Saturday, May 17, 2014

About Libya, Hiftar , ElSisi and that Jazz in Benghazi

I wanted to write this before but I can not delay it anymore after what happened today in Benghazi.
In case you do know since early Friday there have strong clashes between Libyan militias in Benghazi erupted madly. It turns out that retired General Khalifa Hiftar is back to the scene and his militia launched air strike and attack against Islamist militias’ positions in the city of Benghazi. It is considered the biggest military action witnessed in the city since the Libyan revolution’s battles. Hiftar’s troops claimed that they were liberating Benghazi from Islamist militias’ control.
Hiftar who led unsuccessful invasion against Chad in the 1980s returned back to the scene from couple of months when he tried to lead a coup against the Islamist government. Searching back online , you will find his name popped up right after the start of the Libyan revolution as the CIA’s man that could stand against Qaddafi. May be the US is trying to send him back again to play a role against the Islamist militias.
Now there are strong rumors spreading like fire among Libya social media accounts whether on Twitter and Facebook accusing Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and the Egyptian army of supporting Hiftar to the level of supplying him with Jet fighters and pilots !!!!
The Libyan Islamists as well the supporters of the militias in Libya launched this hashtag today calling Khefter as “#The_Pimp’s_Tail” in reference of course to the infamous hashtag “Elect_The Pimp”. They also launched the “#Benghazi_Libya_Battle” also attacking the former Libyan General as well El-Sisi and his Emirati allies. Needless to say the Pro-Muslim Brotherhood supporters from Egypt and Arab world are participating in these two hashtags all day long.
Dangerous allegations and despite it spread like fire in the past hours in the social media , we did not hear any comment about it from the Egyptian armed forces. Of course people are busy with presidential elections and campaigns but you can not ignore such dangerous allegation.
There is no smoke without fire I am afraid.
For weeks now Libya has been mentioned frequently whether directly or indirectly in the talk of presidential candidate to be our president Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. It is not a big surprise to see some drawing conclusions.
In his statements published by Fox News channel , he warned of the Jihadists camps in Libya and amazingly expressed that the NATO should have deployed troops in Libya and “That history will judge them for that !!”
I do not understand how El-Sisi calls for having Western military bases in Libya when those bases can turn against us one day. I thought that Libya was part of our strategic national security in Egypt. Already this contradicts directly what his Pro-Media is telling  us day and night in Egypt that evil West and NATO brought down Libya to destroy Egypt
Then later he repeated statements in latest interviews that the Egyptian armed forces were ready to aid any Arab country in its war against terrorism. Then came his big blunder that created a crisis with Algeria when he said that the Egyptian armed forces could reach to Algeria within 3 days in order to protect Egypt’s National security.
Algerians became angry of course and El-Sisi campaign issued an explanation and then the man to be our president met the Algerian ambassador in Egypt. Of course since day one I understood that he did not mean Algeria but rather meant storming Libya.
At the same time Pro-Military Pro-Police state media is spreading day and night myths that there is the so-called “Egyptian Free army” made by thousands of fighters returning back from Syria “as if the war in Syria is over” and funded by Qatar “ more than $ 30 billion”. In nutshell they say that there is an army of Jihadist that will storm Egypt soon.
When I speak about the Pro-Military/Pro-Police state media in Egypt I do not mean only TV hosts like Ahmed Moussa or Mostafa Bakry but I mean also retired generals turned in to Strategic analysts.
Personally I am worried that Libya would be our 21st century Yemen war. I am worried that the Egyptian army would be dragged in to a war when the war on terrorism in Egypt has not been won.
I am worried that opening a front in Libya will turn in to Yemen war in much worse way. With all the cons of Nasser in 1960s , Egypt did not suffer economically or socially like now.
Needless to speak any police/Military state that depends on fear for its existence , needs enemies and wars to survive.
Also I would like like to hint out that the United States and its allies could not get rid from Taliban in Afghanistan and Libya has no more organized army but rather militias trained very well on street fights.
It is not a secret that weapons and heavy arms invaded Egypt through the Western borders with Libya. It is not a secret either that there are Islamist militias that feel sympathy to the Muslim Brotherhood or that the current government in Libya is an Islamist one. Our expats and our drivers from time to time are abducted by extremist militias like what happened to our diplomats and other Arab diplomats.
Yet you do not solve this through operations in other countries aka invasion or call foreign countries to have military bases in Libya. I think You solve them with covert operations and politics. Covert operations are done by all strong countries to save the national security and FYI we had our covert operations in Libya during the time of Qaddafi without the knowledge of that mad bastard.
When I speak politics , I may look naïve but if having a real democracy in Egypt that can affect positively in Libya . People themselves will stand against the crazy militias when they see a successful peaceful democratic transition. Radicalism can be conquered if you present a true democracy of moderation , of course this is much hard for some and will take time but this is a strategic solution. I know I look naïve and romantic. 
Find political allies in Libya and turn to win them, adopt mutual projects as soon as possible. We got the Ben Ali tribe branch in Egypt , that famous North African tribe can play a role here. 
Speaking constitutionally I think the Egyptian president can not declare war or send officially army forces outside the country without the National security council’s approval as well the approval of parliament.
I fear on our army as well I fear on both Egyptian and Libyan people. I fear that if the Egyptian army intervenes in Libya , it will be like Yemen war which was one of our main reasons of our defeat in 1967 “Six days war” regardless of what the Nasserites and Pro-Military would say in Egypt.
We should learn for our mistakes. We should act wisely and let the brain speak.I care for blood and it is enough the blood that has been spelled in Egypt as well Libya in the past 3 years.
Anyhow let’s pray for the best whether in Egypt and Libya.


