Sunday, December 16, 2012

#EgyConstitution : Referendum Stage #1 Results

And the results of the first Stage form the constitution referendum in 10 governroates have been announced.
According to Al Watan newspaper 56% of the voters said yes to the draft constitution while the 44% said No.
To be honest I know people who expected even worse results "Yes 70%-No 30%".
Yes I wish that "No" would have scored more but to achieve this result after one week of campaigning only and weeks of not knowing what will be next considering we live in a country where the president cancels his decision at 2.30 AM !!!!
There are important remarks about the results : 
  • "No" votes are more in the cities than in country side. 
  • Liberal and National forces and parties should try to reach for faraway governorates
  • I do not understand how Sinai "Whether the North or South" or Aswan "especially Aswan" when the draft constitution totally ignore the rights of the ethic groups and the culture diversity. 
  • Watch out for Cairo , Alexandria , Gharbia and Daqahlia. 
  • It seems that Alexandria proves the myth of the Salafist stronghold is totally wrong
  • Many of the voters who voted yes are not Muslim brotherhood or Islamsits but rather from those Egyptians who believe that "Yes" will bring Stability from their point of view believing what they hear in the Egyptian National radio and TV. 
  • With all the violations that took place yesterday and this is the result than people should not lose hope and they should be encouraged to go and vote. 
  • The turnout is 31% so if we add to those who boycotted as well who did not go because they do not care or feel confused to those who said No , you will have a constitution not approved by too many people
  • I believe the more the people vote , the more it will be hard to rig the results 
  • You must know the tune of the MB is different now , instead of 90% of the people approve the constitution now the MB members are speaking about examples 
Ironically and sadly enough there are still difference between the unofficial results announced so far as we are waiting for the official statement of the referendum committee but as a reference I prefer Al Watan newspaper as it present a fine interactive map with the results. 
Here is the 10 governorates "Numbers from Al Watan newspaper" : 

Aswan : "South"
  • Yes : 73%
  • No : 27 % 
  • No. eligible voters : 808,280
  • No. of votes counted last night : 203,416
  • Poverty Rate : 54% 
  • Illiteracy Rate : 23%
Sohag : "Upper Egypt"
  • Yes : 79%
  • No : 21%
  • No. of eligible voters :2,340,851
  • No of votes counted last night : 569,329
  • Poverty Rate : 59% 
  • Illiteracy Rate : 39%
Assuit : "Upper Egypt"
  • Yes : 76% 
  • No : 24% 
  • No. of eligible voters : 2,080,391
  • No. of votes counted last night : 590,675
  • Poverty Rate : 69% 
  • Illiteracy Rate: 39%
Cairo : "Capital"
  • Yes : 43% 
  • No : 57%
  • No. of eligible voters : 6,491,521
  • No. of votes counted last night : 2,206,780
  • Poverty Rate : 10%
  • Illiteracy Rate : 19%
El Sharkia : "Nile Delta"
  • Yes : 66%
  • No : 34%
  • No. of eligible voters : 3,495,451
  • No. of votes counted last night : 1,124,546
  • Poverty Rate: 12%
  • Illiteracy Rate : 32%
Dakhalia : "Nile Delta" 
  • Yes : 55% 
  • No : 45% 
  • No. of eligible voters : 3,666,554
  • No. of votes counted last night : 1,173,102
  • Poverty Rate: 12%
  • Illiteracy Rate : 28%
El Gharbia : "Nile Delta" 
  • Yes : 48%
  • No: 52%
  • No. of eligible voters : 2,907,544
  • No. of votes counted last night : 959,453
  • Poverty Rate : 8% 
  • Illiteracy Rate : 26%
Alexandria : "North"
  • Yes : 36% 
  • No : 64%
  • No. of eligible voters : 3,286,831
  • No. of votes counted last night : 170,529 
  • Poverty Rate : 11% 
  • Illiteracy Rate : 19% 
North Sinai : "Sinai" 
  • Yes : 78% 
  • No : 22% 
  • No. of eligible voters : 207,425
  • No. of votes counted last night : 64,982
  • Poverty Rate : 24% 
  • Illiteracy Rate : 21% 
South Sinai : "Sinai 
  • Yes : 63% 
  • No: 37% 
  • No. of eligible voters : 62,432
  • No. of votes counted last night : 18,440
  • Poverty Rate : 12% 
  • Illiteracy Rate : 7%
    Now you should read this important analysis 
    Unfortunately I am fighting terrible cold so I can not write long analysis now.


