Thursday, November 22, 2007

Can the Pakistani scenario be repeated in Egypt ??

On Friday I watched accidentally on the 2nd channel of the Egyptian National TV the weekly news program "News and Opinions" it has been years since the last time I saw that program , it is one of the oldest News and political program where the week's important international events are discussed deeply , of course from the Egyptian official point of view.This view they discussed the Turkish Foreign policy and its history and the Pakistani issue.

It seems that the Egyptian regime does not like what is happening in Pakistan from a semi revolution against General Masharf , they consider what happened is a result from the American Creative Chaos which says that if the Middle East is thrown into enough turmoil, the bad old authoritarian governments will break down and democratic governments will rise up out of the ashes !! Overall they dislike what is happening in Pakistan from pressure against Masharf who is facing many challenges whether from the increasing radical stream and the fact that the north of Pakistan now is under the Pakistani version of Taliban or from the liberal leaders backed up by the west and America !!!!!!!!!!!!

well surely the Egyptian regime does not like what is happening in Pakistan now , it is its worst nightmares ,people are protesting day and night against it , political leaders are gathering to down the regime and the west is no longer in the regime side. In th brief words the regime got no support what so ever except the security forces from the army and police forces.

The Egyptian regime knows very well it can't depend on the west specifically on the United States because as the Egyptian proverb says "The one who covers with it is naked" , the Americans do not support dead or dying regime that lost all kind of support or power over the people , the military security power is not enough. The American administration proved through history that it leaves those regimes to face the revolutions alone regardless of how those regimes were close allies to the States and I do not need to tell you how America had abandoned the Shah of Iran alone to face the Islamic revolution , they did not even give him refugee after all those years in their service , even after supporting him to restore his throne in the 1950s after the Mosaddeq revolution still when they knew that he was no longer accepted by his people at all ,they did not jeopardize one single moment in an attempt to  help him restore his lost throne on the contrary as far as I know they started to search for new channel to the new rulers , just like in other countries. And that's what happening to Masharf who said by himself that the west abandoned him.

Again I will return to the question can the Pakistani scenario be repeated in Egypt ??

Unfortunately no , because if you compare Egypt and Pakistan , you will find an important element in the equation is missing in Egypt and available in Pakistan and that's the public figure leaders

You do not have Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif in Egypt , the lack of leadership , the people know no one except Mubarak. If any name begins to grow to become an opposition public figure ,the regime will get rid of him as soon as possible and Ayman Nour is the best example , despite Ayman Nour is not as dangerous as Benazir Bhutto or Nawaz Sharif from the experience. And this is from of the Gamal Abd El-Nasser heritage , get rid of those you think can be a threat to you whether in the army or for the public ,especially for the public. Before the revolution of 1952 unfortunately you got political public leaders and figures that can lead people and people had trusted them starting with Mustafa Kamel to Saad Zaglol to Mustafa Pasha El-Nahas to Makram Abid to Ali and Ahmed Maher to El-Nokarashi Pasha yet who do you have now ??

Mubarak is even more sensitive when it comes to competitors or even semi competitors and we all remember what happened to Amr Moses , of course I will not speak about Omar Soliman because Soliman is from the Mubarak's faithful men , he does not think in the rule as far as I get because if he were , he would not stay all that time till now , of course may be he is just repeating the Tunisian scenario after all  Ali Zen Al-Abdeen was the head of the Tunisian intelligence !!

Let's see the prominent figures of Egyptian NOW

  • The most prominent figure of course is the Muslim brotherhood whether you like or not , still their leader or current guide "Mahadi Akhaf" in my opinion is the worst among other previous guides and many Egyptians till now remember his memorable words "Toz fi Misr" -{Screw Egypt} not to mention the controversial program of the MB party .
  • The leftists , they are active just like the MB and they appeared more as expected in the latest workers' protests across the country but they are in the end leftists , communists in the mind of the Egyptian average Joe

seriously I can't find other prominent figures and even those can't overthrow a regime in the same way like in Pakistan

We got a shortage in the political leaders , we do not have them anymore and people will not go to the street without having a leader or someone to gather around  just like Saad Zaglol

Of course I forget to tell you that Pakistan had a democracy when we had dictatorship , regardless of the coups they suffered from still they know the meaning of democracy , the active constitutional life , the prime minister is the ruler in their country

And this is a great huge difference between a country whose constitutional life was ended in 1954 !!!

They want a new prime minister where we want a president

My dear friends it is so difficult now to have what is happening in Pakistan now simply we got Ahmed Shobeir where as they got Imran Khan !!!


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