Tuesday, November 30, 2010

The Cablegate And Egypt : The First Batch Goes On “2”

And now this is the post dedicated to the cables at the Wikileaks Cablegate website itself.
The U.S Embassies in the Middle East have a big share in that released batch , if you look to the graph down that the main home page of Cablegate website. Of course you must bear in mind that may be because this released batch deals with the presence more than the past , I am sure that if  we goes back to 1970s and 1960s we will find that the cables from the Eastern bloc is more than other cables. “By the way the website is too confusing when it comes to browsing”
Based on tags I was able to find Egypt as EG at last.
You can browse the cables about Egypt here. Already 5 of these cables were covered in the previous post. Now the cables in the Wikileaks’ Cablegate website are more explosive especially one where Gamal Mubarak speaks directly with congressmen about regional politics and national security.
Here are summaries of the cables with highlighted interesting parts. Again GOE stands for government of Egypt , GOI stands for government of Israel  , EGIS stands for Egyptian intelligence service and CODEL stands for congressional delegation.
It was very controversial meeting starting from the fact that Gamal Mubarak attended it along his father and Omar Soliman. Strangely our ministry of foreign affairs was not there !! There is no official explanation why on earth and heavens why Gamal Mubarak attends such meeting considering the fact his role in Egypt officially is a partisan role nothing more , nothing else; of course unofficially he is groomed to be the next president of Egypt by his father and their party or as the cable described him as presidential son . I remember that in the WEF Sharm El-Sheikh it was his big show for the Presidential son where he brought his new bride Dija and he participated for the first time in a panel with Ehud Barak and Tony Blair. Back to the meeting you will find the Palestinian-Israeli conflict , Iraq and Iran besides the Egyptian-American relations are being discussed. As usual Mubarak told the Americans that he warned Cheney from the invasion of Iraq and the later did not listen !!
Asked about U.S.-Egypt relations, Mubarak confirmed that "we have very good relations with the U.S.," but "your administration is not well-informed." However, "I am patient by nature," he said, in apparent reference to U.S. criticisms over human rights and democratization
I love the part of “ I am patient by nature” so what you are going to do Mr. President if your patience is over !!??
Mubarak said that Egypt might be forced to
begin its own nuclear weapons program if Iran succeeds in those efforts.

