Saturday, December 3, 2011

#Elections 2011-2012 : First Stage results

And today the high elections commission has announced the first stage of parliamentary elections’ results at 8 PM on Friday in a short press conference. Actually the HEC told the journalists that they will get the papers with detailed breakdown and publish it.
Now here is in English the results of the individual seats in details of the first stage of the Egyptian parliamentary elections , the people’s assembly elections by Hany Rasmy and Evan Hill. Here is also a version of the individual seats in Arabic from Ahram Arabic portal.
Up till now we do not understand any thing when it comes to the list , we do not understand if we should wait for the final lists seats results or what. Anyhow Mostafa El Hoshy on twitter made a nice diagram about the lists votes results announced past week.
Percent of party/list votes by Mostafa El Hoshy

According to the HCE the voting percentage in the first stage of parliamentary elections 2011/2012 is 62% which is the highest percentage in the history of parliamentary elections in Egypt. “According to the chairman of the HCE it is the highest percentage since the pharaohs !!”
Now Al Masry Al Youm has published a report claiming that the 62% was wrong and that the voting percentage was less than that adding it could be about 48%. Already it seems that there is a confusion in numbers after all those days which I do not get it.  Thank Goodness it was not the whole country !! For reminder here are the list of governorates in this stage : Cairo , Alexandria, Port Said , Asuit , Red Said , Kafr El Sheikhm , Damietta , Luxor and Fayoum.
Back to the HCE numbers the total number of voters in the 9 governorates are 13,614,525. Only 8,449,115 voters have casted their votes last week. The nullified votes in the 9 governorates are 517,967 votes from 8,449,115 votes. The correct votes are 7,931,148 votes. The number of general polling stations are 28 while the subsidiary polling stations are 9837 in the 9 governorates. 10,148 judges have supervised this stage.
There are run offs between the MB and Salafists which is interesting and there are run offs between religious trend and liberal treat as well which is more polarizing. Mostafa El Hoshy did another diagram about the secular liberal list and Islamists list in the govvernorates , it is amazing

Now you must know the Salafists rising power is a threat to the Muslim brotherhood because now the conservative vote unlike what you think is spilt between the MB and the Salafists who are more conservative. If it were not the Salafists , the MB would have swept this stage and these elections to be honest.There will be a 30 run offs between the MB’s FJ party and the Salafists in this round. Actually knowing how the MB think , I believe there can be an alliance between the MB and liberal more than the MB and Salafists because the MB got old connections with the outside world especially the States and EU unlike the new comers aka Salafists.
When we read the numbers we find that the liberal powers had a good chance but unfortunately they spilt votes among themselves, and the best example on this is how Nihal Ahady spoiled the opportunity of Gamila Ismail as she got 11,000 votes our revolutionary wonderful lady needed to put an end for the Kasr Al Nil constituency race so easily.  I hope in the reruns as well in the upcoming stages we avoid this. Of course there are no ladies in the re-runs.
Strangely the NDP orphans did not win as expected in this stage including the big shots of the NDP like for instance Omar Haridy and this shows that we overestimated their powers.
Of course this is not the end , this is just the beginning. 

Update :

The HEC has published the results of individual seats of the first stage in the 9 governorates. According to these results there are 4 Christians running in the run offs , one in Cairo , Asuit and two in Red sea. Three of them are competing over the individual seats and one over the labor seats.
Now Ahram Arabic portal published another breakdown for the number of votes for parties and coalitions based on the results . The results are as follows for the first 11 parties  :
  1. Freedom and Justice party got 3,565,092 votes
  2. Salafist Nour party got 2,371,713 votes
  3. The Egyptian bloc got 1,414,059 votes
  4. The Wafd party got 690,077 votes
  5. The Wasat party got 415,059 votes
  6. The revolution continues got 335,947 votes
  7. The reform and development party got 185,238 votes
  8. The Egyptian National party got 153,429 votes
  9. The freedom party got 136,784 votes
  10. The El Adl party got 76 ,769 votes.
  11. The conservatives got 76, 743 votes

I am shocked and surprised that the Wafd party got more than the Wasat party and El Ad party , I am shocked and surprised. Is it the campaigning tactics ? After all the Wafd party got these annoying ads day and night especially on the Al Hayat TV network !? I am quite shocked and surprised.

Again we want a breakdown , a real one for the lists in the stages !!
I will update this post and hopefully people will help us to know which parties are felol and which are not.


  1. Very helpful, two remarks really...

    Alwasat party published different statistics for the list. The main difference is Alwasat leading on Alwafd and less percentages for the 2 leading lists.

    As for the the lists, my understanding is that now each list knows how many seat it has got per district. However, you will not know the exact names of the selected candidates per list now because the Parliament will need to maintain 50% for 3omal & basically, the final names of the MPs winning through lists will be declared by the end of Phase 3.

  2. Well done, Zeinobia! the only comprenhensive overview of the elections so far. Thanks.
    Koert Debeuf

  3. The picture is far from clear right now. Religious right-wingers look like the strongest, largest bloc but voters have not thought through the implications of the underlying assumptions regarding government, let alone seen them in practice,in action. Some of the religious parties & personalities look attractive because there is no history of corruption- yet. Wait till they have access to power and proximity to public funds and it will be seen that religious figures can succumb to temptation just as readily as they have all over the world. Someone proclaiming themselves pious doesn't necessarily translate into competence & integrity. Conversely someone with no religion could turn out to be effective & honest. There will be a great deal of trial & error. Make sure the MB backs the right of the people to protest, in case the MB proves to be as corrupt & authoritarian as NDP. They didn't seem to back the latest protests - a bad sign. Its safe to say that if they don't deliver (especially on the economy)they will face the wrath of the people who won't wait for their permission to protest. Good coverage of the elections Zeinobia.

  4. salem je suis choqué par le scores des salafiste.
    c' est le retour du moyenne âge'
    une révolutions tout sa pour des salafistes.
    les frère musulmans ne doit pas faire alliance avec eux'
    l'égypte sa sera l'arabie saoudite.
    les gens attende on règle le chômage logement.
    la sécurité.le scors a vraiment inquiété les europeens scors des islamistes.l égypte doit se remettre au travail.


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