Wednesday, December 21, 2011

#Tahrir : Future scenarios “ The bad ones”

We must predict and plan  for the future , only fools in this age who do not plan and have scenarios for the future especially when we speak about  country in the size and location of Egypt. Our youth are good in mentioning examples and scenarios from abroad specifically 1954 and Romania but forgetting to create scenarios based on our situation in 2011 when it comes to internal and external circumstances.

These are the scenarios if the clashes between the security forces “the army” and the protesters continue and there is no peaceful solution especially we are coming to close to January 25th , 2012 with angry feelings from everybody.

The main scenario on the table if there is no  peaceful solution for the crisis we have : An internal coupe in the Egyptian army

There is no doubt that there are many officers and soldiers who do not approve what happened exactly in the centralized zone of Cairo and some of them will think in that scenario.

When we speak about coup , there are also scenarios for it as follows :

  • A young officer or middle rank officer who believes in democracy truly and will hand over power in three months or even more pulling a Swar Al Dahab scenario. “A divine miracle”
  • A revolutionary young officer or middle rank officer who claims to believe in democracy will take over the rule then pull another Nasser scenario and God knows that we are paying that price of that scenario up till now.
  • There is a scary scenario the army would be divided and have a fight because of the coup as we are not speaking about something like 1952 where a small group who would have been executed for grand treason if late king Farouk had ordered the rest of the army to end them.
  • Now speaking about Nasser and 1952 I must hint out there is huge possibility that is this coup will be supported by the States just like in 1952 especially if the 21st century Nasser has a charisma. “No one on the scene now got any charisma from any kind in Egypt”
  • There is that sinister scenario in my mind that actually we could be witnessing a shift in the players which means all what see is a preparation for Mr. X or that officer X. That scenario makes me shiver because it proves to me that we are pawns in the game of nations for real especially when I think about all the blood we are paying on a daily matter !!

Of course many people wish for it to happen right now like for instance veteran leftist national MP Abu El Ezz El Hariri who expressed his wish for this to happen indirectly to happen on TV from couple of days ago.

There is also another scenario and it is also dark if the clashes continue and if people begin in suing SCAF in front of international courts and the calls of boycotting arms to the Egyptian army …etc. Of course knowing the Egyptian people for real , any foreign intervention from these kinds will be met with huge opposition from the Egyptian people especially the Egyptians , my people got this huge charge of anger. You must know that when you go internationally , you will play according to the interests of international powers not the good intentions and you got Syria and Libya as the best examples as well history. It is dangerous route and we will pay something in return because this is Egypt.

You must know we are speaking about Egypt , one of the oldest nations in the World that knew the principle of the State and head of state. Since the Dawn of history religion and army are from the holy untouchables from this nation , most of the Egyptian rulers through out history since 7,000 BC had military background. In ancient Egypt the high priest would manage to take the rule in troubled time when the pharaoh dies and got no heir or got a weak. The state , religion and army are from components of this nation , this is why the majority is very careful and is worried. 

I am not that worried about Islamists take over that much because they are taking it through democratic elections whether we like it or not.

Nobody said it will be an easy ride but when I look to the past months , when I revise positions and stands taken by many politicians and revolutionaries before SCAF, I know that these youth should not have killed. We do not plan , we only react and do not accept criticism and everybody has its own agenda over the country’s best interest whether SCAF or different political powers whether right to left.

