Monday, March 26, 2012

MB Vs. SCAF : More Than war of statements

After few hours from now the Muslim brotherhood will hold a historical meetings its members and the rest of the nation are more than interesting to know its results as it will not affect the brotherhood and its future but it will affect the the future of democratic transition in Egypt .
In the past 4 days the Muslim brotherhood started a war of statements from the Muslim brotherhood then followed by a statement from Freedom and Justice against SCAF accusing of fighting the Parliament and refusing to get rid from Ganzouri to directly accusing SCAF of rigging the presidential elections in advance and sabotaging the revolution !!!
The Freedom and Justice statement attacking SCAF
Then the Freedom and Justice party showed this alleged document accusing SCAF of creating the fuel crisis currently in Egypt because it exports fuel to Fatah government in West bank in order to weaken Hamas !!! This is from the party that defended SCAF from couple of weeks ago in the NGOs trial fiasco. Of course both SCAF and Fatah in West Bank denied officially the allegations.
SCAF did not sit silent but it issued its 9th communiqué for year 2012 attacking those political powers suspecting its intentions asking to learn from the past’s mistakes in a clear reference of the famous 1954 crisis between Nasser and Muslim brotherhood.
Now the Freedom and Justice newspaper that used to attack protesters all over the country call the people to go in to million man protests. I will not go and translate what both teams are saying.
For months FJP was dying to form the government but legally the parliament can’t withdraw trust from Ganzouri’s government according to the constitutional declaration , SCAF only can do it thus the MB and its political arm are pressing to SCAF to get rid from Ganzouri. Also did not the parliamentary elections which FJ party won take place under SCAF’s rule !?
Anyhow SCAF is insisting on keeping Ganz till the presidential elections.
Some believe that this is a charade between SCAF and MB to divert the attention from the constituent assembly. I do not believe that.
The Muslim brotherhood does not care for democracy as they do not have this process inside the brotherhood itself for real not to mention just quick look to the constituent assembly and you will  know who they think .
The fight is over power as the brotherhood want full power and SCAF will not let this to happen because they also want full power even if it is from the backstage. SCAF is ready to give some power and not full power where as the Muslim brotherhood is hungry for power and it is not ready to leave power because any other political power is bad liberal secular minority.
There is talk about a deal offered by the SCAF yet MB seemed to be refusing : 10 ministries for leaving the army and its budge to the military plus the important ministries of defense , interior and foreign affairs.
The MB wanted to the police academy to accept a group of its young members , oh yes to be graduated as policemen/MB’s members and this shows their plans. The Egyptian army learned bad experience in 1981 after the assassination of Sadat and thus its officers and soldiers are monitored carefully when it comes to religious radicalism. These are important remarks we should put in our consideration.
As SCAF is telling brotherhood to learn from history , most if not all people remembered immediately 1954 and what happened in it when Nasser and the rest of the Free officers turned against both Mohamed Naguib and the Muslim brotherhood “First generation including Siyad Qotub himself”. Naguib was exiled in Egypt , Muslim brotherhood was officially banned and its members started their long time agony with regime’s jails and their fight against it for more than 6 decades till the 25th January revolution.
The 1954 experience was hard and I thought personally that the Muslim brotherhood decided not to repeat its mistakes and not to lose the military rulers since Mubarak’s stepping on February 11,2011. For months the brotherhood abandoned the revolutionary path ignoring all the calls for the million protests or even helped the protesters for fear SCAF would turn against them.
SCAF just wants to wrap up these months and return back to the backstage , they will not escalate because simply they are not mavericks like those boys in 1954. They are old men and regardless of what they seemed they are not wicked like Nasser. Needless to say these old men can disband Freedom and Justice party as well Al Nour Party if they want to as they are religious based parties but they keeping they card till  it reaches to a dead end.
Now it is worth to mention that the Muslim brotherhood is facing its own troubles and bubbles from inside the brotherhood that storming it for the first time since the days of Hassan El Banna.
The defections of the MB’s youth are not stopping and the presidential elections are increasing the crack between the youth, the leadership as well veteran members who believe that the brotherhood should endorse Abdel Moneim Abu El Fatouh like Sheikh Karadawy or Kamal El Helbaway or Mohamed ElBeltagy whom I feel that he will join the defectors of MB very soon.
Last Thursday the youth of MB held a protest outside the MB HQ in Cairo for the first time in history to demand the freedom of choice in presidential elections. “ To support Abu El Fatouh”
I am not speaking from nothing , I am speaking from news within the brotherhood from very trust sources. Already according to a tip I got from two days there were leading figures in brotherhood that they did not know that MB was going to attack SCAF publicly in this way.
Only time tell us shortly if that clash between the Muslim brotherhood and SCAF is true and which team will win in the end , also time will tell us on how
Hopefully Egypt will not pay a price in this clash , enough prices we had to pay so far.
“By the way SCAF is holding a meeting with parties tomorrow at the same time”

Update : 

The Muslim brotherhood members are distributing a statement in Metro stations tonight about the obstacles facing the civilians in the democratic transition where they are attacking SCAF and calling for a new government. They want the people to protest I suppose.
The brotherhood statement scanned by Ahmed Mahdy
The brotherhood statement -2 by Ahmed Mahdy
Here is the open letter sent by veteran Sheikh Youssef Qaradawy from his official Facebook page to the Brotherhood's leadership telling them to let the members have the freedom of choice when it comes to presidential elections and that they should not push a presidential candidate to the race after their promise that they will not for fear it will split votes for Islamist presidential candidates. 
Qaradawy mentioned in his open letter that the brotherhood has fired number of its members for breaking the orders regarding the presidential elections and that now the brotherhood is interested in  entering the race , these members should return back to the brotherhood.
He also hinted out that the brotherhood should endorse those candidates close to its way of thinking in direct reference to Abu El Fatouh.
The meeting of the Brotherhood's guidance office is delayed to noon. The brotherhood now is speaking about three possible presidential candidates : Khairat El Shatar , Mohamed Morsi who is the chairman of the FJP and Saad El Katatani , the speaker of people's assembly !! 


  1. This is epic.

    MB had a more than great chance of unseating SCAF in past Jan25, and were they on the side of protesters back then they would have not been slandered by the protesters either.

    Now they look like lame ducks, who only protest against SCAF when it suits them. In Jan25 there was mounting evidence against SCAF, the violence committed by army. Right now the dust is not in the air anymore, so they must justify these protests somehow.

  2. Okay I just read the HRW report "Egypt: Children on Trial", there is two cases it highlights that definitely needs more media coverage.

    Zeinobia please help to spread the word about these two people:

    1. Islam Harby, 15 years old, arrested on March 23, 2011, and sentenced to seven years, currently detained in Tora maximum-security prison.

    2. Mohammed Ehab Sayyed Morsi, 17 years old, arrested on March 9, 2011, and sentenced to 15 years, currently detained in Tora maximum-security prison.

    These two children are still imprisoned, year after their arrest! Outrageous. Their parents must be poor or otherwise pressured, others in the list was released. How damn sad, even after the revolution.

  3. @Z
    Good analysis, hope Egypt comes out unscathed from the power struggle between the MB & SCAF.

  4. I think it's just a show.


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