Sunday, December 8, 2013

The search For a leader whether #Mandela or King or Even Gandalf is still on in #Egypt

I am really sorry that I do not blog politics as before. I will not deny but sometimes now I feel tired , sad nearly depressed and sick to speak about what is happening in Egypt. It feels heave to write now about a scene that no sane person sees and feels that we are going to have soon a healthy civilian democratic state or we are even on the correct path in the transitional period. You can not stop the feeling that we are returning to 24 January 2011 and that day does not want to seem to end , it is endless and the 25 January had never happened.
Now when I look to what is happening , I see lots of anger , lots of disapproval on what is happening from the current government. That anger as well rejection are among the same youth class that led the original 28 January and it still has no leader to organize it in order to become a real force on the ground.
The media attacks those revolutionary youth day and night spreading lies about them and somehow it pays off as the people , older generations are dying to the return of the old days regardless of the corruption , poverty and decay of the Egyptian State in the past decades. The older generations are not looking for a leader but rather they are looking forward to the return of the Just dictator , the myth we have been living in Egypt for decades in order to justify police state.
The death of Mandela stroke a nerve , it is not about anti-apartheid  reconciliation hero rather it is about the realization that we need a true leading civilian figure to promote democracy in the lands of mighty pharaohs and kings.
Many people in Egypt thought that the man who can be their leader is Mohamed ElBaradei but now it is clear for many also that he abandoned the cause while he was much needed.
ElBaradei is going to teach at some Law school next Fall in the States. This news made many Egyptians feel lost after all the Egyptian Gandalf as one of my friends calls him has left us to Vienna and there is no hope for his return.
His silence on twitter for some time and his return only to mourn Nelson Mandela “not Ahmed Fouad Negm” made many people angry. His opponents of course used it as opportunity to prove how “Un-Egyptian” he was , of course those opponents used to attack Negm day and night too.
Today he tweeted about Hepatitis C treatment unfair price.A side note : HCV is a disaster in Egypt by all measures  
Personally I believe Mohamed ElBaradei was betrayed by the liberal political elite including his own political elite of his party , the Constitution. Only very few members are still keeping up the same principles this man believed in like for instance Khaled Dawood but the majority does not stop from shocking me more and more like FM Nabil Al Araby or minister Ahmed Borai. “The later wants General El Sisi to run for presidency”
ElBaradei has always maintained that he is not the awaited Messiah and he wants the people , the youth to act. It is true that people should not wait for the Messiah but history and reality say that every political or social or economic revolutionary movement seeking for change is led by someone who inspires people and so on.
As I said it before leaderless and unorganized revolutions and uprisings are cursed and we are witnessing that curse in front of our eyes.
The MB reached to a deal first since February 2011 with SCAF as well became Egypt’s most powerful groups despite their ideas because they were organized unlike the revolutionaries with their different political affiliations. The revolutionary political current in Egypt needs to have strong united organization to represent it in front of the society before any other other political force or institution in Egypt.
“Where is the alternative !?” is the same question I am confronted with when I tell the people that they do not have to choose between the military or the Islamists. They can not see the alternative as long as it is not united or organized or led by a figure that can inspire them and give them hope for real.
And yes we are looking for some Mandela or Martin Luther King JR or even Gandalf the grey to save us in the right moment before evil wins , after all the Youth of winter 2011 are just like the hobbits that saved their shire .. yet they are on the verge of losing it again.
I am sorry for being repetitive but I felt that I have to say this .


  1. Perhaps the state whose upheavals most resembles Egypt's course since 2013 is Thailand. A coup occurred in Thailand in 2006 deposing Thaksin Shinawatra's government, yet now, the coup has largely been defeated, and its consequences slowly being erased. Yingluck Shinawatra's Pheu Thai party decisively prevailed in recent elections, winning more than half of the parliamentary seats.

    How did this happen? The red shirts employed dual tracks of focusing on both revolutionary action and electoral politics. As the oligarchic, anti-democratic military government predictably overreached, massacred civilians, postponed elections/rigged elections, its popularity plummeted. The powerful political machine built by the Shinawatras reclaimed power.

    They did this by tapping into the votes of the rural masses, as well as garnering the support of the urban power in many areas. Their foes quite literally could not conceive of a movement actually focusing on anything outside the de facto nobility and thus were caught off-guard.

    A somewhat similar pattern has also occurred in parts of South America.

    Egyptian revolutionaries and democrats need to pursue dual tracks as well. They need to shatter the attempt to enable the deep state to rule by proxy through the defense and interior ministries, as currently the constitution is attempting to establish.

  2. did elbaradei abandon egypt, or did egypt abandon him?

  3. The Thai coup government was actually stupid enough to claim that the protestors it killed were either "terrorists" or killed by some sort of unspecified antigovernment "terrorists." The truth is that, terrorists indeed killed the Thai protestors, but they were state terrorists acting on behalf of a non-democratic government.

    Now, some of these murderers are being hunted and arrested by those non-terrorists they vilified.

    Whoever leads the Egyptian revolutionary movement, if such a leader arises, needs not to be a chameleon-like person who abandons principles all the time. April 6 seems more rational and consistent than Tamarod.

  4. I'd be hard pressed to disagree that Egypt is likely to be ruled by a Mubarak replacement only more brutal and willing to kill. That said I can't really blame el-Baradei. He'd probably have been arrested if he stayed behind and I don't suppose he can really be faulted for preferring life in Vienna to rotting in a cell.

  5. I dont believe the military is unchanged by the events of the last 2 years. They can, t exercise power the way they did, not that they might not try.
    Time is on the side of the democrats like El Baradei, thats we he is right to wait and not take premature risks.
    There is a tightening up of the media but the outside world views Egypt differently. Remember whenit was difficult to convince some countries that Mubarak was a dictator. I don, t think the military can afford to go back on its commitment to transfer to civilian government. They don, t have that much leeway economically and have to be careful the US does not sanction them.


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