Thursday, June 9, 2016

Can Egypt become a democracy of 91 Million People !?

On Sunday, Egypt's population hit 91 million officially according to the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. Since reading that news, I have been thinking and asking myself one single question :

Can Egypt become a democracy of 91 million people ?
okay a little modification here :  Can Egypt become a democracy with a population of 91 million in very tough economic conditions as well in a very turbulent region like the Middle East with growing radicalism and regional powers that actually fight any Arab democratic attempt !?
Tough question ,is not it !?

Tahrir square 2012 
When you think about it , only a divine miracle can enable Egypt to have a smooth , complete and real democratic civilian transition considering all the problems we have from huge population with lots of social diseases, deep rotten corrupted regime made of lawyers or rather competitive powers and apparatuses, extremely bad economy and polarized political powers in troubled region where regional regimes do not want you to have any kind of democracy in the first place for fear that virus can transfer to their countries.

It seems impossible at the first glance.
Still a second glance , huge population and poverty as well trouble regions can not stop democratic transition or democracy.
We got India, the biggest democracy in the world with all extremely huge population "over 1.2 billion people" with dozens of religions and ethnicity as well extreme poverty in addition to wars , extremism..etc.
This is India.
Maybe , you will think that the democracy in India has been already established but still we are speaking about a democracy that saw lots and lots of challenges since 1950 and the declaration of the Republic there.
We got also Brazil which is currently the world fifth-largest country by area and population. Despite all the woes Brazil is having now with that on-going drama following the ouster of Dilma Rousseff , Brazil is an example of a transition from military rule since 1985 till now.
Nevertheless , I am realistic as pessimistic enough to know that each country and region got its own circumstances as well other factors
Sometimes I feel it is going to be a hard ride for Egypt to start a true democratic transition in the first place but then I remember India and Brazil.
What do you think !? Do you think that Egypt has got a chance with 91 million people in the Middle East to become a democracy !?


  1. Democracy is highly unlikely in Egypt because"
    - There is a section in Egypt that believes in the army and that the army men should be in-charge of the country thus the majority were satisfied with the ousting of the democratically elected president just because they were assured that an army personnel will take charge
    - Another section is the Coptic Christians that are directed by their religious Clergy to vote for whoever the Church wants thus never expect that section to be part of a free-will democratic process
    - Another section is the Salafists, if such a term exists, who believe that democracy is against the principals of the religion itself

    The higher percentage of the community do not believe in the process and consider it a western style of living and would rather have a dictator as a leader as opposed to a democratically elected president or party thus it will probably never happen

    1. But do not forget all those sectors or rather that high percentage of the community suffer from that dictatorship and injustice , not to mention they were not give the opportunity to live under democracy.
      The Salafists will be with whoever rule Egypt even if he is martian from the outer space because they believe that they should not oppose the ruler coz God chose him , this is a core belief for real.
      The Church .. well I think in the 70 years the Coptic Christians headed to the the Church in the same way the Upper Egyptians look to their clans and tribes as there is no real citizenship or justice i the country unlike pre-1952 days.
      The community had not a real chance to experience democracy from a long time , this is what I believe.

  2. You said it all"only a divine miracle can enable Egypt...." and it isn't time for divine intervention any more....Egypt's trouble are too many to mention from Sufism, Wahhabism, declining education, population explosion, corruption and deteriorating infrastructure to mention few. Yesterday while reading an article in an Egyptian paper about population explosion being more harmful than terrorism, the comments surprised me as in "every baby come with its bounty, or it the will of Allah" and so forth.....keep your hopes high but it ain't happening in our life time. Take for example Turkey that was a symbol of a secular country for the last 75 years & see what is happening now, it is about to become a theocracy. Are there any chances that Egypt would turn into a modern secular state without reverting back to where it was 100 years ago? I have my doubts but my hopes also.

    1. Same thing in India which got nearly the same social diseases and yet they found a miracle since 1950 somehow.
      By the way , Turkey is not the best example because as secular nation it suffered from a bloody military rule which got its own cons. We are looking the successful Turkey of the past two decades then we got that freak show happening there "The One man show of the East"

  3. I’m pessimistic but I hope for a better future for Egypt.

    Right now the poverty, the lack of education, increase of human rights violations is backing Egypt up.

    The regime propaganda is also very strong, in and inside Egypt. The Al- Sisi cult of personality has a great appeal also among foreigners living in Egypt, that was surprising for me. The result is seeing in the leader the personification of the State itself. So, if you love your country, you must love your leader. This distorted patriotism is one of the biggest obstacle against Democracy. How someone dare to speak against the leader if the leader and the State is the same thing? Without forgetting about arrests and indiscriminate repression.

    1. He has an appeal because of the fear of terrorism , the war of terrorism my dear is the key.

  4. The real question is: Why would Egypt become a democracy?
    Has anyone established that democracy is the most suitable system for Egypt?

    1. we simply we have tried dictatorship and police state for over 70 years and I think the results are evidence on their failure , their outcome is a disaster as we see now.

  5. No only Egypt can, Egypt should bring a democracy example to other countries of Middle East. It is unlikely if people don't implicate in public life, if an egyption feeling of union makes their differences get together, there's a lot of "if" but it worth very much.

    Ramadam karim!

  6. If Egypt could get a few constitutional lawyers who became household names, I would be much more confident. International diplomats such as Mohammed Baradai are not really enough. Like it or not, lawyers have been important in many constitutional democracies.

  7. Just comparing the present condition of Tunisia with that of Egypt shows the superiority of transitioning to a democratic system over regressing to a refurbished police state.

    Military fascism is terrible at dealing with terrorism, and also commits much state terrorism in the process.

    A military dictatorship that exists to serve foreign aristocracies cannot, due to its innate characteristics, be patriotic.


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