  1. By refusing to deploy western forces to help stabilize Libya after the North Atlantic Treaty Organization overthrew longstanding dictator Muammar Qaddafi in late 2011, he said, the U.S. and other NATO members had created a political vacuum that had left Libya at the mercy of “extremists, assassins, and murderers.” “History will judge you severely,” he declared.
    انتي خليتي رفضه لنشر قوات الي طلبه نشر قوات .... حرام بجد ..المشكله انك بتشتمي الاعلام المزيف ..هي دي اخلاق العالم الاول الي انتي بتتكلمي بلغته ..

    1. Read the phrase again carefully please

    2. اسف ..لازم اعترف بخطئي ..اسف تاني عل الاهانه ..بس من السياق العام والي شوفته من افكار السيسي ..استحاله يطلب تدخل هو نفسه كان معارضه عشان تصلح الانهيار الي عمله التدخل الاول ..واستحاله المؤسسه العسكريه المصريه تقبل بتدخل من النوع ده ..وعامه لازم تعرفي ان الاعلام الغربي هو الاستاذ في التزييف ..واعلامنا لسه مجرد تلميذ ك ;)

  2. Zeinobia, do you doubt the abilities of our Army? I should say El Sisi should flex some muscles with an easy trip next door in Libya. He should liberate and unite the Libyan people with the great invincible Egyptian army.
    Let's all chant: War...war..war...war...

    Oh, how do you write that i in "naïve"?

  3. It seem that, It is easy for El Sisi,s military to shed Muslims Blood and Waste Egypt,s Money.
    Our January 25th 2011 Social Revolution IS for: "Bread, Freedom, and Social Justice"..

    Again El Sisi Is Not Nasser.

  4. May 15th Should Be a Good Reminder to El Sisi,s Military that Egypt and Muslim and Arab ENYMY is on Our Western Border NOT in our east border
    Our military should be occupied with Liberation of Our Holy Land.

  5. The economical impact should be the least of our concerns if the rumors turn out to be true. The real concerns is the inevitable blow back from these militias. You got superpowers like US that do not have total control over their borders, if you add to the Egyptian incompetence, the presence of Libyan tribes on the borders, you get a very good picture of how secure our borders are.

    As you stated, the Libyan based terrorists already sympathize with Egypt's. By getting involved in Libya, you are giving them even more reasons and they will definitely try to bring the war to Egypt.

    These bastards keep repeating "Egyptian Free Army" till it becomes a reality, if you do not support your country and stand by Sisi when that happens, you will be deemed an enemy of the state.

    Sisi seems to burrowing a page from every asshole that ever existed, in this case, I see Bush aswell as Nasser.