Strangely nobody speaks about 1919 revolution and its success, may be because political powers from Islamists , Leftists and Nasserite Nationalists hate it despite its success of achieving semi-independent , a parliament and elected government not to mention a constitution we wish to have one like it now in 2011 !! There is a particular one reason why the 1919 is more successful so far than our 2011 revolution : It had a leadership

I am not speaking about Saad Pasha but I am speaking about the first and true delegation aka The Wafd which was formed from men representing all Egypt whether the Arabs as Hamd Pasha El Bassel from Fayoum or Mohamed Pasha Mahmoud from Asuit “Upper Egypt”. {Oh yes unlike the popular Myth launched in the media after the Mohamed Mahmoud clashes Mohamed Mahmoud was not the minister of interior who cracked down the 1919 revolution because simply he was among the delegation that was sent to exile in 1918-1919 , he became minister of interior in later time !!}

We do not have a real united leadership representing Egyptians because simply on February 12th ,2011 everybody refuses the other and this is why we failed to stand against SCAF all that time and I am afraid despite that there is huge polarization even among in the one family.

Historically speaking I feel we are not reliving the 1954 as much we are living the fight over power between Aybak and Aktai , sometimes I feel that we are living the Mohamed Ali era once , Mohamed Ali was assigned by the patriotic leaders led by Omar Makram ironically in early 19th century in Egypt. When Mohamed Ali took over the rule , he got rid from his rivals and sent the leaders like Makram to exile !! I think I am losing my mind !!

Anyhow back to the scenarios , may be I will should discuss the peaceful scenarios next time. One thing for sure the scenario will happen is known only by God now , I do not care about the scenarios put by humans .

May God protect Egypt and its children , May they keep them united. May God bless the souls of our martyrs and protect this nation.

16 comments:

  1. I’m glad someone got Mohamed Mahmoud right, he was amongst those who through demonstrations, strikes, non-cooperation, hard negotiations bludgeoned the British to accept the 1936 treaty. SCAF are analogous to the 24 mameluke amirs alf's, whose leader the sultan; ruled Egypt for 250 years. SCAF have all their bad habits and none of their good habits like winning wars on a regular basis, having political savvy and presiding over a period of Egyptian prosperity which until today has not been repeated.

    Whatever one thinks of Mohamed Aly he did clear the ground for a civilian government that was in power from 1848 – 1952.

    An internal coup d’etat only works when the army is small like in 1952, but not with an army the size of Egypt’s today. There would have to be severe discontent for the regular army to revolt, and it would be a fight to the finish between them and the hard core, loyalist Republican Guard, and Special Forces units, of about 45,000 men, who are those confronting the demonstrations today. It would be relatively short, and very bloody.

    The only other alternative is for a general revolt of the populace in general where through a series of strikes, non-cooperation, clashes on a gigantic scale, that the army may very well crumble, which is not a great idea, frankly the general chaos that would result could well turn Egypt into a mega-Somalia.

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  2. Knight of Cordoba12/22/2011 01:58:00 AM

    I agree that the scenarios you've mentioned is logic , but i want to add a simpler yet quite frightening scenario ... the army will stand united against the people , not becuz they approve SCAF but 1.Mubarak along 30 years have done nothing more carefully than rearranging leadership inside egyptian army ,fragmenting the chain of command and also eliminating any charismatic characters and as you can see we have SCAF with not even single charismatic or loved officer , and this is no coincidence. 2.They media is working hard to disfigure the revolution and its youth and at least toward the end you can get an army or part of it "MP" that can fire at egyptian citizens. Your idea of Coup is acceptable but in times of war like in the 50s were grave situations would allow great characters to rise and soldiers and low ranks to admire mid and hi ranked officers and so follow them also would give a chance for many officers to get together , discuss , have a thought but not in the current army that has been "domesticated".you may have angry officers who don't approve SCAF , but it's SO difficult for them to arrange something so big like a coup in an army that is wide spread, huge , fragmented,lead by less popular officers who are payed well and so loyal to SCAF. The point is i think Confrontation is inevitable , it's how costly or say "bloody" it will. SCAF will NOT handle the power or authority to people , it's something its leaders is not logically or consciously capable of making.

    Long since i last checked on your blog "i'm an early blogger too" , good to see you ahead .. great job

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  3. A US supported coup would be a disaster. It could end up as different elements of the Army fighting each other.

