Thursday, December 2, 2004

The Syrian Proposal for peace

Ok from Two days ago or more ,the Syrian Foregin affair minister Farouk Al-Shar' annonced on behalf of the Syrian regime that Syria is ready to go back to the negotiations with Iseral with no conditions
an important announcement from the Syrian part ,followed by a visit by the Syrian President himself Bashar El-Assad (I like this handsome tall man despite being a son of an awful dictator)to Sharm El-shekih in Egypt (an excellent resort in Egypt ,visit it guys if you can) to meet with Mubarak of Egypt , for a complete discussions on the new proposal,also on the Iraq issue.
And of course Egypt for its role in the Peace process in Mid East, said it will discuss with the Iseralis and it supports Syria and many of this fancy talk

but what about the other side?
Well the Iserali Prime Minister made many statements first we have our own conditions then I don't believe them then whatever!!
then some news today I read in An arabic news site ( An excellent one in fact )that both Bashar and Sharon will meet soon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ok how do I analysis what happened ,simple

The change in syrian attitudes goes to the attempts of Syria to look like a good country especailly after the Security concuil decision regarding the existence of syria in Lebanon
I won't say the americans has to do with anything in the changing of attitudes because Syrians don't give a damn to the U.S ,and even to the world not because the regime is dictatorship one but it is in their culture (some day I will explain this )
Yet syrians Made the proposal and they knew that for large percetage Iseral's Sharon won't accpet it ,a dipolmatic game

But I guess (my guess was right when I said Barghouti is going to be a candidate in Palestinian elections) that Sharon will go for the game this time ,even if it reaches nothing and it will reach nothing
for many things:

1-Iseral won't leave Gollan heights easily ,it was the old Assad fault that he hadn't make a real good army to return a part of his land so he can negotiate on stable land plus he didn't join Sadaat ,may be he would have returned his land if he had joined,

2- syria won't destory HazbAllah of Lebanon ,first it is supported by a powerful country then Syria ,Iran which also is from its allies,second the Lebanese people will hate Syria for this , HazbAllah is popular in Lebanon ,also Syria will lose the shiia support in Lebanon and it had already lost the chistian support in it ,Lebanon is the natural extension of Syria and its indirect front

3- the Water problem ,I know that already Syria is having problems with Turkey because of Water and it is main supply is Tabria lake and it won't make Iseral drink from it (I will check the reasons why )

this from the syrian side ,but I don't know much the Iserali conditions

anyway why do I guess sharon will go for it
well the man is facing a big trouble ,and he seems he won't have a chance for another round ,also his government is on the brink of destruction , not to mention his war-on-terrorism policy of killing and building walls didn't have any good result at all so why doesn't he try something new like Peace ? and with whom ?Syrians sounds a good idea

This will give general Sharon a popularity in some way or another in Peace supporters in Iseral so he can fill the gap after the problem with the Radical and religious parties ( also a diplomatic game from his side)

anyway time only will tell
(think twice about my guesses ,I was right about Barghouti :)


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