No wonder Israel is worried !!!?? Who said that Egyptians are terrified from Nuclear Iran !!??
Asked about whether the U.S. should set a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq, Mubarak said "you cannot leave" because "you would leave Iran in control." Mubarak explained his recipe for a way forward: "strengthen the armed forces, relax your hold, and then you will have a coup. Then we will have a dictator, but a fair one. Forget democracy, the Iraqis are by their nature too tough."
In WEF then 
And the jewel of what Mubarak said on that day , on his views on how we would have a new democratic Iraq in the region by having a fair dictator installed !!?? That is the recipe of Mubarak on how the States would live Iraq. Because the Iraqis are too tough by nature so they need a fair dictator , you know the fair dictator theory of Abdel Rahman Al Kawakibi , it seems that the president believes in it !! That recipe is by far very interesting because it presents the old political school in the Arab world which believes that if you strengthen the arm forces in corrupted society , the arm forces  will rebel against the chaos.  There is no doubt that Mubarak fears having a democratic state in the region not that the States will really bring democracy but democracy is infectious. For sure Iraqis need one a strong man to bring back the unity of a nation separated by ethnicity and sectarianism and for sure they are not aliens to the coup d’etat in fact all their presidents since the 1950s were brought to power through coup d’etat. Still the Iraqis deserve better especially after Saddam and the American occupation.Back to Mubarak I wonder if he really strengthens the Egyptian army after reading this knowing the fear from the coup d'etat.
Omar Soliman clearly does not like Iran and Shiite altogether as he spoke about the Iranian growing influence in the region and how the Egyptian regime was standing against it. He also spoke about how Egypt was working to solve the regional problems on three tracks “just like what his president loves to say” : Palestine , Lebanon and Iraq.
On Lebanon, speaking a week before the Doha agreement was penned, Soliman said the three problems are Syria's large influence, lack of power of the majority over militia forces, and weak Arab support for the government. Syria is seeking a deal with Israel and the U.S. over returning the Golan and canceling the Hariri tribunal to lessen its meddling and Lebanon needs a strong, nationalist army. Soliman bemoaned that the Arab states have too poor relations with Syria to push them effectively.
So let me get this straight Soliman wants a strong Lebanese army then why he and his president are not helping that army now !!?
Soliman advocated making Iran suffer economically to be "too busy with its people" to make problems in Iraq. Reducing Iranian influence will help the Iraqi government become one, and not a competition between Sunni and Shi'a. he said.
So this is the general’s recipe on how to combat the Iranian influence in Iraq !!Make a major oil exporter suffer economically to be too busy with its people. My dear general this is not how to create a national unity in the Iraq I am afraid. May be the Arab Iraqi Shiite will return back to their Arab roots if there is real Arab nationalism.
Asked about the consequences of any U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear capabilities, Soliman said such an attack would not destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities and would only unite Iranians with their leadership and against the U.S. He repeated the need to make Iran "busy with its people" by effective sanctions, citing the successful example of Libya.
So the general and his president were with the economic sanctions of Libya !!? I thought that they are best buddies with Gaddafi , well sorry they are best buddies with Gaddafi not the best buddies with the Libyan people.
Now we go to junior , Gamal Mubarak.
Gamal opined that the "battle lines are clearer for Egypt than ever before" on regional issues.
Battle , battle , battle , why everything is a battle line for him !!?? Strangely he skipped his military service and is a civilian from top to bottom.
Other regional issues such as Iran and Lebanon are "much more complicated," he said; "the picture is not that rosy."
And why does he speak about Lebanon and Iran in the first place ?? Rosy , the picture is not rosy !!?
Representative Shays asked Gamal's opinion of Syria President Bashar Al Assad, to which Gamal replied that "he understands the world better than his father," but that he is worried that opening up politically or economically could result in a loss of control.
Ok I am so curious to know why Chris Shays asked Gamal Mubarak about Bashar Al Assad in the first place , may be Shays thought that both were friends as their fathers were or they were just friends as Middle eastern presidential sons or may be because Gamal Mubarak wants to be like Bashar Al Assad following his footsteps !!??
Representative Fortenberry asked about how to counter a developing Iranian nuclear program. Egypt and Saudi Arabia, as well as Jordan, are the "heavyweights" that can counter Iran, Gamal said, but he advocated movement on the Israeli/Palestinian track to remove a prime issue that Iran can use as a pretext.
Why on earth and heaven Gamal Mubarak speaks about the Iranian nuclear program in the first place !!?? Of course his pathetic answer shows how poor his strategy when it comes to regional politics !!
  • The third cable was the summary of a 60 minutes meeting between Sen. John Kerry and President Mubarak in Sharm El-Sheikh where they discussed regional issues. The cable was sent on July 31st , 2008. What was unique about this meeting that it did not include only the usual talk about regional issues from Iran , Iraq and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict but it also included Sudan and Zimbabwe, yes Zimbabwe.
Zimbabwe was brought in to the discussion because Mubarak had hosted the African union summit in Sharm El-Sheikh the previous “Mubarak was actually tired”. The Americans were angry from inviting Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe to the summit and Mubarak fired back saying that :
The British were behind this "big fuss" and that the pressure from other African leaders was "sufficiently soft that Mugabe can do what he wants."
Of course Kerry knows deep inside there is no big difference between Mugabe and Mubarak.
Kerry also wondered about why the Sudanese issues were not discussed openly in the summit and Mubarak had a very interesting point of view !!?
He also said "this issue could have been worked out" if it were not debated so publicly because "two tribes always work things out." Mubarak noted Egypt's attempts to "try and help the (Sudanese) people" through the Egyptian hospital in Sudan and the efforts of EGIS Director Omar Suleiman to advise on North-South negotiations.
I do not think the efforts of Omar Soliman were useless because now after one month the Sudan may spilt two countries !!
Kerry also asked Mubarak about Iraq and Mubarak did not have a good opinion about PM Nour El-Maliki “I wonder if he still has it”
"I am not critical. He came to Cairo. I gave him my phone number but he hasn't called us." He noted that Egypt offered to host and train Iraqi forces, but that the offer had not been acted upon by the Iraqis.
Telephone number !!?? call me , call me  !! Was he serious !!? Of course the only good thing in that was how Egypt offered to host and train Iraqi forces.
Now when it comes to the Iranians , Mubarak did not and does not trust them, they are big fat liars to him !!
He urged the U.S. to be wary of what Iran says. "They are big, fat liars and justify their lies because they believe it is for a higher purpose." He said he believes this opinion is shared by other leaders in the region. Nonetheless, he opined that no Arab state will join the U.S. in a defense relationship vis-a-vis Iran out of fear of "sabotage and Iranian terrorism." He said Iran's sponsorship of terrorism is well-known but I cannot say it publicly. It would create a dangerous situation." Mubarak said that sanctions are the best hope for containing Iran, but Arab states won't dare to endorse them.
There is no doubt that the Iranian Arab relations have not been ever good even in the time of Shah due to the old stupid rivalry thing between Arabs and Persians , there is no doubt that the Arabs in the Gulf fear the wrath of Tehran still these opinions are Mubarak’s and do not represent the Egyptian people’s views despite the fact he is the Egyptian president. Why did not he want the Americans to listen to the Iranians !!?? What if the Iranians were honest and did not lie to the Americans regardless of the later of the intentions !!?
G. W Bush was the president of the United States back then in 2008.
  • The fourth cable was on the request of Abu El-Gait to meet Hilary Clinton after the inauguration Barack Obama. It was sent from the American Embassy on February 9th , 2009. It was covered in the previous post.
  • The fifth cable was sent from the secretary of State to several embassies in the region on February 18th , 2009 and it was an urgent cable. It was an action requests from the embassies in Cairo, Amman, Riyadh , Kuwait city , Manama and Abu Dhabi. The U.S wanted its embassies in these Arab capitals to warn the Arab officials from some arms deal between Russia and Iran. Moscow was going to supply Tehran with the S-300 air defense system and so the American embassies in these Arab countries should warn the Arab officials in order that these officials would raise the matter directly with the Russians. FYI Syria and Algeria if I am mistaken have got that air defense system.
  • The Sixth cable was sent from the U.S Embassy in Cairo to Washington on the April 30th, 2009 and it was about the meeting between Omar Soliman and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff admiral Michael Mullen on April 21, 2009. They discussed the regional goal of combating radicalism in Gaza , Iran and Sudan besides tackling the issue of piracy in Somalia.
Again our spy chief can’t stomach Iran and believes that Egypt should confront Iranian attempts to smuggle arms to Gaza . He believes that Egypt is being circulated with radicalism !!
"Egypt is circled by radicalism," he continued, expressing concern over instability in Sudan and Somalia as well. Egypt's own successful campaign against radicalism in the 1990s provided a useful lesson in how to counteract extremist groups by reducing their ability to operate and raise funds, in additional to educating people on the dangers of extremism. Soliman noted that only the Muslim Brotherhood remained and the Egyptian government continued to "make it difficult" for them to operate.
So is “making it difficult” for General Soliman means violating the basic human rights !!?
"We do not want incidents like Gaza to inflame public anger," Soliman said, adding that the Gaza conflict put "moderate (Arab) regimes" in a corner.
Regardless of describing a war as an incident , it is good that he admitted that there is something called public anger and that conflict put the Egyptian regime in a corner.
"Gaza in the hands of radicals will never be calm." The problem, however, is that the PA cannot return to Gaza without Hamas' acquiescence.
So Hamas is radical group and Gaza , I do not know how the Hamas officials will welcome his men and sit with them if he does not respect them , the Wikileaks have just blew the Palestinian-Palestinian factions talks.
Stability in Gaza also depends on giving people a more "normal" life, Soliman continued, saying Israel must be convinced to regularly open the border crossings for legitimate commercial activity. The current system - where Egypt informs Israel of a humanitarian shipment and Israel waits two days before accepting or rejecting the shipment for transfer to Gaza - does not adequately meet people's needs.
Well this is true and I can’t disagree with him.
We will move then to Iran ……………..
Iran was also trying to recruit support from the Sinai Bedouins, he claimed, in order to facilitate arms smuggling to Gaza.
He claimed .. this is a very dangerous accusation in which he should thank God that the mainstream media in Egypt is scared from mentioning it not to mention his name because I am sure that our locals in Sinai will be very angry from that accusation.
Soliman said Egypt had sent a clear message to Iran that if they interfere in Egypt, Egypt will interfere in Iran, adding that EGIS had already begun recruiting agents in Iraq and Syria.
I do not know which is worse : recruiting agents in Iraq or Syria as Arab countries or the fact that we have begun recruiting agents we should have agents from the beginning or that Egyptian clear message !!??
History fact : During the Nasserite era when Egypt really mastered the game of interfering in other countries internal affairs , we failed to cooperate with the Iranian nationalists against the Shah with the help of Russia because simply we were adopting Arab nationalism while they were Iranian Persian nationalists
"If you want Egypt to cooperate with you on Iran, we will," Soliman added, "it would take a big burden off our shoulders."
Insh Allah this day will not come , strangely publicly Mubarak warns from any confrontation with Iran.
"Egypt does not want a divided Sudan,

