoples of Halayeb - the Beja, Abaabda, Bishariyeen, Beni Aamir and Rashaida want.
Are you familiar with public international law case law on this issue?
Have you read the judgement of the ICJ on the Nigeria-Cameroon dispute over the Bakassi Peninsula?
We have our case ready.
Why will Egypt not agree to international arbitration over this dispute the same way that it agreed to international arbitration with *Israel* over Taba????????????????????????????
The Sudanese armed forces were tied down in a debilitating war in the South which was facilitated in a proxy capacity by Eritrea, Ethiopia and Uganda (following Madeline Albright's strategy to destabilise the government in Khartoum).
That was when the decision was made to invade and occupy Halayeb.
And for your information there are Sudanese troops 'in' Halayeb who have not left since it was occupied and who are virtual prisoners but who 'refuse' to evacuate the territory.
Not once has Sudan 'accepted' the status quo, this is evidenced in many official statements at the Presidential and Ministerial levels and at the United Nations.
Sudan bans the publication of maps or the importation of maps that show Halayeb falling within Egyptian territory and thankfully most of the world recognises that.
There is no difference between the lands occupied in the Levant and the Occupied Territories and Halayeb.
It's the same use of force to legitimate ownership over the land and sovereignty.
Of course any Egyptian chauvinist whose analysis of history disregards the other, considers Sudan's independence struggle as Egypt 'giving Sudan away', believes in Egypt's manifest destiny to lead and be special will think otherwise.
But the majority of the Sudanese population view Halayeb's status quo as one of illegal military occupation.
And the natural resources that are in Sudan, and I refer to the water resources, are ours, just like the waters found in Ethiopia are hers to use as she sees fit.
The only compromise is that the water should be used in a 'reasonable and equitable' manner - as set out in the UN Watercourses Convention.
We all know that Egypt thinks its position is right and that of 7 other countries is wrong and it clings to the doctrine of historical use which (like Egypt's regional pre-eminence) has been long forfeited.
Yes Sudan is on the verge of a peaceful divorce - and do you know what this means for Egypt?
A more concentrated stance, particularly on the South Sudanese side to look out for *their* interests and not Egypt's.
Yes it's sad that so many Sudanese have died fighting to keep two distinct groups of people together who wanted different destinies - and it's suspect that the Egyptian position has always been in favour of the 'unity' of Sudan, even if this meant war, death and destruction.
I repeat:
Why will Egypt not agree to international arbitration over this dispute the same way that it agreed to international arbitration with *Israel* over Taba????????????????????????????
Its considered a disputed land clearly so, its no way like Gulan which is considered clearly occupied territory by US resolutions. Again its insulting to compare the two issues in the first place.
ReplyDeleteI assume you mean 'UN' resolutions...
Well with regards to Halayeb the members of the Security Council in the 50's sided with Sudan in condemning any attempts by Egypt to militarily annex Halayeb and AbdalNasser withdrew.
It's interesting to note your use of the term 'insulting' - welcome to our world.
'What's not yours in the first place'
ReplyDeleteTypically arrogant.
And what's not ours - is yours?
Wake up and smell the *Ethiopian* coffee:
http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35907
Ethiopians urge US to play major role to resolve Nile water controversy
Tuesday 10 August 2010
By Tesfa-Alem Tekle
August 9, 2010 (ADDIS ABABA) – Ethiopians and Ethiopian-Americans living in Washington DC urged the U.S. government to play a significant role in bringing a lasting solution to the calls for equitable utilization of the Nile River waters among riparian states.
Hundreds of Ethiopians and friends of Ethiopia last week rallied in Washington DC in support of the Nile Basin agreement equitable, which aims to divide water from Africa’s longest river more equally.
The Ethiopian-Americans expressed grave concern on the matter, hinting a possibility of the controversy turning in to confrontation further calling on the U.S. Secretary of State to take supportive steps to bring an inclusive resolution for the questions of equitable utilization to the Nile River water resources.
