Today I found the headline in "Daily Akhbar" today saying
Israeli is making ready for the invasion of Lebanon !!
These news is based about some military source and the truth that the 7,000 reserve soldiers were ordered to take the army positions in the Palestinian territories in Gaza and west Bank , and the army is sent to the Northern borders, it is also based upon the fact that the rate of the Israeli special forces in the south of Lebanon is exceeding despite the fact all of them were big failure and it seemed to me they are kind of "Hit and Run" operations ; the last one of them was today were 3 soldiers died
Now land invasion is not as easy the Air Strikes and Sea blockade
It is difficult ,very difficult decision , the Israelis before the Lebanese must calculate its risk
These news I believe is part of the Psychological war Israel always use to scare the Lebanese , I won't say that I am sure it won't happen but we must put all the scenarios on the table if we want to see the future .
From two days I listen to an ex-general in the Egyptian Army who used to be the head of the Strategic studies centre in it , so he is an expert. He said that what Israel is making right now in the south of Lebanon is like the "Carpet cleaning" ,and he gave an example to explain what he meant
"When you clean a carpet with a a carpet sweeper, you divide the carpet in to squares then start hitting on each of those square to let the dust get out to be totally clean then you start to move on to another square to clean the rest of the carpet "
Israel according to the general is using the same technique , it cleans the south by destroying any kind of life that can hold any kind of resistance to them in case and he thinks that will happen a land invasion , The Air forces are clearing the way for the Land troops in the south .
So the Egyptian Expert ex-general saw that Israel may in fact will invade the south , the south only
This guy was on Al-Arabya news channel
On the other hand on the Lebanese News channel ANB , I heard this Lebanese expert saying the following :
"There will be no land invasion for the south for the following reason , how the Israeli troops will move their vehicles and weapons and so on in the south without bridges and roads, there is no single working bridge in Lebanon , there is no bridge in the south that wasn't hit by the Israeli raids"
This another view , realistic view , Israel hit all the bridges and roads in the South and with its mountainous topographic nature it will be difficult to move heavy military weaponry like tanks and so in the Lebanese land , It is a propaganda to make people in the south scared , a psychological war
This view is enforced by two facts Israel got no allies like what happened in the 1980s, the destruction is reached to all Lebanon with no difference Marawheen was a Sunni , today El-Ashrafya in East Beirut with a majority of Christian inhabitants was hit and yesterday a church was hit too. this is just the beginning.
The south the whole south and Shiite community is against Israel , not only they are targeting HazbAllah but they targeted Shiite worshiping places ,Clerics like Hussein Fadl Allah and Nabiah Berry whose home was under fire today , so the regular Shiites, the Amal movement and HazbAllah supporters are all against the Israeli
The rest of the Lebanese people don't like the scene of their ruined country in which they spent the last 20 years trying to fix all what the Lebanese civil war which also Israel got its dirty share in it .
People in All Lebanese Tv channels are cursing Israel
I don't know how the Israeli ministers think when they say we will have a normal peaceful relations with the Lebanese people after these barbaric attacks !!
Anyway back to the land invasion as I presented the two points of view which are speculations based upon givens on the ground
in My opinion if the Israelis didn't make progress in limiting HizbAllah this week , then expect anything including an Invasion to the South
Israel now is in a deep trouble , it has underestimated the power of HizbAllah ,we all did , but the Usual Israeli arrogance made the government gave promises to its people I see it a burden that can open the hell's doors
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