    1. Thank you for this outstanding coverage. If 56-44% yes vote is, in fact, true then Morsi and the MB lose. A Constitution requires overwhelming legitimacy. A 44% dissent rules out legitimacy. If the second round is like the first and the MB claims victory then says, 'Let's move on,' there will be problems as more people find out about the document contents. One complaint may be the very short time the people had to consider how the document was drawn up and the rushed election date just days after the document was released.

      Keep up the great work.

      1. I have never read so much crap on the internet about Egypt than in these last 2 years : )

        First This is about a constitution not Morsi or MB.

        Second 56% Yes means it is legitimate. Check out Turkeys 2010 constitutional referendum with 58% which was seen as perfectly legitimate. Or check out Frances last Presidential elections where Hollande won by 51% !!!

        Third you have not included the ex pats or the second round in your estimations.

        Fourth it's time that Egyptians understood democracy and it is not calling something illegitimate just because your team lost.

      2. The crap is to mix election for a post,where simple majority is adquate and ratifying the Constitution. Just check legitimate cases where super majority of 67% and even 75% are needed. Yet, you can also choose a mdel from the lousy bunch.


    3. In spite of several elections, dynamics are still fluid and it is a bit early to make analytical sence of numbers. Yet, in this phase, it is interesting Alexanderia figures reflect the result of the country.

    4. Much prefer the new layout of the blog. Well done.

    5. They are not genuinely different. Here is another similarity that passed my mind.
      The delusioners and the delusioned.
      Quote : "mass movements like Communism, Fascism and Nazism had a common trait in picturing Western democracies and their values as decadent, with people "too soft, too pleasure-loving and too selfish" to sacrifice for a higher cause, which for them implies an inner moral and biological decay. He further claims that those movements offered the prospect of a glorious, yet imaginary, future to frustrated people, enabling them to find a refuge from the lack of personal accomplishments in their individual existence. Individuality is then assimilated into a compact collective body and "fact-proof screens from reality" are established.” Their dreams were all different, but whatever they dreamed, the deluded were miserably aware that they were prisoners. If in their dreams they roamed over green grass or through city streets, it could mean only that they had tricked their deluders and escaped, or had been released in error and were now wanted men.They have passed the stage to look backward,because they have no backward. That total, blissful forgetfulness of their shackles was denied them. The People did not mean all those who speak their language, nor yet the chosen few branded with the fiery mark of genius. Neither birth nor the labor of your hands nor the privileges of education admit you to membership of the People.Only your soul can do that.And each of fashions his soul himself, year in and year out.You must strive to temper and to cut and polish your soul so as to become a human being. And hence a humble component of your people.A man with such a soul cannot as a rule expect to prosper, to go far in his career, to get rich. Which is why for the most part “the People” is not to be found at the higher levels of society.”Blow the dust off the clock. Your watches are behind the times. Throw open the heavy curtains which are so dear to you -- you do not even suspect that the day has already dawned outside.
      Do you recognize yourselves ? .

    6. There is likely numerical error in Alexanderia data(No. of votes counted last night : 170,529). This figure is too low to be true.

    7. People tends to forget that morsi's win in elections was only 51%.. raising from 51% to 57% is UP not down..

    8. Excellent piece and appreciated effort Zeinobia:)Indeed the high turnout at the ballots is key to reject this dreadful Constitution Draft..Go Egyptians and protect your future and your children's future...The MB is losing big time and they'll pay dearly for their wrong-doing!


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