From January 25 to Iran: What Middle Eastern Regimes Still Haven’t Learned Since 2011

This is the annual post marking the January 25 Revolution of 2011 in Egypt, published on January 28—the true day of the Revolution.

Although it may seem like a distant memory, it has rarely felt closer. Many—if not all—of the causes and conditions that led to that moment, which reshaped the Middle East (if not the world), still exist today, in one form or another, across almost every country in the region—not just in Egypt.

I am writing this post while Iran stands on the brink of war, following mass protests that were hijacked by the U.S. and the Israeli regime and brutally cracked down on by the Iranian regime. The result has been a tragedy: thousands killed, thousands more detained, and millions waiting in fear, uncertain about what the future holds.

I cannot ignore what is happening in Iran, as we remember the January 2011 Revolution—the peak moment that truly launched the Arab Spring, with all due respect to the Tunisian Revolution. For context, Tunisians themselves protested earlier this month against their government and President Kais Saied, who has turned out to be little more than a Temu-version strongman.

After the 12-day war in the summer of 2025, I thought the Iranian regime might finally read the writing on the wall and grant greater freedoms to its people, especially after Iranians stood firm during the Israeli–U.S. war.

Once again, the Iranian people proved—like people everywhere—that they are the first and true line of defense, resilient despite years of repression and crushing economic sanctions. For a brief moment, videos from Iran suggested a slight opening: more women appeared unveiled in public. Yet economic hardship deepened, demanding urgent reform.

These hardships were driven not only by Western sanctions but also by corruption, the cost of Iran’s regional ambitions, and the aftermath of the 12-day war. By December, Iranians began peaceful protests against the economic crisis. Within weeks, however, U.S. and Israeli current and former officials openly spoke about Mossad involvement in “protecting” protesters.

Soon after, exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi called on Iranians to seize cities, claiming thousands of security officers had defected. Elon Musk offered free Starlink internet access—how the devices entered Iran remains unclear.

The doors of hell were opened. Protests turned deadly, and the familiar specter of “third parties”—so well known to Egyptians from 2011–2013—reemerged. The regime blamed Mossad-backed separatists; the opposition accused regime thugs.

 

Like many Middle Eastern regimes before it, and without learning from Egypt’s experience, the Iranian regime cut telecommunications and internet access for days. When connectivity slowly returned, videos showed what appeared to be a massacre lasting nearly 48 hours. Officials spoke of thousands killed.

There is still no verified death toll or fully independent source, but images from morgues point to a mass killing—grimly reminiscent of those horrific days and nights in Cairo.

Personally, and as an outside observer, I believe the protests were legitimate but turned into carnage thanks to the Iranian regime and Israel, as a mix of regime thugs and some militant parties, whether Kurdish separatists or infamous MEK, infiltrated the protests.

The militant cult claimed that they lost over 100 members this week, which is quite interesting since MEK is extremely hated and rejected even by the Iranian opposition because of their role in the Iraqi-Iranian Gulf war”

The Western Mainstream media is like rewinding the same textbook of the Iraqi invasion, so the young generations would miss a moment.

Now the rest is history, and Trump, despite his ongoing crackdown against democracy and in the United States, is supporting the protesters in Iran, or rather, he is using the protesters to strip Iran of any military power to stand against Israel, if you want the truth and to take its oil just like Venezuela.

He is sending a “beautiful armada”, as the Iranian regime says that the doors of hell will be opened in the Middle East. Turkey, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar are trying to stop the escalation, whereas Israel is praying for a strike.

More countries are declaring that they won’t let their skies to be used against Iran.

What started as legitimate demands of the Iranian people seem to be turning into another US regime change, and we know how US regime changes go in the Mideast, regardless of how much you hear “it is different” and “we learned from the mistakes”

In a way, it seems a dead end for the Iranians in Iran, considering the current options they have, except that I still believe that there was a light in Pandora’s box, and that light was hope.

You might think this is an Iran post rather than a #Jan25 one—but it is, in fact, a #Jan25 Arab Spring post.

Iranian officials now say they “understand” the demands of the protesters, much like Tunisian dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali once did. He delivered that speech too late—and was ousted within hours.

Like many Arab regimes before them, Iranian officials claim they understand their people. 

In reality, they either understand nothing—or they understand only when it is already too late. In the Middle East, people are still treated not as citizens, but as subjects in need of guidance.

Yet the Iranian regime still has time for a real “we understood you” moment—before U.S. strikes push the country into catastrophe. There is still room for meaningful political and economic reform. Iran could follow a Brazilian-style democratic transition.

In fact, I believe the Brazilian model is the best-case scenario for large regional powers like Iran and Egypt—countries of more than 80 million people in a volatile region like the Middle East. Such reforms would strengthen Iran’s independence and protect its people, wealth, and military capacity.

This will not happen overnight. It may take years, even decades—but Brazil stands as proof that it is possible.

The Iranian regime may threaten the United States and Israel, but what it should truly fear is the anger of its own people—who have suffered enough and do not deserve to endure another two decades like those imposed on Iraqis and Syrians.

Hardliners and conservatives must step aside and allow reformists within the system to pursue genuine political, economic, and social reforms—expanding rights and freedoms to extend the life of the Iranian republic itself.

The West claims it sanctions Iran in the name of human rights. We know better. Western powers have shown little concern for human rights in the Middle East—except when it comes to Israel—and care far more about oil and security interests. If so, let Iran prove them wrong through reform.

This is not a Hail Mary to save the Islamic Republic of Iran; it is an effort to save Iran itself.

I know my words will not change reality.

But they still must be said. Reform from within Middle Eastern regimes—real governance, not repression—is no longer optional. It is a necessity if the region is to withstand the threats imposed by Donald Trump and his administration.

I hope Middle Eastern officials, from Tehran to every Arab capital, finally learn to understand and listen to their people—for real instead of listening to Donald Trump.