After more than a decade of talks rejecting the outdated colonial era Nile water treaty signed in 1929 and 1959; Ethiopia, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Kenya signed the agreement in May without the other Nile Basin countries – Egypt, Sudan, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of the Congo – who have one year to join the pact.
Rally organizers told Media outlets that Ethiopia is in the middle of very important negotiations among the nine Nile Basin States which has the potential to escalate to a violent conflict if mishandled.
Ethiopia believes that this age old problem can be resolved through negotiations that should produce an acceptable solution that protects the interests of all riparian nations of the Nile, they said.
We believe that the United States should play a supportive positive role in helping to resolve this controversy. A fair and equitable resolution of the issue will greatly assist Ethiopia in its efforts to make poverty a thing of the past and continue the momentum of economic growth, they added.
Upstream countries argue that until now Egypt and Sudan have kept an unfair share of water from the Nile sharing advantage over other Nile basin countries including Ethiopia, which contributes over 80% of the total waters to the Nile basin.
Representatives of upstream countries say they are "tired of first getting permission from Egypt before using river Nile water for any development project like irrigation", as required by a treaty signed during the colonial era between Egypt and Britain in 1929.The new agreement, once effective, is designed to replace the Nile Basin Initiative.
An agreement signed in 1929 between Egypt and Great Britain, which represented its African colonies along the 5,584 kilometres (3,470 mile) river, gave Egypt veto power over upstream projects.
Another agreement signed in 1959 between Egypt and Sudan allowed Egypt alone to use 55.5 billion cubic meters (87% of the Nile’s flow) and Sudan 18.5 cubic metres of water each year. Ethiopia, the biggest water contributor to the Nile basin, and the rest of the riparian countries has been left out.
According to Report from the Ministry of Water Resources, Ethiopia, with an area of 1.08 million square kilometers, has twelve river basins with a mean annual flow of roughly 120.22 billion cubic meters of water.
NBI member countries include Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda.
(ST)
Our criminal President...
ReplyDeleteIf only our 'criminal' President would disappear Sudan, under the leadership of the Umma Party or the Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement or Darfuri or Eastern Parties would sign up to the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement with our neighbours who know and respect us - I don't think your 'heroic' President would like that though...
It is only 'a matter of time'.
Is there something wrong with the recent comments tab?
More blah blah from Sudanese with inferiority complexes who hate Egypt.
ReplyDeleteI know more about Public International Law than the 3 of u combined. The issue is A DISPUTED TERRITORY LISTED AS SUCH IN ANY BOOK DEALING WITH SUCH MATTERS. Precedents are important but its your own opinion that the situation is identical while its not. Halayieb is in Egypt per first maps ever made by the Brits, then in control of both Egypt and Sudan and that was back in 1912 if I remember the dates correctly.
Halayeb has administrative and military existence from Egypt not Sudan. Im laughing at Sudanese soldiers still there are you an idiot? How could the Egyptian army allow that and how could you claim these are soldiers, taken in and then say they refused to leave and are stationed there?!! Make up your mind are they normal citizens of soldiers, are they hostages or free?!!! Also, plz check reliable sources of int law on the issue and they mention the unilateral Sudanese withdrawal and its legal implication. The very fact that we are allowed to have the minerals is another indication of who has sovereignty over the area, thanks for the info.
For me you do not speak on behalf of the tribes living there (or Sudanese ppl in general, since i run wt u bark about here by my Sudanese friends & they expressed different version from wt you present here as facts) its clear the three of you belong to a particular group that has issues with Egypt and are only after this Halayieb issue not bec you care for its ppl but to exploit it as a point against Egypt.
its none of your business what we do with Ethiopia or Souther Sudan. We are sure ppl like you do not wish us well and we are certainly not waiting for idiots like you to give us advice. Egypt has one of the strongest armies in the World and we are capable and i think coming from Sudan you still remember how capable we are but we dnt like using military might to settle issue. And btw that is not being arrogant, Im simply stating things they way they are. Any country that feels another is being a threat to its interests and fails to reach a peaceful settlements of disputes will react the same way.
We wont go to arbitration bec you are not strong enough to force us to do so and bec we do not see a point at the time being to willingly do so. Id love to see how any of the big powers who already occupy places in the World could make any pressure against us to do so.