Admiral Mullen replied that Egypt's leadership on Sudan was critical and looked forward to increased cooperation between Egypt and Special Envoy Gration.
My Sudanese friends will not like this leadership on Sudan for sure.
There was a considerable shift in the Egyptian’s view regarding Iraqi PM Al-Maliki compared to what Mubarak said about him from a year before in Sharm El-Sheikh.
According to Soliman, President Mubarak told King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia "not to search for another man," but should instead accept Maliki as Iraq's leader and support him.
Soliman stressed that Egypt suffers from Iranian interference, through its Hezbollah and Hamas proxies, and its support for Egyptian groups like Jamaatt al-Islamiyya and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Did not the Egyptian security crack down the Jamatt Al-Islamiyya taming it forever !!?
Soliman said that Iran heeded Egypt's warning against meddling in domestic affairs (ref B) and supporting groups like the Muslim Brotherhood. He received a "very positive message" from Iran's intelligence chief indicating that Iran would not interfere in Egypt. Egypt planned to "remain quiet inside Iran" for the time being, but would continue to recruit agents who "will do what we ask," if Iran insists on interfering in Egypt. "We hope Iran will stop supporting Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood and other cells" within Egypt Soliman said, "but if not - we are ready."
"We are ready for good relations with Iran," Soliman noted, but only if Iran ceased interfering and supporting terrorists in the region.
I do not understand that so much hate to the Iranians to the level can be translated to racism , is this an attempt to win the Americans hearts and minds or it is a real hate !!?  The thing is that Omar Soliman and Mubarak reminds with the Egyptian officials like Ali Sabri who was once in the USSR and said during some official dinner party that he was ready to lose his son in a war against the bloody capitalist Americans !!
Soliman and his guest moved to Palestine , Syria and then Yemen
Yemen and said Egypt was trying to help President Saleh, including by providing information on Iranian and Qatari support to the al-Houthi insurgents.
So the Qatari supports Al-Houthi insurgents , I did not see that coming , no wonder Prince Hamid spoke bad about us with Senator Kerry in last Feb 2010 !!
I think I will stop at this cable , there are still cables with Egypt’s direct and indirect mentions.
These cables will not damage Mubarak’s image in the region nor his son because simply their images are already damaged outside and inside Egypt , still the one whose image will be damaged dramatically is Omar Soliman who is also groomed to be the next President of Egypt. There are Egyptian nationalists who put hopes on the man for his military background  and his popularity in the Egyptian army yet what it was mentioned in the cables proves for something we already know : He is Mubarak’s best man !!
This is the regime’s man in the end of the day , he will not stay in his position more than any other spy chief in Egypt “Since 1993” if he is not Mubarak’s man. Of course the media in Egypt does not dare to mention his name directly even online original Dostor not to mention they are avoiding about Egypt’s share in the cablegate but anyone can make quick search and find out who is that very important security official the documents speak about !!


