Friday, October 23, 2015

The low turnout turns out officially to be 26.5% "Updated"

And Egypt’s official High Elections Committee “HEC” announced on Wednesday the official results of the first stage of Egypt’s parliamentary elections of 2015.

According to HEC,  the voters’ turnout in the first stage reached 26.56 % with 7,270,594 voters participating in the elections out of 27,402,353 registered voters in 14 governorates.
The valid votes reached 6,584,128 (90.46%) , while the void votes reached 694,466 (9.54%).

The “For the love of Egypt” electoral list won the list based seats while only four candidates won the individual seats including unfortunately Abdel Rahim Ali, the infamous TV host and my Constituency MP officially now.
At the agricultural museum's polling stations in Dokki 
Interestingly HEC should have announced the results at 3 PM Cairo local time at Headquarter in a press conference than it announced that no journalists or reporters would allow to cover that conference except the Egyptian National TV. The reporters and journalists waited outside the HQ.
The conference was pushed back to 5 PM and then to 7 PM !!!

Now I found that interesting turnout turned to be 26.56% when the Pro-Sisi media was screaming and begging the people to go and to vote in those 48 hours because the turnout was low !!
Already I found out that the Military police even sent Cars in cities with sound speakers playing songs associated with voting and elections in Giza aka Boshrat Kheir !!!!!
Al-Masry Al-Youm : Military police encourage people to vote using music !!!
Needless to say, many people in Egypt are skeptical.

This comic below was spread in social media like fire showing the disbelief of many Egyptians.
Officially the turnout reaches to 26.56%
popular comic
They have to be skeptical as we got very interest official statements about the turnout before the official statement of the High Elections Committee.

In statements to MBC Misr TV channel on Monday, the head of Judges Club “who is Pro-regime supporter” stated that the turnout of the elections on the second day did not exceed 6% where as the first day was 2% !!!!
The Judges Club is like a syndicate for all judges in Egypt and currently it has got a special team to cover the elections issuing statements during those two days about the elections.

So how it went from 2% or 6% to become 26% !!!
On the same day, Egypt’s PM Sherif Ismail stated that the turnout reached between 16% t0 20% across the country.

TV Host Mahmoud Saad expressed this disbelief wondering why the Egyptian TV channels broadcasting on air from the polling stations all day long did not see that huge turnout.

Mahmoud Saad : How come the turnout reaches to 26% when polling stations were empty

Saad is considered a Pro-25 January revolution supporter so some can say that he is biased but still it is a fact that TV cameras showed on air empty polling stations.

Personally I know that the turnout would be higher in rural areas, in Upper Egypt where families and clans go and vote all together so their favorite candidate from their clan or just their alley to win in the elections but in big cities, it is another  story.

Already officially, Giza governorate which is one of the biggest voting bloc in Egypt had the lowest turnout with 21%.
I have been touring the polling stations in Giza in the morning and evening in those two days.
Yes, the second day witnessed an increasing turnout but not that huge according to the judges whom I spoke with.

I remember that I spoke with a judge who told me that the government should hold public meetings with the people to know why they did not want to vote and to encourage them to vote !!!

At the Agricultural museum polling station in Dokki
I do not know if it reached to 21% but I crossed checked with my colleagues who covered other areas in the governorate and we all agreed that the number of candidates’ delegates were more than the candidates in most of the polling stations.

Anyhow, we still got the runoffs next 26 and 27 October as well the second stage of the elections on 20 November. We will more to debate about during then.

Updated :

Thanks to Ahmed Fouad and Amr Haggag , we found this statistical miracle in the results of the first stage of the elections. It is very interesting miracle.

امبارح نزلت ملف بيانات نتيجة الانتخابات على سبيل الفضول، وبشوية معادلات خفيفة ظهر أن النتائج شكلها متظبطة ببرنامج فقولت...
Posted by Ahmed Fouad on Thursday, October 22, 2015

Click the See More link to read the English translation.
By the way , I wonder why nobody spoke about how officially the void votes in this elections’ stage reached to 694,466 (9.54%) ?? More than half million voters spoiled their votes for God sake !!!!!!!
Those void votes can not be all unintended mistakes in the ballot papers, can they !??


  1. If you look up the numbers which were reported as "official" turnout levels during Mubarak-era elections, the statistics often seem very implausible. They range from allegedly 23%-47.99%. Given how the NDP feloul were smashed in 2011-2012, the numbers in the past (during Mubarak's reign) were probably inflated somewhat, at least in cases like the purported 47.99%.

    It would not be at all surprising if the current government viewed the true statistic for this election as being too ignominious to report and had some padding conducted, perhaps through preplanned tactics. There are various ways in which manipulations may have raised the number.

    The same likely happened during the constitutional referendum and especially during the presidential coronation/"election." Fraudulent poll organizations like Baseera are meant to help give the illusion that everything supported by the ruling clique has overwhelming public support. These polls help pave the way for rationalizing the outcomes of uncompetitive elections.

    1. Exactly, many people do not believe the numbers too. It won't be a new thing in Egypt. In fact that's the norm before 25 January revolution.


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