Wednesday, October 3, 2007

A handbook for overthrowing governments like the Buramese ,lessons to be learnt

BBC World World Affair correspondent Paul Reynolds made a wonderful handbook for overthrowing governments and regimes like the one in Burma ,I found it very interesting because some factors are the key for any successful revolution that wants real change with historical examples from around the globe

Those key factors are the following :

  • Widespread public protests, bringing in many different social and economic groups
  • An opposition leadership with clear ideas around which people can rally
  • The ability to use the media in some form to get a message across
  • A mechanism for undermining the existing regime - whether by internal coup in the case of a military junta, the emergence of reformers, or the simple exhaustion of an existing government leading to its collapse
  • External pressure from key countries able to exert

Some wise people will say hey Zeinobia can we implement this in Egypt !!??

    Well of course , look if you review these factors you will find that they can implemented in Egypt , of course the Egyptian  people seem to me will depend only on the last two factors a miraculous internal coup "despite we do not have a military Junta now " and external pressure
    We do not have yet united opposition leadership ideas , the MB are in Jail plus many won't like their political program especially when it concerns the Presidency and its interaction with the religious leadership , that reminds me with the System in Iran , Ayman Nour's program and ideas were accepted by many but he is in Jail too not to mention that after all those years he got less supporters than before , the rest from opposition from the leftists "despite their late activity in the workers' protests" ,the Nasserists and Wafadists seem to live in the past
    All these political opposition powers due to the regime siege on parties activities and to the fact that they do not address the whole people but instead a specific segments in their talk are not considered a powerful opposition leadership or can form one whether sooner or later and this is not their recent problem , it is our problem in Egypt since the monarchy the political parties always fight each other in order to rule forgetting the people
    The opposition leadership is the one which can make the people go out in widely protests by encouraging them well enough to make them feel the power
    charismatic personalities like Mustafa Kamal or Saad Zaglol or Nasser "I can't deny that he had one hell of Charismatic personality" are no longer there to motivate people
    The widespread protests in different areas of the nation can be achieved if the regime issues stupid economic decision increasing the prices of food in Egypt just like in 1977 and it is expected by some economic exporters to happen sooner if the government don't do something about the prices ,and they won't it because they are dumb enough , every time the President comes and says there will no be no shift in princes , next day the prices go up to the Sky !!
    Egyptians will move only by the power of hunger , the hungers revolution the catastrophic scenario where the 1977 protests will be nothing to compare with and  there will be no red elements to be blamed this time like then.The problem of the hunger revolution that it can be ended peacefully in the beginning with quick economic fixes , a reduce in princes to reduce the people anger
    Yet we can not lose the hope because there were brighter examples in the Egyptian history that tell us that our people can rebel without hunger like in 1919 revolution or in 1923 protests or in 1936 protests , people in all these previous examples demanded political demands whether from complete independence to constitutional demands , all those protests were in time where there were few media options available to Egyptians from radio to newspapers
                We Should not lose hope at all because without hope there will be nothing left to us


              1. Four of the five listed factors fall under noble rights of citizens to exercise except, unfortunately, they depend on existence of some level or another of democratic principles(not necessarily the high level in most of the western countries and North America), but at some level. In the case of Burma all four elements are “practically” unworkable because the army exercise of full control over any form of media communication including the internet (a country of over 40 millions has less than 150,000 connected sites) to display progress of each factor. Egyptian citizens, on the other hands, enjoy relatively more choices in each element. Nonetheless, the regime in Egypt is in control over all important components but may be less dramatically demonstrated like in Burma. Having said that, you will be surprised to hear me saying that; presently or, in the near future, I think the Burmese has better chance in succeeding than Egyptians this time. All due to the 5th stated factor and the most significant one on the list, namely; “external pressure from key countries to exert on the regime”. Let me explain:
                • The sad reality is in Burma over the last 17 years the whole world and particularly the UN cover their eyes, ears and mouth when it comes to tackling the regime’s oppressions to all Burmese citizens except “ economic sanctions and trade boycotting –the one I mentioned in previous comment”
                • I explained before that the regime in Burma mostly survived on drug trading and they still do
                • What is different is in the recent past (including last week) many Oil companies in Asia, Europe and China are making strong presence with the Junta in Burma to sign Oil and Gas deals. (e.g. Indian oil minister, France Total SA, Malaysia’s Petroliam National) (ref. Associated press). In spite of the official boycotting declaration!!!!. It appears that the preliminary results are very promising.
                • If by all indications the time is now to put their oil and gas resources and geographical position into effect then the UN economic sanction and trade boycott must go, otherwise it’s political embarrassment to the so called democracy guardians. How to do this? The Junta must go and time is come for the Burmese to gain some basic rights in order for the country to be commercially exploited for oil and gas.
                In Egypt’s case there is a magic line in the Sahara desert stopping the Oil findings at Libya. I am not a geologist but there is a lot here to be skeptical about !! may be due to the middle east political equation ??. I won’t be surprised if things changed in connection with settling the score with Israel in the region.

              2. Check this site Zeinobia as a back-up to my story above:

                I just notice one of your previous commentators N.American princess mentioned similar logic about all of a sudden interest in Darfur !!? where were they all these years???

              3. @Snoby ,this is the sad fact to depend upon external pressure because you said and as N. American princess hinted that external pressure does not move except for its own interest and you gave a great example Darfur , people were complaining there from a long time , you will be surprised that the Sudan's problems were there even from 50 years ago in the time of the occupation ,but now when they found oil there now they are speaking about Darfur
                still we should not lose hope , about the Egyptian people , well I do not know again may be it is not dark remember in 1919 we lived in a occupation situation , most of the people could not read or write , most of the people did not own radios or any mass communication means still they made the impossible we all know
                by the way a little piece of information Libya's greatest Oil Oasises is already Egyptian , it was following Egypt yet Nasser gave to Libya !! I got the maps and the books we can get it and you will find all the world standing and trying to help the poor people
                Ironically when the French came to Egypt they claimed they wanted to liberate us from the Turkish ,to help us to get our freedom only to secure their way to India ,the scarce resources game

              4. "Egyptians will move only by the power of hunger "
                that's harsh but true.
                under the current economic conditions ppl. see any activity other than securing the next meal as a luxury when this meal is impossible to be obtained then be aware of all the storen rage.
                This does not seem to be egyptian yet human.
                Though a cultural factor might be playing a role here.
                "The ppl understand yet too busy and lack other alternatives."
                that seems a correct conclusion to me.
                Yet the passivity exists on large scale here not only among the poor but the other classes as well.
                not in political activities only i mean
                Charaters that might imerge like Nasser might be the key.
                though ideas and believes (parties) would be the best choice

                realy nice post that you put here.


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