    And a coup without US support would be nearly impossible. To arrange a coup while evading internal security AND the CIA/NSA, etc would be quite a feat. It's not like they aren't watching for that. The US may have given a wink and a nod to Nasser's coup because they wanted to dismantle the British empire and replace it themselves. But now that they are he empire...they like things the way they are.

    They might, however, support a coup if they thought SCAF was loosing control. But then we would just have a new SCAF. Or worse, civil war.

    Best choice is to keep pushing and gradually the Army will have to let go, like in Turkey. Do not be discouraged that it isn't happening over night.

    Thanks for keeping us expats, informed.

    Tahya Misr.

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  4. @Zeinobia, "There is a scary scenario the army would be divided and have a fight because of the coup as we are not speaking about something like 1952 where a small group who would have been executed for grand treason if late king Farouk had ordered the rest of the army to end them." your claim that the free officers were "a small group" is inaccurate. President Nasser was extremely smart and organized person. He was able to recruit a large number of small ranked officers (some of them had parents and relatives who worked inside the palace)to join the movement without knowing about him. Its also a fact (exclusively for your blog)that King Farouk knew about the free officers movement before 1952 revolution, and according to Antoine Polly, for some reason he did not want to do anything about it.

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  5. Faithful reader12/22/2011 09:08:00 AM

    Dear Zeinab, it's a coup, not a coupe.
    Best

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  6. Khaled:

    Oh my God, you've went so far!!!
    I'm not known for being optimistic among my friends, but that doesn't mean to get that far without any realistic basis.

    The internal military coup is highly unlikely for several reasons:
    1. It needs a few years of planning and forming and no one in the army was doing that before Jan. 25th. So, assuming they began on that day, they won't be ready by now or even by Jun. 30th.

    2. They need a high ranked officer so that people will support them, like Free Officers did by appointing Mohamed Naguib as their leader. This point is not met, since anyone who reached the rank of Major General in the past 10 years was chosen carefully, and believe me, you will not find any General to lead such a coup.

    3. The army will not be divided now. All the council members are working together and the only clash could happen between Tantawi and Anan and this won't lead to any division, since most know how it will end.

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  7. I have been expecting a coup within the military for a long time - yet everybody said that this would never happen. For me, it is one of the most possible next steps.
    El Qamar

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  8. The last thing needed is a charismatic military leader, who will slowly transform himself into another “charismatic” dictator. We all know where that road ends. What is absolutely required is a military that firmly places itself under the authority of a civilian government, or what is often the case a constitutional head of state (a figurehead, within a parliamentary political system) The transition from charismatic leadership to sound and functioning institution, not as easy as it sounds, but vital for this country’s future, and something that has existed before. And yes, this existed prior to 1952.

    One possible scenario is the formation of a provisional ‘National Salvation Government’ formed unilaterally by a unified front of all presidential candidates in cabinet positions, and the firm endorsement of all political parties, who have only just recently obtained a political legitimacy from the recent election. This government can be unilaterally declared from Tahrir, that is sufficient in de-jure and de-facto terms for it to become the only legitimate authority in Egypt. The military would be invited to declare its absolute allegiance to this body, failing which SCAF becomes automatically an illegal and illegitimate entity, at which point the regular army is invited to replace this rebellious body with a leadership willing to place itself under the authority of the national consensus, as represented by the provisional National Salvation Government. The international body would have no choice but to back the choice of the consensus of the nation of Egypt, and it becomes the only legal authority, so recognized nationally and internationally. By failing to come to some sort of provisional unified position all the political parties in Egypt at present have shown a distinct lack of leadership and lack of political will in their present efforts in jockeying for future political acsendency.