Last but not least, we havent asked you to save us from our food crisis so, stop acting as if we have asked for any thing. When we wanted lands in your country we did so just like the long line of investors from several countries doing the same thing but of course idiots like your selves who still live in the illusion that we want your country only spoke out when they found Egyptians doing the same thing you allowed others to do. This is a global system of trade you can not ban a particular nationality from investing and you also make profits from investors. Also, like it or not, we did give Sudan away but thats a fact you wont even admit or understand its meaning and how it reflects our intentions. You had your country to run and you failed badly and ended up killing each other and the same will happen soon after the independence. Also, I asked several times, what have you done to Halayeb? What kind of development and services have you done to its ppl? NOTHING
Thank God I met other Sudanese who live outside this circle of hate and like Z said one day you will realize we were not the enemy but it will be too late.
Z, I repeat my request to rid us of this useless repeated hateful comments from the 3 Sudanese
Claims of idiocy and inferiority complexes...
ReplyDeleteYour lack of class, close-mindedness and insults do nothing but provide solace and inspiration.
On Sudan's independence struggle being the result of Egypt 'giving Sudan away'...
Sudan, like Halayeb was not legitimately Egypt's to administer or give away...
The moral case for occupation cannot be justified according to whims - either it's right or it's wrong.
The glorious Mahdist revolution which united the Sudanese provides clear and undeniable evidence that occupation of any part of Sudan is a losing strategy.
Halayeb has administrative and military existence from Egypt not Sudan.
Since when?
And yes there are Sudanese soldiers in Halayeb, Presidential Advisor Musa Muhammad Ahmad, head of the Eastern Front spoke to them from across the 'barrier' when he tried to visit the area last December, but was denied entry - actually the Egyptian occupation forces kept the barrier up and left, refusing to engage with him.
For your information since you claim to know about Public International Law, an agreement to share or concede mineral resources does not legitimate any claim to territorial sovereignty, on the contrary it is often negotiated between disputing parties with one claiming sovereignty and the other having a share or no share in the mineral resources - this is the case between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain and this is the case in various International Joint Development Agreements...
And do you know that the sources of Public International Law are - when you say 'check the sources that mention Sudanese withdrawal'?
The sources of Public International Law are listed in Article 38.1 (b) of the Statute of the International Court of Justice.
I think you mean check the doctrine and the precedent.
I suggest you read up on the principle of the 'consistent objector' - which Ethiopia has been with regards to the 1929 and 1959 Agreements, in spite of its agreement with Egypt in 1993...
What we did for Halayeb is comparable to what Egypt had done to its bedouins when the Egyptian economy was suffering from the effects of war - very little.
That being the case 'doing things' for people is not a basis upon which territorial disputes can be settled from a Public International Law perspective.
It's a public relations endeavour to win the locals over - and judging from the number of tribal civil society leaders from Halayeb who languish in Egyptian prisons without facing trial - the strategy has not worked.
I suggest you know something about Sudan first before making claims on which positions are mainstream and which aren't.
These articles which are written by experts are crystal clear:
The Egyptian role in Sudan’s development and underdevelopment 1899-2010
http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35500
Why Sudanese public opinion opposes the Nile Water Agreements?
http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article35863
of course it's our business what you do with Ethiopia and South Sudan, since we are 'midstream'.
And if you think 'we' don't wish you well - you should visit Juba and Addis Abeba and ask all kinds of people what their view on successive Egyptian policy towards their region and country is...
Egypt has one of the strongest armies in the World and we are capable and i think coming from Sudan you still remember how capable we are but we dnt like using military might to settle issue.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean we remember what you are capable of?
You cannot be referring to the defeat of Egyptian troops by Mahdist freedom fighters...
Egypt was nothing but an accessory in the reconquest of 1899 - read Winston Churchill's 'River War'.
We had our country to run and we failed badly because we had a generation of leaders (apart from those from the Umma Party) who were duped into believing that Egypt's involvement in Sudanese affairs was positive...