  1. Mubarak noted Egypt's attempts to "try and help the (Sudanese) people" through the Egyptian hospital in Sudan and the efforts of EGIS Director Omar Suleiman to advise on North-South negotiations.

    Setting up a hospital is supposed to be a solution to a protracted political problem...???

    It is clear from the leaks that Egypt has its political compass firmly set towards the Mediterranean basin and what lies East: Palestine / Israel, Lebanon and Syria and Iraq and Iran...

    This 'neglect' or mismanagement of Egypt's role in Africa is exactly what most Sudanese specialists and some Egyptian specialists have been lamenting.

    As for Egyptian leadership in Sudan, I really hope you don't believe those words...
    The American official was obviously inflating an already copious Egyptian nationalistic delusion of grandeur...

    Egypt was 'absent' at Machakos, Naivasha and Nairobi - the three locations / rounds of negotiation that led to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the right of self-determination for the peoples of South Sudan...

    I think the Egyptian regime washed its hands of Sudan decades ago and thinks that as long as it's figurative qibla is northwards facing - whether to Washington or Tel Aviv - that they will be fine - and only time will tell...

  2. @Africanist: Im afraid the leaks show that the regime washed its hands from us the ppl of Egypt and the country he shld be caring for the most, and you are taking about Egypt and Sudan and Africa!! Your words make sense if we were in a situation w normal performing regime.
    Plz let us grieve in peace wt was revealed by the leaks, nt that it was so surprising, they do confirm the perception many of us had about those running the region but to see it for real and so bluntly, left me shaken.

  3. Well what the leaks tell me is that Egypt is weak, weak, weak!

  4. Mubarak, Soliman and Gamal's comments may not be popular but they sound realistic and pragmatic in view of Middle Eastern treacherous politics.
    Iran has never forgotten or forgiven the Suni and will try everything to push forward their religious ideology in the area.
    The Canadian.

  5. Realism and pragmatism must be founded on popular support - that is the only way these policies will be sustainable.

    Are the comments you made reference to backed by popular support and therefore sustainable?

  6. @Z, format problem for me on Firefox with this post. The yellow highlighted sections don't wrap. They are each one huge line, so there is a horizontal scroll bar. On Internet Explorer it's fine though.

  7. It works fine on Safari, Chrome and IE !! I do not know what it is wrong

  8. Thank you Z for this excellent compilation of documents. These cables expose a weak and fearful regime in Egypt that has reduced its role in the region to being an "informant" for the US officials.

    What the documents do not reveal is the pressure the US exerts on the Egyptian regime to take steps against Iran. And by excluding this information (since there are many other documents not published), these documents offer a somewhat misleading portrayal of the US as favouring 'engagement', while the Egyptian regime urges the use of force. The truth may be more complex than the published documents suggest as noted in this article:


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