Tuesday, August 14, 2007

The autumn wind of change in Egypt

It seems that very soon we are going to have very important political changes in Egypt , these expected political changes are predicted to be the big last moves in the inheritance process from the father to the son , of course here I mean father Hosni Mubarak to the Son Gamal Mubarak , this is what expected by all political analysts .

There are two changes that are going to happen very soon , the first change is the Nazif Cabinet  and the second change is the elections of the leadership in the NDP

We will start first with the elections of the NDP ,it is going to happen in from August to September just before the 9th conference of the ruling in November 2007

This is biggest elections in the history of the party and it is the first time they are going to have internal elections for the leadership of the party , the elections are for the positions of the leadership whether in the central level or in the party units level across the country ,to make it easy for you here is the in English the party organizational structure

For sure it is big and huge and we will see a big battle whether between the old and the new guards or between the rivals who fight on the same place

All the wise people in Egypt know that these huge elections are just the last step before the inheritance process completes , where all the men of the new era,the men of GM take their places ,the expected and most anticipated change will be in the central level ,it goes as follows Gamal Mubarak becomes the general secretary instead of Safwat El-Sherif , already Gamal is a member in the general secretary office of the party and the head of the policy committee , this would be the last step before taking the place of his father , the head of the party , it will be very obvious , still I don't how he will cross the other two senior members before him Mofid Shahab and Zechariah Azami

This is the first major expected change with the scenario most people believe that will take place

The second major change will be the anticipated ministerial change ,it started as rumors , and usually people got sick from the news about the close ministerial change that never takes place and even if it does it won't be as they want , it is what the regime wants , but this time it seems that it is more than rumors , the proof at least for me is two indicators

First the official newspapers and journalists close to the party who are all speaking about this ministerial changes with speculations about who is going to stay and who is going to leave , of course the independent newspapers speak more about these speculations with names of the misfortunate ones who are going to leave ,the lucky ones who are going to stay and the very lucky ones who are going to come , the interesting thing that the names of the misfortunate ones this time ,most newspapers agreed upon surprisingly this time , it seemed that all sources are definite those misfortunate ministers are not going to ministers after all "I will speak about these names later in other posts"

The second strong indicator is the Egyptian State decision to run the current minister of culture Farouk Hosni for the general secretary of UNESCO position decision ,the biggest unaccepted surprise of all times, the man survived many ministerial changes ,survived many scandals and criticism that made people believe it was impossible to see him outside the Cabinet  "Again I will speak about him later in another separate post"

As I said this decision means that his chair will be empty and will need to be full ,it can be a short ministerial change as some would say , Hosni Goes ,"X" will come , but no not with all that strong talk ,no there will be a very big change ,more wider to include the prime minister himself

The third big fearful change which many are expecting to take place will be in November 2007 in the 9th conference of the NDP from the 3rd to the 5th

This will be after the result of the general elections of the NDP , with the new faces in their new positions and old faces are out of the game

The big expected change is that Mubarak leaves the leadership of the NDP , now he is the head of the party ,some are expecting that he will leave his position for the reasons of health and old age ,if that happen then the next big move of the inheritance process will take place by promoting Gamal to his place or at least the position of the deputy of the party and this will be the beginning of the presidential Apocalypse ladies and gentlemen

already the current vice-president or head or what ever they call it in the NDP are Youssef Wali for the internal affairs,who is absent for 3 years now , some say that he is in the United States and this may be true , the ex-agriculture minister should leave otherwise he will find himself in jail, and Mustafa Kamal Halim , for the external affairs who was very old ,older than Mubarak ,already this man seemed too old when he was the minister of education when my aunt was in the secondary stage "high school"

the same way they are expected either to leave their position just like Mubarak or one of them will be promoted to the head just on papers , not only them but the other 7 faces in the leadership committees from the very old guards,these faces like Amal Othman and Fathy Sorror  who were and are in the service of the NDP for decades now will have to be loyal for the new heir "already they are" and to his men like Ahmed Ezz and leave without a problem

I believe all those changes in the NDP are made to avoid any constitutional problems if Mubarak passes away just like what had happened in Syria

 Again these are future scenarios and speculations ,fearful black one for sure ,but Still Allah is merciful with this country and like the Arabic wise proverb

You want ,I want and Allah does what "SWT" wants

They plan too much for the future forgetting there are other variables including they do not own the future , including the army ,including the people


  1. I hope all goes well for the sake of the people and of the region :)

  2. @Mr.Baxter , I am sorry I don't know ,I don't see the relation between what is happening in Egypt and what you wrote in your comment ??


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