And the long shadow cast by Muhammad Ali's attempt to get Sudan 'by force' for its gold, negroid soldiers and to secure the sources of the Nile has cast a long shadow over the willingness of that duped generation of leaders to see Sudan for what it really is...
It is really ironic and unfortunate that our troops fought in your wars, against a neighbouring country *of yours* that you have gone to war with and then signed peace agreements with - and this includes our 'criminal' President.
Egypt cannot use military force against Sudan or Ethiopia over the Nile waters dispute.
It would be a failed diplomatic endeavour that would cripple Egypt's economy.
Sudan will not allow Egypt to use its territory and airspace to attack Ethiopia.
The United States will not allow Egypt to attack one of its most strategic partners in the war on terror in the horn of Africa - and I refer to Ethiopia.
An attack on Ethiopia would be considered as an attack on its east African neighbours - particularly Kenya and Tanzania and this will only increase the resolve of those States to increase their consumptive uses of the Nile's water.
Egypt's economy would collapse from the cost of waging an 'overseas' war.
What would Egypt attack in Sudan?
Our agricultural infrastructure?
Our bridges?
The Israeli Foreign Minister said it himself, that having a large dam that holds back billions of cubic metres of water in Egypt is a strategic weakness as it can be easily attacked...
Get real, get some class, intellectual pedigree and discursive maturity and then you can start to contemplate addressing problems from a realistic and objective perspective.
ReplyDeleteAnd the claim that you 'gave us away' is ridiculous - it's like saying that Britain gave India or the United States away - they, and you weren't supposed to be there in the first place and many people struggled and lost their lives for the cause.
But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt - 'enlighten me' on the 'meaning' of Egypt 'giving Sudan away' and how it reflects your collective intentions...
The point you make about strength influencing negotiation is a good one - so you're in favour of 'might being right'?
And yes the major powers will not put pressure on Egypt to go to arbitration over occupied Halayeb or the Nile waters dispute - but time is not in Egypt's favour.
Just causes will remain just, and established hegemony whithers away through counter-hegemonic strategies.
As you know in international relations States and regimes are expendable - Sudan is trying to be more Catholic than the Pope in its stance on the Middle East Peace Process - the Darfuri Sudan Liberation Movement has an office in Israel - if we took a page out of your book and signed a peace agreement with Israel - some pundits claim that the power political game would be re-set in our favour...
And Egypt's structural problems are grave - limited land, limited water resources, vast deserts, *a burgeoning population*.
I think it's clear to the whole world that Egypt's 'power' both soft and hard has diminished in the Middle East, and was never recognised in most of Africa anyway - soon all chauvinists will have to cling on will be 'the glories of the past'.
A large swathe of your policy-makers, especially those who has served and witnessed the eras of Sadat and AbdalNasser are obsessed with Sudan being a conduit for Egypt's food security. 'Food security' features high on the priority of joint projects between Sudan and Egypt - and the Sudanese are engaging other partners who don't have ulterior motives for the attainment of food security 'for the Sudanese'.
And FYI countries can and do ban certain investors through a variety of means including the plain refusal of tender offers which is what the Sudanese authorities rightfully did with Sawiris - Kuwaiti and Emarati investors won the tenders and have been successful and popular ever since.
I made reference to 'discursive maturity' for good reason - because one of the weakest and easiest cop-out strategies in any discussion is to flag the hate card and to engage in offensive defence.
One day 'you' will realise that it's not a case of emotions and you will wish that you were able to engage with people - even if they held different opinions - and to try and see things from their perspective - but then it most definitely will be too late.
Reality bites doesn't it Zeinobia?
ReplyDeletehttp://af.reuters.com/article/investingNews/idAFJOE67I0EG20100819
Egypt does not have the natural or financial resources to expand food production and it seems that the policy makers are finally realising the benefits of optimising the potential of what Egypt has - away from any delusions of grandeur that are built on 'the glories of the past'.
Toshka, being an unsustainable and completely inefficient water project - will soon be relegated to the dustbin of history.
As can any hair-brained schemes to plant occupied Halayeb.
And by the way Ramadan Kareem.