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  9. l'armée doit laissé une chance aux pouvoir civil oui ses les islamistes au gagné mais il faut respecté tout les traité international le droit de l hommes .
    et aussi les droits des coptes pas de religieux sectaire.
    comme les salafistes qui au lieu de parlé de l'économie va parlé de bikini et alcool.
    l islam politique ce qui inquiète.
    l'armée eux vaut voir leurs aide baissé.
    et l'europe aussi cars ses des islamistes qui on gagné pas les libéraux et la zone euro va mal.
    je pense l aide doit venir des pays du golf
    l'arabie saoudite.
    qui on financer les islamistes'
    l'armée a peur de perdre le pouvoir est l 'économie......................................

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  10. The problem comes from the fact that the military is in charge. That never works because for them anyone not in the military is the "enemy". It's like giving a man a hammer. Pretty soon everything starts to look like a nail. I hope you understand this example

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  11. "I am not that worried about Islamists take over that much because they are taking it through democratic elections whether we like it or not. "

    and this is where you should be afraid. The Islamists are playing the poor ones who believe that a man with a beard cannot be bad.

    Once the Islamists are in power, however, they will do away with

    - democracy (no need for it)
    - tourism (no need for it)
    - foreign investment (no need for it)
    - beer, whine (haram)
    - music (haram)
    - cinema (haram)
    - driving license for women (against their nature)
    - birthday celebrations (haram)
    - most public holidays (haram)

    But you will have thousands of Egyptians with hands amputated (Sha'aria Law)

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  12. Thanks for discussing the centrality to egypt's view of itself, which is very different from say me (i think of it as an expensive nuisance in need of being abolished or sharply reduced, living safey&submissively under the thumb of the US & EU as the UK does). But please could you clarify about the conscripts? Here in USA&UK,conscripts (eg during Vietnam) are seen as critical and independent-minded, not having 'bought into' the army, and there is a strong, open tradition, in the UK, USA & Israel, of people joining the army but going on to disagree with it or with its war or conduct, either leaving it or giving newspaper interviews, writing books, or refusing to serve, because they feel strongly about this wrong. For instance, while most troops here are vocal in their support of the war, some have changed their mind, left the army and give talks and campaign against the Iraq or Afghanistan involvement, even joining the peace movement. If the situation in Egypt is similar, there must be a high proportion of the army who criticise it because it is nearly all conscripts, isn't it? So, don't most of the lowest ranks organise against the SCAF? Also, since the main business of your army, as far as i have read, is not military but is to make money by controlling hotels and running concrete factories, bakeries and other businesses which i read are mainly staffed by the conscripts, who serve 2 years, don't they get annoyed having to do 2 years unskilled manual labour and why don't they just go on strike? I am always wondering about this, like a lot of things about Egypt, i can't figure it out. Thanks a lot, maia

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  13. The way the US uses the annual 1.5 billion dollars slated for administering the Egyptian army will be a significant determinant factor in deciding the army's political future.

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  14. In answer to Maia; At the moment the military forces deployed against the Tahrir protestors are from the special forces, both commando’s and paratroopers, as well as highly trained police anti-terrorist professional units. There are no regular, run of the mill conscripts amongst these units. It is possible that SCAF is unwilling to deploy regular army units for fear that they may face a mutiny and a general refusal of orders. As such these elite units currently deployed around Tahrir are considered reliable and will follow orders without question. Whilst the rank and file are conscripts, their NCO’s are regulars and they are all hand picked and receive special indoctrination.
    May I point out that the ‘Bloody Sunday’ massacres in Northern Ireland in 1972 was perpetrated by the Parachute Regiment of the British army, again elite units, reliable who will follow orders without question.
    Its as if the unarmed Tahrir protestors were faced by the Parachute regiment, the Royal Marine Commnado’s and the SAS regiment all at the same time, and not for one afternoon but for 4 solid days and nights. Which is why this situation is so extraordinary.

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  15. @Demeur 09:17:00 PM. Haha. What are you, like nine? Or just a retard.

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  16. Ahavat Eretz Israel12/23/2011 12:21:00 PM

    <>

    Funny, that all such highly trained forces could not prevent street children to burn down the National Archives.

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