Egyptian Chronicles: #Syrian Revolution : Regarding Israel

Friday, March 16, 2012

#Syrian Revolution : Regarding Israel

" Israel’s neighbor is burning” is an Op-ed published in Haartez by Gideon Levy about what Israel can do to help its neighbor Syria and Syrian people. Levy knows very well that Israel can’t intervene directly because any action will unite the Syrian people against it “As if uniting the people of Syria was a bad thing , I stood in front of this phrase a lot t be honest”. This op-ed is very interesting on many levels because it made me think about the Israeli position in the Syrian crisis.

There is no doubt that Israel is worried about the future of its neighbor in the North , the Israelis do not want El Assad and his Pro-Iranian Hezbollah regime but they also do not want a radical Islamist rule or radical nationalist rule to replace El Baath rule especially with the rise of the Islamist powers in the region.

The Israeli military generals want to neutralize if not to weaken the Syrian Arab army , they will welcome something like the new Syrian army indeed with no rockets arsenal or air forces “like what happened in Libya”. You must know according to military experts El Assad has not yet used the full power or capacity with all the brutality we are witnessing .

The Free Syrian army is not yet a threat to Israel especially with weak weaponry and fragmentation but I bet with its current religious ideology shown crystal clear to the world the Israeli military think tanks are wondering if they are going to replace Baath Army with Sunni Islamist army.

Israel is worried despite I know politically the leaders of Israel are somehow welcome this indirect or rather direct confrontation between the Arabs or rather Sunni represented by Saudi Arabia and the Shiite represented by Iran in a battle field called Syria. I know that the IDF commanders are praying day and night that Hezbollah fully engaged in a fight with FSA and hopefully Arab armies so the Arabs and FSA would succeed in what they failed.

It is no longer revolution for the Syrians only but regional game of power.

The question is now does Iran really need Syria to maintain its power as well threat to Israel ? To be honest when I look back to history , I do not think so because if you look back in the 1980s , Hafiz El Assad was not the puppet of Iran like his son on the contrary this close bonding between Iran and Syria happened in the time of his son. During 1980s and 1990s Iran was a threat to Israel yet of course that its existence on the Israeli borders as in Hezbollah was not that powerful.

Despite the support of El Assad regime to Palestinian resistance groups and Hezbollah , the regime itself was not a real danger for Israel when it comes to restore the Golans whether through war or peace.

The Israelis should not be worried that the Syrian refugees will not knock the doors of the Israel nor the Syrian people will want a peace agreement except when they restore the Golan heights. Some Israeli writers claim in their columns that Sunni Syrians want peace with Israel , well the Syrian people regardless of their faith as I know and see want land for peace yet it is not their issue now. Removing El Assad regime from rule in Syria does not mean that Sunni Syrians are going to open their borders with Israel and have normal friendly relations with the Israelis.

I remember clearly the famous slogan the Syrians “Mostly from Sunni” chanted so strong throughout the past year whether inside Syria or outside it: “A lion in Daraa while a mouse in Golan”

Already sectarian rumors in social media among Arabs and Syrians from Sunni say that Israel will welcome El Assad regime and the Alawi sect to the country. It is worth to mention that for decades opponents of Hafiz El Assad stated that he sold Golan heights to the Israelis in direct treason accusation in 1967.

To be honest I read what happened on the 5th, 6th , 7th and 8th of June 1967 and what happened in Golan on the Syrian front was more than mysterious but was more disgusting than what happened in Egypt.

The SNC faced huge troubles and suspicion when some of its members turned to have some relations with Israel and these members had to leave it. 

Already I do not know why some Israeli writers insist on using sectarian and singling out the Sunnis in Syria despite Syria is multi-ethnic sectarian nation for God sake that includes Christians, Shiites, Druze , Alawis and Jews. I do not understand also why some Israeli journalists believe that the Sunni Syrians are pro-Israeli or that Syrian revolution is Israeli friendly. Well they do not believe Israel is friend as they believe that the Israel is helping El Assad and the drones accident in Homs , in Baba Amr enforced this belief. 

One thing for sure these claims or thoughts are taken by El Assad regime and used in his media whether in Syria or outside it to defame the revolution. El Assads used to the resistance and supporting Palestine against Israel game for decades to justify their dictatorship.

I do not think that this file will be opened any time soon and any Syrian politician smart enough will not go to the negotiations table or even support the decision of a military offensive like in 1973 to restore Golan through war when he is rebuilding a nation or a new republic in Syria logically speaking.

Back to the Israelis , well they have to be worried , it is logical and natural ; any respectable country that cares for national security will be worried for the future of its neighbor country especially if it has a long hostile wars with it. For God sake all us of are worried for the future of Syria , we should be worried for Syria.

And by the way Allah is great.

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2 comments :

  1. I like the last line. Not the words of a professional diplomatic correspondent.

    Regarding 67, I think Arab leaders were a little embarrassed in front of their people to
    lose most of the airforces in an instant. Assad was probably worried that as a former Air Force officer his people would have been angry at his incompetance and would have removed him.

    One should always take Israel seriously.

    Its a mistake, not too. If they say they are ready for peace, they mean it. Likewise if they say are ready for war, they mean it.

    But , in this case, its not important what Israel wants. It is what the Syrian people want that is important. And the majority of them don't want Assad.

    The majority of Iranians do not want the Holy Iranian Despot (shadow of God on Earth) either.
    So its not important what other muslims want in this case. They can have their own Holy Dictator in their own countries.

    If the majority of both peoples wanted these Pharoahs to rule over them I would have no objection.

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  2. I know that the syrian events cause a lot of emotional reaction and the easiest thing to do when there's no answers is to find someone to blame. so in a neighbourhood with 22 Arab countries (300 million ppl) and 56 muslim countries (1.4 billion ppl) , there's only one country in sight we can blame is Israel (7.5 million ppl). why well..... long story

    I would love to think that israeli attitude regarding what's happening in Syria is simple as that but it's not. Few facts first:

    1. Israel wanted to intervene ( unfortunately, we always do)
    2. Israel got a very dark RED light from Turkey not to dare and intervene in Syria (and if some will in the future intervene it will be Turkey)
    3. There's been indirect and direct meeting with FSA leaders and they asked Israel NOT to intervene. they wanted money and weapons - that's it. didn't want that the Syrian revolution will be colored with Israeli shade
    4. US told Israel (directly) not to intervene.

    Other then that the Israeli Govenment (Stinky Bibi and Ehud Napoleon Barak) are both equally fixed on one target (no, not Syria. no not MBs) - IRAN.

    Now. regarding the money and weapons: Money was suppose to come from Saudi+Qatar - it hasn't arrived yet. No one will give FSA sophisticated weapons. we saw how it worked extremely good in Afghanistan, Yemen and Iraq.... this weapons find somehow the way to get back to you in the end.

    let put israel and the Golan heights aside and concentrate with the rest of Syria's neighbours: Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon. To Assad's fall will be a direct impact on what happens in Jordan, Iraq and Lebanon. No a stabilizing effect. when Assad says that his missiles can reach Jordan and Saudi Arabia. you start to comprehend the complicated aspects of the Syrian scenario

    Love the fact that you made me confront you on that one :))

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