    1. Nasser freed and build your country.

    2. Nasser is nothing short of a fascist lunatic dictator. He and the 3 assholes who followed him are responsible for the rotten state we live in now. Each one of them could have turned Egypt into a functional modern democratic state, but they did exactly the opposite and held onto power.

      "He did this and did that so that makes it all ok" is a product of a slave mentality and inferiority complex.

      It's HIS JOB to fix the country, he volunteered, no one forced him. It's A JOB. You are an Egyptian citizen, not a guest or a refugee in this country, you own it, whatever the president or any government employee does is NOT A CHARITY, it's a duty. They are judged by the crimes they commit and the accomplishment they should have achieved but have not.

      The only president who is worthy of my respect is Mohammed Naguib. The rest of presidents are fascist dictators who betrayed this country and anyone who praises them is like a slave who puts up with his master's abuse in return of a hot plate and place to sleep.

    3. Nasser did not forced millions to be in his funeral....
      How many will be in yours ?

    4. There are worse fascists and war criminals (e.g., Hirohito, Augusto Pinochet, ..etc) who had even larger funerals. You are very simple-minded.

  6. Thanks for sharing,, yes I'm aware of the situation in Libya, and I agree with the writer's opinion that covert operations and diplomacy is the way to go to protect our national security, generally speaking.. but the situation in Libya - at this particular conjunction - is more complex: Egyptian expats are being kidnapped over there, the situation is very fluid with a huge amount of weapons in circulation and the absolute absence of anything resembling authority, and the very radical ideology is confronting us on the inside.. all this, in my opinion, calls for more extreme measures: I agree with the army's approach to conduct aerial strikes against the Radicalist bases, even alongside Khalife Hiftar (we need a Libyan native to be on the front otherwise we could get accused of assaulting a sovereign country..

    As for Sisi's comments regarding the NATO, they don't bother me that much as they include a direct blame to them, and speaks about another interesting point the writer raised which is her fear of repeating our mistakes of the past in Yemen but in Libya this time around, and that's a legitimate concern, but I think we are aware of it, that's why it's not being brought up much in the news- not officially that is.

  7. From my point of view as someone horrified by the daily assasinations of people associated with the Gadaffi era, although potentially blameless individually, Haftar is their only protector, and therefore I support him as a protector of the millions of people disenfranchised by Libya's poltical isolation law, along with its "approved candidate lists" which make its elections non representative to put it mildly, My opinion is that Clinton will support him so she is innoculated from her destruction of Libya in the run up to the 2016 election, it will be significant how the US army, state department, Obama and the CIA NSA come down on this. Do they want a secure Africa, or a destabilized Africa, and when do they want each phase, and what are the different camps in the NATO alliance about the fate and control of Africa and the Middle East, with Libya having huge implications for both. I hope the abused in Libya find a protector in Haftar, but the whole situation has forces underneath we cannot determine, and all will likely be exploited in the geo politics game, but for me this is the first ray of hope since the murder of Gadaffi.

  8. By following Mao's dictum that "power flows from the barrel of a gun," the Libyan combatants are deliberately following a course to burn the country to the ground. We have seen how in so many places a supposed military solution did not bring peace, security, unity, or order, but instead brought decades of endless bloodshed, genocide, and crimes against humanity.

    Make no mistake, if Libya enters a civil war, the country will be thrust into a dark age. It will not be "saved" by some fascistic terrorist with a messiah complex. Force and violence cannot drive out Libya's problems. In modern times, that strategy has been tried in Iraq, Syria, and much of Africa. Take a look at how long the Congo has been embroiled in fratricidal warfare, or Afghanistan. That is what awaits Libya if power keeps flowing from the barrel of guns rather than from a more rational source.

    More polarization, war crimes, hatreds, and divisions will appear if the fighting keeps up. It will not lead to peace, security, or unity.

    If foreign forces are sent in, there has to be a credible plan and strategy. It can't be some idiotic scheme to help bring one warlord to power so he can reward his sponsors with oil . The intervention would need to actually be a realistic plan to solve the problems.

    1. Haftar's sponsors do not care about peace or prosperity in Libya, they are primarily concerned with eliminating extreme militias and controlling oil fields. Diving Libya into smaller weaker and manageable chunks is also a desirable side effect.


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